from downtown...
10am
=====
Just got back from shopping and a quick cruise around town.


Town is pretty dead. Lots of folks have gotten off the island and boats
and the planes are still operating.


There is mild wind and some caps on the lagoon side more than the barrier
reef right now. There has been slight drizzling only.

We have everything ready and just getting
our preparations finalized. Thunderbolt Travel Services moved 500 plus passengers off the island yesterday only.


It is sad to see San Pedro so lonely at times like these but it is better
that way.

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 08-20-2001).]

The travel services by boat have now stopped and the only way out now is the
planes, from now till the weather gets worse.

10:40

water might be a couple of feet higher than normal...3' rollers coming in
occasionally.


Wind seems to me to be coming more NNW, suggesting that we're in the SW
quadrant.

from downtown, noon:

Drizzling stopped and slightly over cast. The waves outside the reef look
ferocious but inside looks just like any other regular calm day. No storm
surge yet and all piers still over water. Wind is mild.

report from Wendy in Caye Caulker:

Funny you should give the tidal forecast, John, as I was just getting ready to post on the tidal happenings here on CC.

Since I last posted this a.m., the tide has gone up probably a foot more or so. The "battering" waves have started. The sea level is now to the top of bridges (at least the ones I can see), and the waves are now in full swing eroding the beach in front of
me. In fact, when the waves are coming in, the now lap about 5 feet from the front door of the house I am in. And this is just the beginning. I fully expect bridges to start collapsing at any moment now.

In terms of wind damage, I don't expect too many fallen trees or even ripped houses, but the destructive eroding effects of the wave action (akin to Hurricane Mitch a few years ago), is now underway.

I am really sorry to see this happening as I dearly love our new beach. It is sad to watch it now being washed away in front of my eyes.

Cheers,
Wendy

wind is really picking up now, I'd say this is it...

its definently coming inland now, after a bit of a stall...

the trough around merida is easing, and it had been blocking the exit path. theres even a lil space in the chute between cancun and cuba that should ease its passage into the gulf


heavy winds
serious grey skies
no rain
high waves on reef
surge maybe 2 feet
feels like the pressure is dropping
water line a couple of feet below Joe Miller's pier


21 GMT 08/20/01 18.1N 87.3W 65 1005 Tropical Storm


Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 21
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 20, 2001


high-resolution visible satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the tropical cyclone has become slightly better organized. On satellite...the system has a comma-shaped cloud pattern and the center is near the edge of the dense overcast. The aircraft data show that the southern portion of the circulation...which had been practically non-existent...has become distinct. Over the northeast quadrant...the strongest winds are now closer to the center. A gps dropsonde measured surface winds of 50 knots in the strong convection to the northeast of the center. Water vapor loops suggest that the shear is decreasing over Chantal...and this is confirmed by shear tendency analyses by the University of Wisconsin cimss as shown on their web site. However...there is very little time for Chantal to avail itself of more favorable conditions before making landfall over Yucatan. However...assuming that the cyclone emerges over the bay of campeche...there will be another Opportunity for strengthening.

The track forecast and reasoning are basically the same as before. The NCEP Global Model builds a 500 mb anticylone over the northern Gulf later in the forecast period. This should preclude a significant northward movement. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest dynamical guidance...and similar to the previous NHC forecast.


[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 08-20-2001).]