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#11256 - 10/08/01 01:07 AM John Lankford, 6pm Sun
Marty Offline
HURRICANE IRIS NOW PREDICTED ASHORE ON BELIZE MAINLAND IN ABOUT 35
HOURS.


THIS SHORTENS EVACUATION TIME.


BE GONE.


Hurricane Iris is not going west/northwest as it was earlier predicted
she would be when she cleared Jamaica. She is headed due west,
straight for the middle of Belize, and the National Hurricane Center
expects her to keep the same vector for the next 24 hours.


As the threat drifts southward, Honduras has a tropical storm WARNING
and a hurricane WATCH for that nation's north coast. But hurricane
WATCHES remain in effect from Belize City northward to Cabo Catoche,
the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and they may be upgraded
to hurricane WARNINGS tonight.


Iris is about 275 miles southeast of Grand Cayman, headed due west at
18 miles an hour. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85 miles an hour,
with hurricane force winds extending outward 25 miles from the center,
and tropical storm force winds out to 115 miles. Minimum central
pressure as measured by hand by Flyin' Fools is 991 millibars. That is
up 2 millibars from the 989 estimated from satellite indications in
the prior advisory.


Intellicast has accordingly moved their projected track southward a
bit. ON THE NEW TRACK IRIS WOULD CROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF AMBERGRIS
CAYE, OR GO BETWEEN AMBERGRIS CAYE AND CAYE CAULKER. http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/HurTrack1/


I think Intellicast needs to press down on that line just a little bit
more, and be prepared to do it again a time or two. Placencia, heads
very up. People from Belize City south to the Honduran border should
consider themselves under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane
watch, even though same have not been officially issued. An ounce of
prevention.


THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD PUT THE WINDS FROM THE EAST, ALONG WITH TIDAL
SURGES AND WAVES, INTO SAN PEDRO AND PROBABLY CAYE CAULKER.


The forecasts also call for Iris to reach maximum sustained winds of
105 miles an hour within 24 hours, and, despite the accelerated
forward speed, the more rapid strengthening could let Iris reach
upwards of 120 mph maximum sustained winds before she reaches land.


The whole zoo parade, Iris and Jerry, is visible on http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/caribbeansatellite_
large.html


Tropical Storm Jerry now has sustained winds near 50 miles an hour, is
centered about 60 miles southwest of Barados, moving
west-northwestward near 21 miles an hour. His projected track is here: http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/HurTrack2/

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#11257 - 10/08/01 03:43 AM Re: John Lankford, 6pm Sun
barefoot Offline
We agree, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Our big boats are leaving to Big Creek and Placencia at 1st light. After the devastation of Keith, we all need to be prepared. It looks like this will only be a category 1 or 2, but they do sink boats. Staying in a concrete home on the island is safe, plywood fortresses are another story. Good Luck to all, and God Speed.

Cheers,

Mike & Dawn O'Connor
Barefoot Watersports http://www.barefootwatersports.net

[This message has been edited by barefoot (edited 10-07-2001).]

[This message has been edited by barefoot (edited 10-07-2001).]

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#11258 - 10/08/01 04:36 AM Re: John Lankford, 6pm Sun
Caribbee Offline
The latest track does not look good at all! Direct on Belize City.

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#11259 - 10/08/01 05:02 AM Re: John Lankford, 6pm Sun
Christopher Offline
Well gang....here we are again....and I am not LIKING it!
If this one doesn't move off in some other direction except straight east....it's gonna be bad.
CC
_________________________
chris considine

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#11260 - 10/08/01 06:04 AM Re: John Lankford, 6pm Sun
Christopher Offline
Seeing the storm make a move toward Honduras more to the south at the moment...afraid it'll bounce off and head more NW towards us after that....
_________________________
chris considine

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#11261 - 10/08/01 06:07 AM Re: John Lankford, 6pm Sun
kimberly matson Offline
We have all been glued to this message board before, for the same reasons. Those of us in the states can only watch and wait and be available to help afterward. In the past, it has always made my heart glad that so many want to help out where and when they can. I am STILL planning on coming later this month, God willing. I had packed some medical supplies for the clinic. If needed, I will bring more. Just let me know if/(what) is needed. I will do what I can. Marty, great job! Thanks for keeping us posted, as you always do. Kim

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#11262 - 10/08/01 10:48 AM Re: John Lankford, 6pm Sun
margueriteellen Offline
Does anyone know if the TMM boats have been moved? thanks for any info on the siutation down there. Best of luck and stay safe everyone.
_________________________
marguerite

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#11263 - 10/08/01 11:31 AM Re: John Lankford, 6pm Sun
Barefoot Skinny Offline
I hear the TMM boats left long ago. All TMM boats are gone.
_________________________
PS. Find out what I'm up to at www.broadjam.com/barefootskinny

Your's not in the Caye of "A"

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#11264 - 10/08/01 12:06 PM Re: John Lankford, 6pm Sun
ojackieo Offline
On the yahoo.com weather it said that the hurricane was going to hit Belize head on, with very intense winds up to 134 mile per hour.It does not sound to good. I am keeping my fingers crossed and praying. It seems that is what the whole world is doing lately anymore. Good luck and stay safe.
Jackie

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#11265 - 10/08/01 12:21 PM Re: John Lankford, 6pm Sun
margueriteellen Offline
Thanks very much for the info Skinny. Stay safe.
_________________________
marguerite

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