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#10924 - 10/01/00 02:14 AM San Pedro, evening....
Marty Online   happy
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<img align=right width=285 height=149 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9-30-5p.gif">
At 6:00 PM Central Standard Belize Righteous Chronometer Temporal
Reckoning, relatively moderate if blustery weather continued on
Ambergris Caye, the human habitation apparently closest to Hurricane
Keith, unless it's Caye Caulker. Except during rainsqualls, people
continued to buy extras and stockups at the open stores, ride bicycles
and walk barefoot or shod, or operate golf carts or motor vehicles or
shod on the streets at the usual pace. Light to moderate plywood
battening of windows was audible during the afternoon. Utilities
continued to operate without interruption.


For those curious about Tropical Storm Joyce, she was barely a
tropical storm and not organized, with maximum sustained winds of
about 40 miles an hour, 225 miles east of Trinidad, moving westward at
16 miles an hour and expected to cross the Windward Islands tomorrow
(Sunday) morning.


Keith has continued meteorologically incorrect motion slightly north
of westward at, during the past three hours, about five miles an hour,
and is now 90 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico and Corozal, Belize. The
center should be on a latitude slightly northward of San Pedro Town,
Ambergris Caye, probably about 75 miles distant from us. Maximum
sustained winds have increased slightly to 105 miles an hour, and is
still expected by those who expect things of balky hurricanes to head
north-northwest some day. Central pressure had reduced from 28.64
inches of mercury to 28.53 inches at last reading.


Ambergris Caye is in a fairly good situation with respect to Keith,
who is getting more respect, albeit grudging, all the time. By
placing his center slightly north or even due east of us, he's made it
necessary for the winds we receive to cross a considerable amount of
land first, which slows them down and breaks them up a bit. The
northern portion of the Caye is broader, most habitation being on the
eastern shore and protected by a wider breadth of forested island, and
the southern portion, of course, is just that much farther from the
potential heaviest winds. Better news is that the position change of
the past three hours may indicate the beginning of a northwestward or
north-northwestward, meteorologicaly correct movement. Or, he could
waver again.


Conditions favor further strengthening, and the question of the moment
is how much more Keith can manage to intensify this close to land, and
how close to land he will come, how soon, and, for those of us near
his center, precisely where. As before, if he will come on ashore and
start weakening, we can take the hit without very much damage. South
of his center, wind forces will be counteracting tidal surge and wave
action. But if he dawdles offshore and strengthens, things become more
problematical. He is still far from a major hurricane, only a Category
2, but we'd like him to enter or leave before he becomes much
stronger. At this time, it appears he may be doing the former.

http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/CaribbeanLoop/

John Lankford

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-30-2000).]

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#10925 - 10/01/00 02:20 AM Re: San Pedro, evening....
Marty Online   happy
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<img align=right width=218 height=252 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9A-keith-csm.gif">
It seems like its going west, See the trail where the last centers were located...

John:
I think the center is going through Fido's.

I can't figure the National Weather Service out. John Greif says
they're just using prior statistics, saying, "a hurricane here must go
there". They're apparently giving no weight to the high pressure air
I think has this thing bottled up among us.


But the last position given is due east rather than east southeast of
Chetumal, leading me to hope a little northing creep has begun. The
more of that, the less my rafters have to rattle. The sustained
direction of our wind encourages me -- basically from the west. That
means we have to be a little south of the center.


Man, if this thing gets in the Gulf of Mexico without slowing down too
much, out in all that open water, look out Minnesota!


Well, hell. It is where it is and it's dark. Wait and see.

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#10926 - 10/01/00 03:03 AM Re: San Pedro, evening....
TexasCat Offline
send it our way in texas, maybe that will help our drought!!we're praying for keith to hit here. just bring rain not to destroy.

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#10927 - 10/01/00 03:06 AM Re: San Pedro, evening....
Kit Offline
John - via Marty - good show of the non - eventuality of landfall of this storm. It's gonna hit somewhere and hope it does little harm, Kit\

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#10928 - 10/01/00 03:37 AM Re: San Pedro, evening....
Belize Mama Offline
Okay, TexasCat...better watch what you wish for!!! You DON"T want this hurricane to come there. It will intensify in the Gulf (more than likely) and will do damage not just give you some needed rain. Better hope it plays out instead...which is unlikely.

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#10929 - 10/01/00 03:51 AM Re: San Pedro, evening....
TexasCat Offline
i just want some rain, my brother lives in corpus christi so i don't want damage..i know how a hurricane can pick up speed in the gulf. but it would be a blessing if it brought rain..i hate to see the storm to develope where it is, that usually means trouble for anyone in it's path. but i hear ya belize mama.

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