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#10907 - 09/30/00 11:36 PM Come on El Norde
Marty Offline
A Mitch "rerun" is now looking Belize straight in the face. The only thing
we got to pray for -- exactly as the last time -- is that old El Norde does
the right thing.


Last time -- El Norde strengthened during the course of Mitch stopping it
before it reached so far North as to hit Belize. In fact -- El Norde
stopped Mitch and then pushed it to the South West and the rest is history.


Now we are looking at Keith -- Son of Mitch -- building up in the exact
same manner.


These are the new generation of "pocket" hurricanes. That is they are not
born and raised far across the Eastern Atlantic -- off the coasts of Africa
-- as indeed is Joyce -- but localized hurricane formation in this
Caribbean pocket sea.


Probably one of the "changes" in global weather habits we can attribute to
Global Warming. You know -- that which everyone most certainly states is
not happening -- and even if is happening has nothing to do with all the
fossil fuel combustion by modern nations.


This folks looks like it is going to become a new yearly event for us here.


Back to El Norde. Last time we prayed for a strong El Norde to push Mitch
"back" -- and our prayers were answered -- and thousands upon thousands of
good people died South of us.


Now we must pray for a weakening El Norde -- let that bubble of cold air
from the North "shrink" so that the Yucatec Hurricane Channel becomes a
hurricane highway again.


Then Thousands of people North of us die.


Of course -- the "panic" button has been pressed here on Main Land Belize.
And evacuations to hurricane shelters has started.


Due to the surprisingly fast pace of development of Keith -- we are all ill
prepared.


I here that evacuation from San Pedro and Cay Caulker is now no longer
possible. But find that hard to believe. I am advising my wife's son's
family living in San Pedro to abandon all and evacuate now. Figure they can
make it to Salt Creek if they leave no later than 5:00 PM.


Just talked to him again -- they are looking for a skiff.

Peter Singfield

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#10908 - 09/30/00 11:44 PM Re: Come on El Norde
Sandshaker Offline
Wouldn't advise evacuation now....radio just announced to abandon evacuation efforts.

It's a long way to Belize City in this rain and rough waters.

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#10909 - 10/01/00 12:01 AM Re: Come on El Norde
Belize Mama Offline
Please don't advise anyone to try to evacuate now. this is why people get killed. Too rough out there already. Better to lash things down and tough it out. I live in a hurricane prone area myself and know what it can be like. Safer on the island than in a boat on open water......much.

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#10910 - 10/01/00 12:26 AM Re: Come on El Norde
Marty Offline
El Norde is a bubble of cold air that stretches down over the North
American continent spilling off the South Eastern US into the gulf of Mexico.


It is this "bubble" that is refusing Keith entrance. According to the
official forecasts -- Keith should start moving North West by tomorrow.


But tonight -- the sun no longer shines and the coldness gets colder. The
bubble grows -- maybe pushing Keith South West.


Further -- I just heard on love FM that the water temperature out there
under Keith is still more than hot enough to make this hurricane grow a few
more orders.


The force of a hurricane is directly proportional to the delta T -- of it's
two thermodynamic opposites. Delta T is the difference between high and low
temperatures in a heat reaction -- or flow. The greater this difference the
more power that can flow.


Our ocean is "hot". The sun sets -- the upper atmosphere gets much colder
very quickly. The difference in temperature between the cold and hot side
increases -- Delta T goes up. This is like putting the pedal to the metal!


The forecast is for Keith to sit right where it is for the next 12 hours.
If true -- we may avoid this Southern Movement -- and live another day.


We have an interesting night ahead of us here in Belize!

Peter Singfield

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-30-2000).]

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