HURRICANE IRIS NOW PREDICTED ASHORE ON BELIZE MAINLAND IN ABOUT 35
THIS SHORTENS EVACUATION TIME.
Hurricane Iris is not going west/northwest as it was earlier predicted
she would be when she cleared Jamaica. She is headed due west,
straight for the middle of Belize, and the National Hurricane Center
expects her to keep the same vector for the next 24 hours.
As the threat drifts southward, Honduras has a tropical storm WARNING
and a hurricane WATCH for that nation's north coast. But hurricane
WATCHES remain in effect from Belize City northward to Cabo Catoche,
the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and they may be upgraded
to hurricane WARNINGS tonight.
Iris is about 275 miles southeast of Grand Cayman, headed due west at
18 miles an hour. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85 miles an hour,
with hurricane force winds extending outward 25 miles from the center,
and tropical storm force winds out to 115 miles. Minimum central
pressure as measured by hand by Flyin' Fools is 991 millibars. That is
up 2 millibars from the 989 estimated from satellite indications in
the prior advisory.
Intellicast has accordingly moved their projected track southward a
bit. ON THE NEW TRACK IRIS WOULD CROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF AMBERGRIS
CAYE, OR GO BETWEEN AMBERGRIS CAYE AND CAYE CAULKER. http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/HurTrack1/
I think Intellicast needs to press down on that line just a little bit
more, and be prepared to do it again a time or two. Placencia, heads
very up. People from Belize City south to the Honduran border should
consider themselves under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane
watch, even though same have not been officially issued. An ounce of
THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD PUT THE WINDS FROM THE EAST, ALONG WITH TIDAL
SURGES AND WAVES, INTO SAN PEDRO AND PROBABLY CAYE CAULKER.
The forecasts also call for Iris to reach maximum sustained winds of
105 miles an hour within 24 hours, and, despite the accelerated
forward speed, the more rapid strengthening could let Iris reach
upwards of 120 mph maximum sustained winds before she reaches land.
The whole zoo parade, Iris and Jerry, is visible on http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/caribbeansatellite_
Tropical Storm Jerry now has sustained winds near 50 miles an hour, is
centered about 60 miles southwest of Barados, moving
west-northwestward near 21 miles an hour. His projected track is here: http://www.intellicast.com/Tropical/World/UnitedStates/HurTrack2/