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#10837 - 09/30/00 05:08 AM Keith, later fri night...
Marty Online   happy
<img align=right height=202 width=230 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/2000-1.gif">Tropical Storm Keith is continuing to organize and strengthen, and now
moving toward the northwest at five miles an hour. With maximum
sustained winds of 50 miles an hour with higher gusts, he is now
located about 210 miles south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, expected
to veer to a north-northwesterly course.


Keith could become a hurricane tomorrow, Saturday. That prediction
indicates more rapid development than its earlier "some time this
weekend" forecast. Central pressure remains fairly steady at 995
millibars, or 29.38 inches.
<br clear=all>
<img align=right height=174 width=191 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/2000-1.jpg">

Personally, I'd guess a hurricane before lunch, and, if really
pressed, might bet on it not long after daybreak, And if anyone who
looked sober bet on one before sunup, I wouldn't take him up on it.


Satellite images also show the storm beginning to drag soggy Pacific
air over Nicaragua and Honduras and trigger heavy rains in those
countries.


If Keith holds anything like his predicted or even present course,
Belize is safe from a center strike. He's far enough north now that
he'd have to turn just about due west to smack us. Of course, northern
Belize, including Ambergris Caye, will be closer to the center track
than the rest of the country. But being in the southwest quadarant by
the time winds start to get really frisky is not so bad a prospect,
relieving us of high tides and battering waves, even the relatively
little ones that make it over the reef. They'll be outbound instead.

http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/CaribbeanLoop/


Tropical Storm Joyce, looking a wee bit more organized, continues to
approach the Caribbean, but if she doesn't veer northward, she's
doomed. A continued due-west course puts her center aground in
Venezuela. We'll have to keep alert to see that her low pressure
center doesn't subsequently try to go back in business over the Cradle
of Mitch north of Panama, but her beeline across the Atlantic is
ending up falling just that vital bit short of a bullseye passage into
the Caribbean.


Hurricane Isaac is well off to flee the lizards, appearing, subject to
Weather Service confirmation, to already be turning east of north out
in the broad north Atlantic.


And the tropical wave that had emerged from Africa during the weak has
been eaten by a large winged sea serpent, seen emerging from a termite
nest and eyeing events in our hemisphere at http://www.weather.com/weather/sat/tropsat_720x486.html


John Lankford

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-29-2000).]

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#10838 - 09/30/00 05:14 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...
finsterbaby Offline
shit. I'm supposed to fly in Saturday at like 2 PM. Oh man.... I don't even know if I should bother with the first leg into Miami at this point.

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#10839 - 09/30/00 05:21 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...
Marty Online   happy
Hell yes go, keith is heading enough north to hopefully just scoot by. check the maps on the first fri night posting...

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#10840 - 09/30/00 05:41 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...
finsterbaby Offline
Are you there now? Is it raining hard?

Hmmmmm. I definately want to go. But I'd postpone till next weekend if I had to. I'm only staying till Tuesday and want to get some diving in Sun & Monday. Wort case would be if it stalled and just rained heavily over the airport so I can't get in I guess.

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#10841 - 09/30/00 05:51 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...
Marty Online   happy
I'll find out the current weather, I am not there..

gimme an hour or so...
should slide on north...

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-29-2000).]

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#10842 - 09/30/00 05:53 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...
Anonymous
I am arriving on AC sunday afternoon for a week of diving. What do you think should I cancel the trip?

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#10843 - 09/30/00 05:57 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...
finsterbaby Offline
deacon, I'd probably wait till last minute before you decide to cancel. Unless of course the storm is going to affect the visability underwater for an extended time.

I'm thinking of cancellling mine mostly because it's a short trip and I'm supposed to fly into Belize the same time this could become hurricane force.

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#10844 - 09/30/00 05:59 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...
Marty Online   happy
check the top map, it should slide north...
if so, no affect on the water visibility...

too soon to tell for sure, just bloomed up today, might be gone tomorrow by this time...

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-29-2000).]

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#10845 - 09/30/00 06:06 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...
finsterbaby Offline
the weather channel has regular updates (10 min before the hr) on the area down there.

the whole area looks pretty turbulent. I don't know how much sun I'd be getting this weekend.

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#10846 - 09/30/00 06:21 AM Re: Keith, later fri night...
finsterbaby Offline
I dont know. I just checked. I'm supposed to land 11:30 sat morning. What are the odds of that flight landing on time..... Then I still need to get to AC.

I close my eyes and picture myself sitting in Miami International all day saturday rather than sipping a cocktail on some beach in AC.

I'd like to be positive, but I was stuck for 24 hrs in Chicago only a couple of weeks ago because of a little rain and lightning.

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