Hurricane Iris Intermediate Advisory Number 16a
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on October 08, 2001


...Small but extremely dangerous Iris heading toward southern Belize...

Preparations to protect life and property in the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Caribbean coasts of Belize...Guatemala...and Honduras from the border with Guatemala eastward to Limon.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the east coast of the Yucatan from felipe carrillo Puerto southward to the border with Belize.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Mexican east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward to the Belize border. The Hurricane Watch for the Mexican coast may be discontinued later this afternoon.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Iris was located near latitude 16.9 north...longitude 85.9 west or about 165 miles...265 km...east-southeast of Belize City Belize.

Iris is moving just south of due west near 21 mph ...33 km/hr. A general west or slightly south of west motion is expected prior to landfall...bringing hurricane conditions to portions of Belize...Guatemala...northern Honduras and the adjacent islands later today and tonight. On the projected track...the center is expected to make landfall late tonight or early Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher gusts. Iris is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall.

Iris is an extremely small hurricane...with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 13-18 feet above normal tide levels... along with dangerous large battering waves...are likely near and to the north of where the center of the hurricane crosses the coast.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches...locally higher...are likely along the path of Iris. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...16.9 N... 85.9 W. Movement toward...just south of due west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT12/AL1201P.GIF
Jerry is hot on the trail...NOT GOOD...already 60 mph...and I see NO reason for it not to follow directly behind, the weather is gonna be the same.