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#11135 - 08/21/01 02:08 PM lankford, 7am tues
Marty Offline
A northern fairy tale begins, "Once upon a time."


A southern fairy tale begins, "Ya'll ain't gon' BELIEVE this s---!"


YAGBTS: What caused and is calling the drownpour on north Ambergris
Caye and thereabouts is the formation of another eye right over you
last night.


Looking back, remember we've been talking about rival centers of
circulation fighting it out in weak Chantal. She's been full of energy
and not able to organize, so the lead has been passing back and forth,
making the Hurricane Center's designation of center and position
arbitrary and based on continuity and a desire for coherence as much
as meteorology.


Well, when the winning center got ashore last night, it weakened a
little bit and the trailing central dynamic, the one I thought for a
while was going to win out yesterday, formed up. That's the one only
35 miles from Chetumal now. The Hurricane Center conceded and
relocated the storm back east around 5 this morning. Marty just
pointed out the "discussion" advisory. The "discussion" advisories
have consisted mainly of hand-wringing. The public advisories being
passed along have been deciisons about best-call-overall.


Credit Marty. He's been the second-eye formation advocate for the past
12 hours, and I've been the "Naw, surely not!" skeptic, though forced
to acknowledge that dynamic in the southeast that formed up last
night.


Now, stand by to weep. Marty's keen antennae raise the possibility
that in all that water coming in behind Chantal, she can do this again
and again and again for a while.


I'll try to stay skeptical.


This has not been a good "probability" storm. It's been more of a "If
it might, it does storm."


John Lankford

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#11136 - 08/21/01 02:14 PM Re: lankford, 7am tues
Marty Offline
YAGBTS again:


Tail of Chantal is forming another center of circulation offshore, and
it's bossing the others already, curling their geometry toward it.


Hit medium zoom and animate on
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8conusir.html

John

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#11137 - 08/21/01 02:17 PM Re: lankford, 7am tues
ojackieo Offline
It looks as though Belize is totally surrounded or am I looking wrong. Did San Pedro get hit or is that still up in the air.

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#11138 - 08/21/01 02:18 PM Re: lankford, 7am tues
sdungan Offline
Any sense of the direction and speed of the "Second Center" and what effect it might have on the Bay of Chetumal? It looks possitioned to drift to the north of Chetumal.

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#11139 - 08/21/01 03:23 PM Re: lankford, 7am tues
Marty Offline
i agree. looks a bit to the north. the thing most definently is ever so slightly northing, and ever so slightly westing, but its also getting more 'organized' and tightening up a bit.

speed is slow, but there is motion with the overall mass. the hot center seems to be quite large and not moving as much. and is definently centered north of san pedro, with the 'center' area extending from san pedro area in the south to cozumel in the north

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#11140 - 08/21/01 03:56 PM Re: lankford, 7am tues
Marty Offline
latest goes (14:31 UTC) is first to show weakening in today's 'center'. lets hope it keeps up

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 08-21-2001).]

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