WTNT25 KNHC 010241
TCMAT5
HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1500
0300Z SUN OCT 01 2000
CORRECTION...CENTER IS NOT INLAND IN 72 HOURS

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 87.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 87.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 87.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.3N 87.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N 87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 87.1W

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 21.0N 87.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 24.0N 88.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

FORECASTER LAWRENCE