Fifteen is a strange one -- sits there and just keeps on ticking. Notice how the "center" keeps moving west -- more inland. Against the Navy predictions.

Earlier in the year -- these tend to be cyclone "seed" for Pacific storm activity. That is they slip across Central America as a wet storm and become cyclones (hurricanes) -- in the Pacific side.

But Navy is saying this will cross to the "pocket" in front of Belize and become a tropical storm. No "hint" of a Mitch styler event -- just a wet, late in the season, tropical storm.

But they are throwing out numbers like 15 in of rain!! And we can see rain cloud formation over all of Belize -- and especially the South and West of Belize -- right now!!

Again -- prody over to:
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home

Click on 15L.NONAME in the upper right -- see for your selves.

Frank and Marty just got back from the Southern parts of Belize and witnessed so many families living with barest of housing accommodations. (A silent observer that was also along took many pictures to illustrate this point)

One needs little imagination to visualize how this present storm will be seriously and adversely effecting their life styles big time!! Especially pregnant, nursing women and young children. "No-Name" observed an almost universal lung infection rate -- with serious hollow coughing.

Misery # 15 has the potential to finish nailing down the lid on a lot of coffins in the Toledo district!! Not to mention becoming a minor hurricane doing the Keith Dance at the end of its travels and taking another swipe at the Northern Caye resorts.

The next 48 hours will be extremely "telling" indeed.

Here is what the latest bulletin has to say about everything:

(All the above Contributed by no-name hurricane watcher)

*********appended #1***********

000
WTNT35 KNHC 301433
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE OCT 30 2001

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES...70 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS ON THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION OVER LAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN EASTERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...250 TO 400 MILLIMETERS...ARE POSSIBLE...AND
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...13.9 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM EST.

FORECASTER BEVEN



************append #2**********

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------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------
BELIZE WEATHER BUREAU
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

GENERAL WEATHER FORECAST
--------------------------------------------------------
DATE: 30 OCT. 2001
TIME: 06:00am
--------------------------------------------------------
GENERAL SITUATION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #15 AT 3:00am WAS
STATIONARY NEAR 13.9N, 84.0W OR 45mls. WEST- SOUTHWEST OF
PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA, WITH MAX WINDS OF 35mph.
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINTAINS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
--------------------------------------------------------
24HR FORECAST: CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH SOME OUTBREAKS
OF SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY OVER COASTAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INLAND.
--------------------------------------------------------
WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST at 15-25kts.(with occnl higher gusts)
--------------------------------------------------------
SEAS: ROUGH! (SMALL CRAFT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT)
--------------------------------------------------------
OUTLOOK: CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN MAINLY OVER THE SEA AND COAST.
--------------------------------------------------------
TEMPERATURES:
HIGHS(TODAY) COASTAL 26C/79F INLAND 26C/79F
LOWS(TONIGHT) COASTAL 20C/682F INLAND 16C/61F
--------------------------------------------------------
TIDES:
HIGH- 8:57am LOW- 3:04pm
HIGH- 8:52pm LOW- 3:35am
--------------------------------------------------------
SUNRISE- 5:53am MOONSET- 5:18am
SUNSET- 5:23pm MOONRISE- 4:42pm
--------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL OUTLOOK: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #15 WAS STATIONARY
NEAR 13.9N 84.0W OR 45mls. WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS,
NICARAGUA WITH MAX WINDS OF 35mph.
--------------------------------------------------------

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