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#10940 - 10/01/00 03:39 AM 9-30, 8:30pm Reports
Marty Online   happy
<img align=right width=245 height=180 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9-30-7ptracksm.gif">HURRICANE KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT SEP 30 2000

...KEITH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN
AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...150
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.
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<img align=right width=278 height=257 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/454.gif">
KEITH HAS BEEN DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...169 KM/HR
... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE LAST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
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<img align=right width=227 height=196 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9-307p_satsm.jpg">
BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND ALSO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...18.0 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT...A
SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.
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<img align=right width=259 height=161 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9-307p3sm.jpg">
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
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<font size=3 face="courier, courier new">
Code:
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN
 ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
   1  16.10  -82.90 09/28/21Z   25  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   2  16.20  -83.20 09/29/03Z   25  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   3  16.20  -83.20 09/29/09Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   4  17.20  -84.30 09/29/15Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 +12  17.50  -84.50 09/30/00Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
 +24  18.00  -84.70 09/30/12Z   40     - TROPICAL STORM
 +36  18.50  -85.00 10/01/00Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
 +48  19.50  -85.00 10/01/12Z   50     - TROPICAL STORM
 +72  20.50  -85.00 09/02/12Z   65     - HURRICANE-1
</font>
HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 270/02. THE GUIDANCE IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM SIX HOURS
AGO WITH THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWING KEITH IN A COL REGION BETWEEN
ANTICYLONES TO THE WEST AND EAST AND A WEAK TROUGH JUST NORTH AT 500
MB. THE GFDL AND AVIATION MODEL MOVE KEITH MOSTLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE UKMET IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO
MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS BELIZE AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 72
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY MOVING KEITH ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN...EXCEPT THAT THE
HEADING IS A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT HEADING
THAT KEITH TAKES...HURRICANE WINDS AND STORM SURGE SHOULD SHORTLY
AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. AND IF THE WESTWARD
DRIFT CONTINUES FOR MUCH LONGER...NORTHERN BELIZE COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE HURRICANE WINDS.

THE LAST RECON FIX AT 21Z GAVE 966 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE MAX
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB WAS 101 KNOTS. THIS IS A DROP OF 11 MB
IN 3 HOURS. A DROPSONDE SHOWED WINDS TO 120 KNOTS NEAR 900 MB
DECREASING TO 87 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. SINCE THEN SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO THE 100 TO 115 KNOT RANGE.
BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS FOR
THE 03Z ADVISORY AND FORECAST TO 110 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS. THE
STRENGHTENING IS MOST IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THAT SOME 25 PERCENT OF
THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER LAND. SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 24 TO 48
HOURS...SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
STRENGTHENING AGAIN AT 72 HOURS WHEN THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE
WELL AWAY FROM LAND IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
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<font size=3 face="courier, courier new">
Code:
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL     01/0300Z 18.1N  87.1W   100 KTS
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.3N  87.4W   110 KTS
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N  87.5W    90 KTS...NEAR LAND
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N  87.6W    80 KTS...INLAND
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N  87.7W    70 KTS...INLAND
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 24.0N  88.0W    85 KTS...INLAND
   
 
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[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-30-2000).]

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#10941 - 10/01/00 03:58 AM Re: 9-30, 8:30pm Reports
Belize Mama Offline
Just heard the winds are up to 115mph. Let's all say an extra prayer for all of AC.

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#10942 - 10/01/00 04:15 AM Re: 9-30, 8:30pm Reports
Marty Online   happy
I just spoke to Bob Jones, of Eva's Restaurant in San Ignacio, via Instant
Message.
Bob asked me to pass this along...The U.S. Embassy just called him. They
have a flight leaving tomorrow. Per Bob the phone number to contact is
02-35423.


Best wishes go to all who are weathering this storm.


Cindy Cruz

HURRICANE KEITH PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT SEP 30 2000

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2000
<font size=3 face="courier, courier new">
Code:
 LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
  
 19.0N  87.5W      83  X  X  X 83   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  2  2
 20.0N  87.6W      29  1  1  X 31   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  2  2
 21.0N  87.7W      14  8  2  1 25   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  3  3
 MWCG 193N 814W     X  1  3  3  7   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  3  3
 MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  X  2  2   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  3  3
 MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  2  5  7   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  3  3
 MUSN 216N 826W     X  3  6  4 13   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  3  3
 MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  4  7 11   BURAS LA           X  X  X  5  5
 MUAN 219N 850W     2 10  5  2 19   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  4  4
 MMCZ 205N 869W    25  2  1  X 28   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  3  3
 MZBZ 175N 883W    32  X  X  X 32   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  2  2
 MGPB 157N 886W     1  X  X  1  2   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  3  3
 MHNJ 165N 859W     5  1  X  1  7   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  3  3
 MMFR 185N 926W     X  X  1  2  3   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  X  2  2
 MMMD 210N 897W     1 11  4  2 18   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  X  2  2
 MARATHON FL        X  X  X  6  6   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  X  2  2
 MIAMI FL           X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  4  4
 W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  5  5
 FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  7  7
 COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  7  7
 KEY WEST FL        X  X  1  6  7   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  5  5
 MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  5  5   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  4  4
 FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  4  4   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X  3  3
 VENICE FL          X  X  X  4  4   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  X  4  4
 TAMPA FL           X  X  X  3  3
  
 COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
 A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM SUN
 FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
 B FROM  7PM SUN TO  7AM MON
 C FROM  7AM MON TO  7PM MON
 D FROM  7PM MON TO  7PM TUE
 E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM TUE
 X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
  
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FORECASTER LAWRENCE


[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 09-30-2000).]

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