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#11193 - 08/21/01 08:29 PM Qualifications, please????
Turnbun Offline
Hey, everyone.
This board is wonderful and I appreciate all the information you are giving us. As I am scheduled to leave for AC next Wednesday with many family and friends, I'm very concerned and am watching this board very closely (and saying prayers for everyone in the path of the storm).
I have one concern, and that is this:
What are the people who are making weather predications on this board's qualifications/resume for making these types of predictions? Are you just looking at GOES and other maps/websites and making a guess, or are you a meteorologist experienced in hurricane tracking/predicting. I think a lot of the "doomsday" posts are freaking some of us out, and then we get these other posts that say, "things are pretty good on AC, no major damage, not too much wind right now, rain intermitent." Things seem a little inconsistent (I'm not complaining, just confused!!!).
I would just like to know how much I should trust some of the prediction posts (I'm aware that NO weather forecast can totally be trusted, especially when it is about tropical weather). If you could tell me where you are getting your information and how you are drawing your conclusions, that would be very helpful!
No other web site seems to give much detail on how this will affect Belize; they all concentrate on Mexico and the US.
Thanks for keeping us all informed!!

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#11194 - 08/21/01 08:59 PM Re: Qualifications, please????
mossback Offline
Turnbun,

Your concerns are valid and it's easy to see the cause of your confusion. If you don't come from an area that is frequented by hurricanes, then you might want to put lots of faith in the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center and their forecast models. These models are based on computerized projections mixed with current conditions and satellite photos. Tracking hurricanes is like predicting the path of a knuckleball. Even the pitcher can't say for sure where it will land. When Bob Uecker was hired by the Atlanta Braves to catch Phil Neikro, a knuckleballer by trade, he was asked the best way to catch a knuckball. He replied "you wait til it stops rolling, then pick it up".

There are those in Belize who think that their interests are best served by telling the world that all is rosy here and we never have any storm damage. The opposite pole would keep an eye on every thunderstorm and tell you that it might ruin your vacation. You're probably looking for something in between.

After Hurricane Mitch in 1998 and Hurricane Keith in 2000 both missed the forecasts by a significant margin, lots of people in Belize have taken to using the projections as a model around which other theories can be built. One doesn't need impeccable credentials to question a computer model. Lots of what you see on this board is guesswork, just like the predictions by the National Hurricane Center.


Some of the comments are made by people who were raised on the Gulf Coast of the United States and have seen their share of these storms. After a while, one learns of the basic patterns associated with them. This experience usually serves as a reminder that even the experts don't know for sure where the "knuckleball" will go until it hits somewhere.

Planning your vacation to the Caribbean can be a risky proposition. Expecting someone to tell you exactly what the weather will be like is asking a lot.

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#11195 - 08/21/01 09:04 PM Re: Qualifications, please????
Turnbun Offline
Thanks for the info. I haven't worried at all about the weather (didn't even think about it until the other day when I heard about Chantal) and figured whatever happens happens, but I've been so confused with all the conflicting reports on this board and on other weather sites. We knew when we planned our wedding for September in Belize we were taking a risk. We just figured it would be an adventure whatever happens!
Again, I do appreciate all the posts and speculation, I just didn't know how much stock to put in the posts. I'll just follow along and trust things will work out!
Thanks!

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#11196 - 08/22/01 12:31 AM Re: Qualifications, please????
Marty Offline
2 billion hours looking at GOES satellite shots, and talking during the storms over the years constantly with a few fellows, like joe miller, John Lankford, Peter Singfield, Ray auxillou, Julian Rivero, Jorge Varela, and others who have seen a few of these come round....

we got the emails swimming to keep up with our fingers. we just throw data and charts around electronically in a blizzard of information.

as a result, we occasionally befuddle ourselves, but we try to fight on through the fog.

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#11197 - 08/22/01 01:29 AM Re: Qualifications, please????
JmHanna Offline
I live in Tres Cocos--I dont need qualifications. I look out the window.
We don't ask for qualifications from tourists!!
_________________________
Jim

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#11198 - 08/22/01 03:15 PM Re: Qualifications, please????
AC Beach Bum Offline
Hello lovely bride,

I feel your anxiety! Hang in, you are in my thoughts! Can't wait to see your pictures!!

My hopes and prayers have been with all of the residents of Belize and it's Cayes as well.

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#11199 - 08/22/01 06:43 PM Re: Qualifications, please????
Turnbun Offline
Sorry if you thought I was being rude asking that. I was just very confused and had no idea where everyone making predections was coming from - there were conflicting reports. I didn't mean to offend. I just wanted to know how everyone knew what they knew.
I'm glad all is well on AC and everyone seemed to have braved the storm well.

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#11200 - 08/22/01 07:00 PM Re: Qualifications, please????
Christopher Offline
No problem...we just call em as we THINK we see em.
Still seem s like the weather people are in the dark calling this thing going into the gulf right now.
oh well...
_________________________
chris considine

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#11201 - 08/22/01 07:08 PM Re: Qualifications, please????
Christopher Offline
J Lankford is the man to listen to...a lot of experience reading these maps...I'm just a Caulker worrier
_________________________
chris considine

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#11202 - 08/23/01 04:44 AM Re: Qualifications, please????
Marty Offline
hell no offense whatsoever. it was a good time to say that stuff. its important for folks to know!

yeah, lankford is the shit. he knows his blows...

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