you don't need a reservation on Tropic, you can just walk up and get
on a flight. Thunderbolt just announced they're running a boat to Corozal this
afternoon at 4 PM. I think people are getting off much sooner this time. Some
people left yesterday. Mata Chica seems to be getting them out, although
there are several sunning on the beach as we boarded up.
Dockside and Blue Tang were boarding up yesterday.
I don't think anyone here is in panic mode, just going
about getting ready. We never had that chance with Keith, it was only supposed
to be a small storm, so lots of us took it lightly. I don't think you'll see
much of that this time. People have been planning for days, preparing for the
worst but hoping for the best.


Weather is beautiful here, of course. Perfect dive conditions. Tides are normal,
wind and sea state is light, mostly sunny. Wind feels like light trades right
now, nothing unusual yet.

the last couple reporting periods are the first time it quit northing. it actually dipped down a tiny bit the last 2 periods. just went west and a tiny bit south.

09 GMT 08/18/01 14.8N 71.3W 60 1003 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/18/01 15.0N 73.9W 60 1006 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/18/01 15.6N 76.2W 60 1003 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/19/01 15.7N 78.2W 60 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/19/01 15.5N 78.6W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/19/01 15.5N 80.3W 70 1004 Tropical Storm

Wind started picking up about 6 PM local. Some whitecaps inside the reef.
Probably going to be like this off and on until we get whatever prevailing
conditions hit us. Everyone is expecting conditions to deterioate until Chantal
passes.


Just a guess of windspeed at present is 20-25 mph. Again, this will vary up and
down for the next 24 hrs, when we expect Chantal to make landfall.

From Joe Miller just now...
=====
Tonite, I think we'll get the squalls you see in front of the storm. I went out at
7:30 local and it was quiet as a church mouse, you could count every star in
the sky...but by daylight, we could be in the stew. Chance of winds...my bet
is increasing during the night until we get steady 40-50 mph by noon
tomorrow. I'm prepared to be wrong, but also think we're prepared.

starting to see
lightning and hear thunder coming this way from the NE. I think that's the
good-sized blossom in front of the real McCoy. We'll be wet by midnight local
fer sure.

Just talked with our friends there on the island, every family is getting ready... All the houses are being boarded up, and boats taken into the mangrove... They are experiencing a little high wind and gust, and just now are receiving rain.... We'll talk with them in the AM.... Let's all hope it goes north, which I think it will.. Rick

I hope all works out ok for you all down there ! We're all praying for you guys in Texas. I know all eyes and prayers are on you guys!!

just spoke to the island, here's what Joe Miller said:
==================

getting strong squalls, hard blowing rain, probably 30 mph w/ 45-50
gusts...steady chop in the sea, but tides are just slightly over
normal..wind is from north, so I figure she's at a right angle to us about
now...

Maya Island announced they will stop flights off the island at 1 PM local

getting VERY hard to get on internet right now...probably everybody with a
computer is getting their news and sat photos from the net...that's what
we'll do (when we can get a connection) as long as we have electricity and
phone...

From Sundiver:
=======
the weather is up and down
We have had some good rain storms this morning. There are boats on the water
still. the wave action on the reef has picked up in the last hour but the
surf inside the reef is pretty calm. wind rain and the ocean are blowing
south.

the wind has suddenly stopped to nothing. just briefly probably.

from sundiver:
still pretty calm but we are getting some pretty good rollers every 5
minutes. Still moving south.
I have felt no pressure like we did with Keith when we all had headaches but
nothing yet just hot and humid.

The water has come up and we are get rollers ever few minutes but nothing
like the Friday before Keith
looking at it I think we have 2 feet more to come before the piers are under


[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 08-20-2001).]

from downtown...
10am
=====
Just got back from shopping and a quick cruise around town.


Town is pretty dead. Lots of folks have gotten off the island and boats
and the planes are still operating.


There is mild wind and some caps on the lagoon side more than the barrier
reef right now. There has been slight drizzling only.

We have everything ready and just getting
our preparations finalized. Thunderbolt Travel Services moved 500 plus passengers off the island yesterday only.


It is sad to see San Pedro so lonely at times like these but it is better
that way.

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 08-20-2001).]

The travel services by boat have now stopped and the only way out now is the
planes, from now till the weather gets worse.

10:40

water might be a couple of feet higher than normal...3' rollers coming in
occasionally.


Wind seems to me to be coming more NNW, suggesting that we're in the SW
quadrant.

from downtown, noon:

Drizzling stopped and slightly over cast. The waves outside the reef look
ferocious but inside looks just like any other regular calm day. No storm
surge yet and all piers still over water. Wind is mild.

report from Wendy in Caye Caulker:

Funny you should give the tidal forecast, John, as I was just getting ready to post on the tidal happenings here on CC.

Since I last posted this a.m., the tide has gone up probably a foot more or so. The "battering" waves have started. The sea level is now to the top of bridges (at least the ones I can see), and the waves are now in full swing eroding the beach in front of
me. In fact, when the waves are coming in, the now lap about 5 feet from the front door of the house I am in. And this is just the beginning. I fully expect bridges to start collapsing at any moment now.

In terms of wind damage, I don't expect too many fallen trees or even ripped houses, but the destructive eroding effects of the wave action (akin to Hurricane Mitch a few years ago), is now underway.

I am really sorry to see this happening as I dearly love our new beach. It is sad to watch it now being washed away in front of my eyes.

Cheers,
Wendy

wind is really picking up now, I'd say this is it...

its definently coming inland now, after a bit of a stall...

the trough around merida is easing, and it had been blocking the exit path. theres even a lil space in the chute between cancun and cuba that should ease its passage into the gulf


heavy winds
serious grey skies
no rain
high waves on reef
surge maybe 2 feet
feels like the pressure is dropping
water line a couple of feet below Joe Miller's pier


21 GMT 08/20/01 18.1N 87.3W 65 1005 Tropical Storm


Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 21
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 20, 2001


high-resolution visible satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the tropical cyclone has become slightly better organized. On satellite...the system has a comma-shaped cloud pattern and the center is near the edge of the dense overcast. The aircraft data show that the southern portion of the circulation...which had been practically non-existent...has become distinct. Over the northeast quadrant...the strongest winds are now closer to the center. A gps dropsonde measured surface winds of 50 knots in the strong convection to the northeast of the center. Water vapor loops suggest that the shear is decreasing over Chantal...and this is confirmed by shear tendency analyses by the University of Wisconsin cimss as shown on their web site. However...there is very little time for Chantal to avail itself of more favorable conditions before making landfall over Yucatan. However...assuming that the cyclone emerges over the bay of campeche...there will be another Opportunity for strengthening.

The track forecast and reasoning are basically the same as before. The NCEP Global Model builds a 500 mb anticylone over the northern Gulf later in the forecast period. This should preclude a significant northward movement. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest dynamical guidance...and similar to the previous NHC forecast.


[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 08-20-2001).]