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#10859 - 09/30/00 03:38 PM Keith, Sat AM, 9-30
Marty Online   happy
<img align=right height=253 width=253 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/track_9-30_7a.gif">Gotcha, you rotten old storm, ya!

Keith at 7 a.m. Miami time, was still a tropical storm off the coast of
Belize. It does however have circulation and is progressing north to the
Yucatan Channel. West winds here and fairly calm seas. Last night the winds were blowing mildly from the north and it rained partly
heavy in 3 occasions and then drizzled some.


Weather here in San Pedro not too bad so far. Gusty wind about 15mph, surge on the beach, light rain off and on, sky overcast but not threatening. Colder than usual.
I can see the waves slamming into the barrier
reef and sea water rising high in the air.

Belize Cayes should get winds of 40 mph and some wave action and
perhaps erosion on those new beach street replacements. Be interesting
to see what happens there. If the cut in Caye Caulker has not been
closed yet, they could get some dredging land loss going through the cut
with stronger than normal tides. The winds should be just good sailing
breezes for within the reef system, but wave action outside in the sea
would make it uncomfortable.

Ambergris Caye is something like, though not exactly, Direct Hit City
this morning, Tropical-Storm-Keith-wise, but that's GOOD.


First of all, I slept, (hurricanes and such tend to make me sleepy, as
indicated by the earlier report on improved siesta conditions), with
the window open. Nice breeze, little gustwork, no rain. But, as I
figured, about daybreak, Keith gave notice those on the island or
mainland are going to stay put for a while. Flying and boating
conditions went under minimums as the wind from the west picked up.
<br clear=all>

<img align=right height=216 width=216 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/track_9-30_7a2.gif">


Keith's maximum sustained winds are near 70 miles an hour. AND,
forecasts to the contrary notwithstanding, he staggered
west-northwestward to come get some Belikin Beer. Thereby dragging his
little middle too close to shore, which ought to stunt his growth.


He is supposed to turn north-northwestward, the National Weather
Service keeps insisting. Well, now, that's just dandy. He'll ruffle
the feathers on a few papagallos and send a tortilla or two sailing,
and rub out his energy on land for a while. From Belize City to the
Mexican Border at Corozal-Chetumal, a Tropical Storm WARNING, which
means, Duck!, and a Hurricane Watch, which means Watch!, are in
effect. From there northward to Cabo (which means Cape) Catoche, it's
a precautionary Hurricane WARNING.

<br clear=all>
<img align=right height=200 width=200 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/tropsat_9-30_7a.jpg">
He has all the characteristics of a potential high-powered,
mega-whomperage hurricane, but he won't be able to get them going on
or close to land. Officially, his center is 125 miles east of
Corozal-Chetumal on the Mexico-Belize border and 155 miles due south
of Cozumel, Mexico. See, we've got him boxed in! Now, it may seem for
a while as though we caught Keith like Jonah caught that whale, but
we're well ahead in the polls and increasing our lead. He can't move
the reef, the Yucatan, Fido's Courtyard, and the Rendezvous Restaurant
and all with no more punch than he can accumulate close to land.


So it's sunbathing, sightseeing, play-like-you're-in-a-hurricane time
on Ambergris Caye until Keith either does an about face back out to
sea, not predicted, or wears himself out. Actually, walking around is
not the greatest idea, because you don't know who's neglected to
tighten the nails in the roofing or lash down other light flyables,
and might get chopped or bonked if a gust catches something loose. But
Keith's a thrill only for amateurs and novices, Siestaville for old
hurricane hands, as long as he doesn't find a new trick to play. I
think we've got him gaffed, in the net, on the way to the taxidermist.


All of which puts us in a proper frame of mind for, Joyce, Tropical
Storm, Once and Possibly Future Hurricane.


Tropical Storm Joyce is still headed westward, reorganizing slowly,
and acknowledged to have the possibility of hurricaning again. With
maximum sustained winds near 60 miles an hour, centered 365 miles
east-southeast of Barbados and 395 miles east of Tobago, moving due
west at 16 miles an hour, she's inspired a tropical storm watch for
those islands and St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Trinidad, and Grenada and
its dependencies. She's still on a latitude to bash herself on the
northeast coast of Venezuela, but she's predicted to veer slightly
north-northwestward -- may she pay as much attention to the
forecasters as Keith did and similarly ground herself.


All the wiggly pictures -- let them not alarm you much -- at:
http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/CaribbeanLoop/

John Lankford

TROPICAL STORM KEITH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
630 AM AST SAT SEP 30 2000

AT 630 AM AST...1030Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER...INCLUDING
COZUMEL...AND HAS DISCONTINUED ITS HURRICANE WATCH.

ALSO AT 630 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO
THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER.

TROPICAL STORM KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1500
0900Z SAT SEP 30 2000

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL MEXICO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO. HURRICANE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA AND FURTHER
SOUTH TO BELIZE LATER TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 86.3W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 86.3W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 86.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.7N 86.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 20.4N 87.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.



[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-30-2000).]

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#10860 - 09/30/00 03:46 PM Re: Keith, Sat AM, 9-30
Anonymous
Hey I am supposed to arrive on AC tomorrow afternoon. Should I cancel, is the diving going to be ruined for a few days? Is there going to be debris everywhere in San Pedro. Is my timing all wrong. This is my 14th wedding aniversary, and my wife is pressing for a go no go decision.
Help!

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#10861 - 09/30/00 03:56 PM Re: Keith, Sat AM, 9-30
Belizeans.com Offline
John,

Watch out for those zinc roofs when the wind is really blowing. They can slice and dice better than Ginsu knives!
_________________________
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Darren,
darren@belizeans.com
Visit the site about Belizeans in Belize and Abroad!
www.Belizeans.com

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#10862 - 09/30/00 04:09 PM Re: Keith, Sat AM, 9-30
Marty Online   happy
No debris, this thing will slide north, hopefully soon....

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#10863 - 09/30/00 04:23 PM Re: Keith, Sat AM, 9-30
Marty Online   happy
Weather in Placencia is cloudy with light/moderate wind from the west.
Intermittent rain, nothing extraordinary.

BELIZE WEATHER BUREAU
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE


GENERAL WEATHER FORECAST
--------------------------------------------------------
DATE: SAT 30 SEP 2000
TIME: 8;30AM
--------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL SITUATION: TROPICAL KEITH CENTERED ABOUT 105 MILES ENE
OF SAN PEDRO,DRIFTING WNW.
--------------------------------------------------------
24HR FORECAST: CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH OUTBREAKS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS,ESPECIALLY OVER THE SEA
AND NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS.
--------------------------------------------------------
WINDS: N-NW 25-45KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
--------------------------------------------------------
SEAS: VERY ROUGH
*SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT*
--------------------------------------------------------
OUTLOOK: SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
--------------------------------------------------------
TEMPERATURES:
HIGHS(TODAY) COASTAL 29C/84F INLAND 29C/84F
LOWS(TONIGHT) COASTAL 24C/75F INLAND 18C/64F
--------------------------------------------------------
TIDES:
HIGH- 11:48AM LOW- 5:41PM
HIGH- 11:29PM LOW- 6:32AM(SUN)
--------------------------------------------------------
SUNRISE- MOONSET- 8:07PM
SUNSET- 5:43PM MOONRISE-


[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-30-2000).]

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