Ten day Weather Outlook for Belize: Sunday, June 7, 2015

Here is the ten-day outlook. Expect wet conditions this week, especially late Thursday through Friday and Saturday.

Local flash flood conditions likely in the hilly areas on Friday and Saturday.

Two tropical waves will cross Belize during the next ten-days. The first will reach the country this Wednesday morning, while the other tropical wave will approach the country on Friday. A low will evolved from the second tropical wave over Belize during Friday, and will then drift NNE over the weekend (See Figure 1 and Figure 2 below).

A short-wave upper level trough in the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico will provide outflow for the convective activity associated with the first tropical wave crossing the country, then an upper level high over southern Mexico and the NW Caribbean will favor strong uplift and outflow for the convection associated with the approaching, second tropical wave late Thursday night and Friday of this week.

The GFS-MNSPRD global ensemble forecast model is resolving intense convective activity over coastal waters and the mainland of Belize and Yucatan this coming Thursday, Friday and early Saturday. The GFS model is also resolving an 850 mb vorticity maximum traversing coastal waters of Belize and extending into the Bay of Campeche on Friday, in 2 association with the surface disturbance in the extreme NW Caribbean and Belize.

Hence, expect increasing outbreaks of scattered showers and thunderstorms later on Monday through Wednesday, increasing in intensity late Thursday night and Friday. The models are resolving 24-hr rainfall rates in the range of 0.25 - 1.00 inch on Tuesday through Wednesday, especially over central areas and the coast, with local rates of near 1.50 - 2.00 inches in the elevated terrain. Expect rainfall rates of 0.50 inch - 2.00 inches on Friday through Saturday, with locally higher rates of 2.5 - 3.00 inches in hilly terrain. Farmers and folks in the hilly terrain of the Stann Creek, Cayo, and Toledo districts should remain vigilant for high probability of locally developing flash-flood conditions.

Weather conditions will continue seasonally unsettled over the coming weekend through Wednesday of next week. Daily rainfall rates will be in the range of 0.25 - 1.00 inch, especially over coastal districts and the hilly areas of central Belize. Soil moisture will be near field capacity by the end of the second rainfall event early next week.



Figure 1: NHC 48hr forecast surface map Valid for 6: 00 am, Wednesday, June 9, showing TW moving into Belize and Yucatan



Figure 2: NHC 72-hr forecast surface map valid for 6:00 am, Thursday, June 10, showing a second TW west of Jamaica, reaching Belize by Friday evening.

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