"CHANTAL SHOULD REMAIN A DEPRESSION WHILE OVER YUCATAN AS THE
CIRCULATION IS NOW TOO WELL DEFINED FOR THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE TIME IT WILL BE OVER LAND. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN SHOWING
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW DURING THE DAY...SO CONDITIONS APPEAR AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVERTHE
All caps just the way it copied, not for drama.
This is impressive. It means the central low will continue to generate
wealther for a while now. That's what's dragged up that cloudmess off
the coast and keeps it billowing, and generated interior vortices now
On average what you have there is no different from a fairly large
nontropical system, or a tropical "wave". There's commotion inside,
but no definitive circulation.
It COULD edge itself over Ambergris Caye and rain all over you. Or
maybe it won't.
It COULD CONCEIVABLY find a way to start circulating and go into
business for itself. I am still all alone maintaining Mitch ran off
in the Pacific Ocean in '99 and it was a consequential swirl that went
across the Gulf and smacked Florida. (It just got from the Guatemalan
Pacific Coast to the north Yucatan coast launch point too damned fast
to have been the same swirl. Whap! Whap! Yowsa, I'll go back to bein'
quiet about that)
But while it's trying that, there will remain the attempt of Chantal's
main center of circulation to drag it over land and make it rain
I think a lot of the cloudmess coming up from the south will settle
down in a few hours. Most of it's just land-generated thunderstorms,
summer afternoon stuff. Over land is where the big white puffs, the
thunderheads, are popping up now.