From a hurricane board, one of the better forecasters...
Isidore: Boy, the post storm analysis on this ( by the
way, their should be a link to the fab four going on,
Edouard,Fay,Gustav, and Hanna, which since they
came out of one pattern are all talked about in one
paper soon. It is written and in the can ( which some
of you may argue most of my writings should go) is
going to be a doozy. Isidore is a storm without a
heart..still. It has no central core, and without those
core values... oops wrong oration. Anyway It is
moving faster now than I thought yesterday, so
landfall will be quicker giving it less time over the
water, probably tomorrow morning in southeast
Louisiana. This means the pressure forecast I had for
a strong 2 or 3 is shot ( classic example of what I
was talking about above). However it still may be
playing possum, for as it gets close to the coast, the
water is warmer. The outflow is still good, and the
storm could tighten as it comes to the coast. Should
the convective bands rap in, or the center develops
thunderstorms, then this could still drop to 970 or
975 before landfall. The real problem from this storm
though is going to be coastal flooding and excessive
rain However the song remains the same overall and
as its turning out, fate was the hunter. For much like
we have seen in this summer, a reversal is about to
take place in a swath near and just west of the
storm track where 1-2 months of rain will fall in a 12
to 18 period with Isadore as it heads northeast, right
into areas that were driest over the last month or
two. I like the track just up west of the Appalachians
to near Buffalo by Friday night and up the St
Lawrence river valley Saturday Temperatures in the
rain cooled air in the lower lakes and Ohio valley
Friday may be 20 degrees below average, while
tropical air sweeps north east of the center and so
from the mid atlantic south, its a
shower/thunderstorm with the front type of deal. I
am worried about severe weather tomorrow Florida,
Alabama and Georgia and further northeast Friday.
Because Isidore is such a large storm with so much
warm air and low pressure there is ample reason to
believe a transition to extratropical will have it tap
baroclinic sources and remain strong all the way to
the lakes. It will be interesting to see what kind of
wind occurs with the storm all the way to the lower
lakes.
The rogue low developing on the Virginia capes
tonight will move northeast to near Nantucket by
Friday morning with another drought denting coastal
rain and gusty winds.
By Sunday Isidore will be gone and its front will
extend from north of Bermuda to the northern gulf.
Lili. this storm is going to cause great wailing and
gnashing of teeth from Florida perhaps north all the
way to New England. If it is going to affect New
England though its not for 10 days. Yes it appears
that our fears of a slow moving pest are gathering
momentum. The storm is still bursting convection, in
other words, not carrying it along, but that may be
about to change. The original center has fallen apart,
but just like in the predevelopment stage of Isidore,
the pressures in the entire area of the system are
lower. That represents more energy to bundle overall.
The scariest thing about Lili is that the place that
looks best for it is where it may stall or meander
about for several days, which is very close to Florida.
I am holding with my idea of the storm in the area
bounded by 22 and 25 north and 78 and 83 west for
Sunday, but the question is what happens after that.
There is question as to what happened before also.
If it is tangled up with Cuba for days, then while it
still can grow into a formidable entity at least there
is a chance it would not happen. A movement across
Cuba relatively fast, while avoiding Hispaniola would
be big trouble. Once in that area, the westerlies pull
north and with an east west high sitting from the mid
atlantic out over the water we will be faced with a
slow moving system that may take days to figure out
where it wants to go. In short, another round of
wailing and gnashing of teeth, where each correct
forecast idea can not be savored in the least since
the next one may bring the walls crashing down upon
the forecasters head.
Kyle the wild child will move west to southwest in a
stop and go fashion the next 5-7 days, probably
being somewhere between Bermuda and Hispaniola
next week at this time. If Kyle were still on the maps
2 weeks from now, I would not be in the least way
surprised. Many models simply try to get rid of it, but
it looks the best of all three systems, and the longer
it keeps coming southwest the better the chance its
not going to want to a) just die or b) simply move
away.
Notes and asides: The situation with Lili and the
strong winds yesterday was due to a very small
system and air accelerating in from the southeast
and converging on the system. The wind normally
roars 25-35 knots anyway through there on any given
summer day at 5,000 feet and so any system that
had some of the convergence that had will really
accelerate the wind, much like the kind of things that
happen with your car if you are travelling downhill on
curve of decreasing radius. Though winds are down
this morning, the area of lower pressure is much
larger and so the storm is increasing the amount of
energy available to it, and I do believe it will be
heard from again, so I am keeping option 2 from
yesterday.
Ambergris Caye 
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