HURRICANE IRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2001


...IRIS...A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...MAKES LANDFALL...

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.



AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS FROM THE
BORDER WITH GUATEMALA EASTWARD TO LIMON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN FROM FELIPE CARRILLO PUERTO SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
BELIZE.


AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BELIZE RADAR SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE IRIS WAS INLAND AND LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
BELIZE CITY BELIZE OR ABOUT 15 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MONKEY RIVER
BELIZE.


IRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH ...35 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HIGHER WINDS MAY OCCUR OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AS IRIS MOVES
INLAND. IRIS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.



IRIS REMAINS A VERY SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


THE STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13-18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE CROSSED
THE COAST WILL BEGIN SUBSIDING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.


RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE PATH OF IRIS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.4 N... 88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...TUESDAY.

================

Hurricane Iris Discussion Number 18
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 08, 2001


the Belize radar as well as infrared satellite imagery indicate that Iris made landfall near the town of monkey river Belize at approximately 10 PM EDT. The maximum winds at landfall were estimated to be 130 kts based upon Dvorak objective T-numbers. This was substantiated several hours earlier by a recon which measured a 127 kt surface wind via a dropsonde.

The initial motion of Iris has remained almost constant at 260/19 based upon both the recon and Belize radar center fixes. The track model guidance moves Iris rapidly across Central America on a westerly track. However...the system will begin weakening rapidly as it crosses the mountainous terrain in Belize and Guatemala and it is likely that the small circulation of Iris will not survive the passage into the eastern North Pacific.


[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-08-2001).]