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KEITH HAS BEEN DESIGNATED A HURRICANE BY THE US NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.


His center continues to meander near the Yucatan Coast, located 118
miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico, still officially expected to
turn north-northwestward.


Yeah, right. By comparison with the last fix, he's "meandered" back
southward a tad. Maximum sustained winds 80 miles an hour, expected
to strengthen. Since its 'meandering', we could have no damage or bad
damage, no diving or good diving in a couple of days.


Tropical Storm WARNINGS and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
Belize City to Corozal on Belize's north border. Hurricane WARNINGS
are in effect from Chetumal, directly across the border from Corozal,
to Cabo Catoche, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect from there
northward to Progresso
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At 9:00 AM Central Standard Time Saturday Sept. 30, intermittent
blowing rain with gusts has begun on Ambergris Caye. The sea on the
east, or main beach, is flat calm due to sheltering by the island from
winds out of the east. Our customary storm show on the reef, as waves
smack it and go skyward, is not happening. On the west of the island,
in the Bay of Chetumal and San Pedro Lagoon, there is noticeable chop
and small wave action onshore. Some mild local tidal flooding may
possibly occur in the low-lying San Pedrito, San Pablo, and San Juan
colonias adjacent to San Pedro Town on the western side.


Local sustained winds are above 20 miles an hour from the west, with
gusts up to near 40.


An advisory obtained by Tropic Air from government this morning
predicted Keith's highest impact on Belize will be maximum sustained
winds of 50 miles an hour with higher gusts. This will necessitate
evacuating aircraft to avoid their being damaged on the ground,
probably around noontime, possibly sooner. Boats are also at some
risk, and of course, as are tree limbs and any light items.

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Islanders are not crowding the available seats on the last flights out
prior to taking the aircraft to safety. People are essentially
battening down hatches, but not alarmed.


I think Keith realized we've got him boxed in, and is throwing a fit
about it.

http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/CaribbeanLoop/


John Lankford


HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000

...KEITH BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

A HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING COULD BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNING LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM...1500 UTC THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO
PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 118
MILES...190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

KEITH HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT LATER TODAY.


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KEITH IS STRENGTHENING AND THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEFORE LANDFALL. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 86.6 W. MOVEMENT
MEANDERING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 984 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA



[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-30-2000).]