Well for all the times I posted about storms headed for Belize, now we are under the gun here in south Florida.

The Weather Service fully expects hurricane Izzy to go big under favorable conditions. He's veered slightly under their expected track and will most likely shoot the Yucatan Channel this morning. The usually conservative NHC is saying it will become a major hurricane in 36 hours and many believe a strong class 4 in the Gulf of Mexico.

If Izzy turns towards our sand spit barrier island we are in for it. It is almost a certainty that whomever receives Izzy's landfall will experience a devastating impact.

Steering models are split between it moving west (as it currently is) or 150 miles off the west Florida coast and up into the panhandle. Many people along the Gulf are worried. Izzy has compounded this by having a split potential track and slow speed to make us wait out his grinding verdict. Things are getting nervous up here.

oh the price we pay to enjoy the waterfront the rest of the year. its going to be pins and needles til november. i know in the back of my mind that someday my home will have tidewaters in it if we take a direct hit. it still will be very depressing and devastating. the memories of past storms take a long time to go away. now we sit and wait.
gay

http://www.cnn.com/WEATHER/CAmerica/sat.html

That is us in that little hole in the middle. Not for long I think.
Jim

from http://www.wunderground.com ...a pretty reliable source... she should go well N. of AC.

>Hurricane Isidore Discussion Number 20
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2002


Isidore slowed down during the past few hours as it was crossing the
western portion of Cuba. The eye was observed by radars from Havana
...La Bajada Cuba...and Key West. A reconnaissance plane estimated
a minimum presure of 964 mb just prior to landfall. The eye is now
moving over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico but most of the
circulation and rainbands are expected to affect Cuba for several
more hours. An Air Force plane will be in tropical cyclone around
06 UTC and will determine if Isidore lost strength on its long trek
over western Cuba. The cloud pattern remains well organized with an
impressive outflow and numerous convective bands. Dvorak T-numbers
suggest winds between 90 and 100 knots. However...initial intensity
is kept at 85 knots since the eye has been moving over land for
several hours. Most of the global models continue to forecast an
ideal upper-level wind environment. Therefore...Isidore is forecast
to become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Models are in much better agreement tonight. Most of them show a
slow west or west-southwest moving hurricane along and not far from
the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula for the next 3 days.
This is the easiest part of the forecast. Thereafter...I see trouble
on the horizon. The NCEP Global Model...which previously kept
Isidore trapped in the Bay of Campeche is now turning the hurricane
northward. NOGAPS and the GFDL are also forecasting the northward
turn but a little bit sooner. The UK has become the only model that
moves the hurricane westward toward Mexico. This northward turn is
expected to occur when the strong mid-level low currently over the
Bahamas becomes replaced by a strong subtropical ridge. There is
consensus among models in this pattern change and in the northward
turn of the hurricane but they differ in the timing.


Forecaster Avila


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 21/0300z 22.4n 84.6w 85 kts
12hr VT 21/1200z 22.9n 85.4w 90 kts
24hr VT 22/0000z 23.0n 87.0w 100 kts
36hr VT 22/1200z 22.5n 88.0w 105 kts
48hr VT 23/0000z 22.5n 89.0w 110 kts
72hr VT 24/0000z 22.5n 90.0w 115 kts

HURRICANE ISIDORE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2002

THIS IS TO UPDATE THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO.

AT 6 AM CDT...1100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO
CATOCHE INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW
IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM TULUM TO PROGRESSO.

Izzy is currently tightening his eye over the warmest waters in the region. He is going strong into a category 4 hurricane soon.

I've been on this storm for 4 days and am tired. I made a mistake before saying he was heading for Cancun, that was a protracted stationary wobble. I also miscalculated his distance from Cancun. It is 45 miles, not 70 miles as I said.

He is stationary, but I believe he is possibly stutter-stepping WSW and could impact Yucatan. In any case, being a category 4 storm only 35 miles from the coast is close enough.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 212038
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2002

...ISIDORE GROWING STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE TONIGHT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING THE ISLAND
OF COZUMEL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES...90 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHEAST
TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

ISIDORE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF ISIDORE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE EYE WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN YUCATAN THIS EVENING...BUT JUST A
SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE EYE AND THE MOST
INTENSE WINDS ONSHORE.

MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND ISIDORE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF ISIDORE IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 T0 15 INCHES...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CUBA...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...21.9 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

He's quite a hurricane now. Just within category 4 on the north shore of Yucatan. All this with 1/3rd of himself over land. He's been doing wild wobbles like the one he did towards Cancun yesterday. However, this one looks like a landfall. He's only about 25 miles offshore now...

I'd be scooting from Progresso, Mexico on the north shore of Yucatan if I were them:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

000
WTNT35 KNHC 221148
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISIDORE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2002

...ISIDORE MOVES NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH 125 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM CAMPECHE NORTH AND EASTWARD TO TULUM...INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
COZUMEL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
ABOUT 25 MILES...35 KM...NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST
OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

ISIDORE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A SLIGHT
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MAY MOVE
ONSHORE...BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH IT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
ISIDORE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

SOME HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES ARE LIKELY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES. STORM SURGE FLOODING COULD INCREASE TO
8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...IF...AND WHERE...THE CENTER MOVES
ONSHORE.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...21.9 N... 88.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Thanks for the update Jesse.
Breeze really strong this morning...and temp has cooled off. Makes me a little nervous.

After Keith, any big wind makes me nervous...LOL

I must say it's a relief from the heat we've had.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed nothing funky happens.

Yes... thanks all for the up-dates!
No worry SS, BBW is still in the neighborhood. lol I'll be there for ya girl...
P.S. I love your new shade of lip gloss!

Actually that report is inaccurate since Cozumel and Cancun were safe as soon as he went west.

Belize is perfectly safe from this since there's 300 miles of Yucatan been them and Izzy and he's moving away.

What is troubling is the huge monsoonal draw he is resourcing all the way out into the Pacific. He's actually reversed the Intertropical Convergence Zone for 1500 miles into the Pacific.

He's only 125mph because of land interaction. His computer Dvorak satellite estimate is actually 127 knots at an impressive 934 millibars. He'll get that if he moves north, as he should eventually do when the neutral pattern breaks.

The Weather Service expects him to intensify if he moves towards the US...

from Merida, Sun AM
=======
we're hanging in. that's sure one big hairy eyeball. i'm hoping 8 mph is fast enough to hold track and outrun the front coming down. I think it'll bottle up in the bay of campeche IF it blows across the top of us going sw. raining hard now, frequent gusts over 40 i'm guessing. you can see the clouds moving faster toward they eye as it gets closer. We gonna be over 75 mph by tonite no matter what, and thats our best-case.

He's going to be close.

Izzy is planing the north shore right along its edge. I imagine the fishing villages there are being roughed up pretty good as his overwater eye rips down the shoreline with 120mph winds.

I read elsewhere that the Mexican government evacuated the shore areas north of Cancun yesterday. I imagine they cleared those bay villages as well.

Looks like your friend is in for an interesting evening...

Merida, 10:30am

things the same here, maybe a little stronger gusts (50mph?)...GOES IR shows some strong rain coming our way from the nw.

i swear the last 6 GOES shots have had the eye at 21.7n 88.8 w...this mofo is standing still. The eye seems to be breaking down, flattening out on the NW quadrant. What was very strong rain on the east side of the eye seems to be softening...i think he having trouble dragging his tail across land after being stalled from the NW. We'll see what they say at 1 central time.

At 1pm
about the same as it was at 10am. it could be actually coming toward shore, which i'm not sure is a bad thing. because it is skirting the shoreline, its interaction with land at the eye may help break down the eye and keep him from getting stronger. consecutive photos show some movement wsw, but i'm not sure i can buy into the 8mph story. You see that big ball of red on the NW corner of the yucatan in the 1745 goes floater? Thats hitting us right now. Its the strongest wind and rain we've seen. No lightning, so all electronics are on. Sat TV has lost signal a couple of times today (like it does any afternoon here when it rains hard), and cable internet has been up all day, as well as telephone. Local radio is on top of everything. Morning paper said 41 shelters were open around the state of Yucatan. anywhere from 12,000-20,000 evacuated from the coast, largest evacuation in the history of the state.

CHECK THE PRECIPTATION AMOUNTS

Current Weather Conditions:
Aerop. Internacional Merida, Yuc, Mexico

(MMMD) 20-59N 089-39W 11M
Conditions at Sep 22, 2002 - 04:10 PM EDT
Wind from the W (280 degrees) at 46 MPH (40 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions obscured
Weather Rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 78 F (26 C)
Relative Humidity 100%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.03 in. Hg (983 hPa)
Precipitation
Amount
35.01 inches In the 6 hours preceding Sep 22, 2002 - 12:45 PM EST / 2002.09.22 1745 UTC
70.99 inches In the 24 hours preceding Sep 20, 2002 - 08:45 PM EST / 2002.09.21 0145 UTC

Landfall Very Near Merida:

I don't have any direct information, but Izzy suddenly dove left and straight into Yucatan. His eye passed over the coastal village of Telchac Puerto and is within a few miles of Merida at this moment.

I imagine your friend is hunkering down right now in near-eyewall speed winds. The storm's strong side is abeam Merida right now...

He's going to have some stories to tell I'm sure...

Has there been any affect to AC at all?

My thaughts & prayers are with those guys up there!

Fred

Does anyone know it Izzy is around the Akumal area also?
Thank you.
Kathie

No contact from Merida for awhile. power out no doubt. the eye slid straight south from the waters edge to the east about 10-15 miles. still moving pretty much south.

here's my working links page when this stuff is going on.

http://AmbergrisCaye.com/hurricane/links.html

lots good links. the cancun radar link is the freshest today.



NO effect on AC. few higher clouds, just enuf to cool things off a bit, lil rain a day or so ago, not much.

The power keeps blinking and coming and going.
We are on the Yucatan power grid.
Quite a lighting show also-in every direction
Jim

Am I misinterpreting the data or is that 35 inches of rain in 6 hours accurate?

The Merida airport rain record looks screwed up because it says they got 70 inches in the preceding 24 hours.

Something is wrong there...

how is everyone fairing down there. hope to hear from you. . . .
jim?
anyone?
marty - do you have a report?
gay

We're OK here. Still gusty winds from southwest... no rain... overcast. Izzy is still headed south but losing strength... fortunately! Seems to want to visit Belize but too much land to cross. He'll dissipate while trying.

Needless to say, if he had done that southward turn by Cancun he would have been trouble...

CaptJesse,
As a former resident of S.P. I have seen a few storms. How has thie one affected S.P. ? Looks like a lot of rain on the weather channel. Can you give me a close up ? Thanks in advance !

If you want to get an impression of Izzy's potential look at this link. It shows his energy pool to be of vast proportion stretching 2000 miles into the Pacific and entraining the Inter-tropical monsoon trough into his pull:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

no radical weather in SPR at this time.

fairly gusty... 20-25 kts. gusting to 30. Very little rain, but overcast and a lil threatening. Coolish.

but its backing into the corozal area..
----------------
From Corozal, 1:45pm

Gusts of at least 60 mph -- coming from the South/west - Pouring rain -- cold -- huge waves -- heavy winds --
- three boats in Corozal got battered and sank!! We had to sail (motor with the 8 HP Honda four stroke) straight into the teeth -- and there were times we were being pushed backwards!!

Both boats got swamped by huge waves getting up the New River.

I was not properly dressed -- it was chill factor hell!! No food -- no
water -- was out there for hours to make a crossing that normally takes 45
minutes tops!!

It is hard from the US tv to determine if Isisore is backing into Belize with weather keep us informed. coming back at 12/31.kbg

gusty -- real gusty in Corozal -- and waves of side-ways rina --
the action is getting stronger.

In San Pedro, cool weather....S winds and a little drizzle. nothing major

Marty,
Guess, I have missed something, for all of us on the board, are you on a sailboat or North of SP and giving storm info
On another front love the new layout of the board
KBG from Alabama coming back to AC 12/31 for 9th time.

Here's another very good site for hurricane information:

http://www.storms2002.com/

Scott

Izzy is back in the Gulf and headed north towards the US. Experts are saying he should strike near New Orleans as a categorty 2 or 3 hurricane. Look out US!

The bay in Corozal is rising.
My yard along with most other waterfront properties are under water.
Luckily no water in any buildings...yet.
Lots of wind last night and still a bit gusty this morning.
Constant drizzel for 48 hours now but never had any huge downpours.
We had only 1 blackout and that was on Sunday night.
I think the worst might be over in Corozal according to satellite photos.

From a hurricane board, one of the better forecasters...

Isidore: Boy, the post storm analysis on this ( by the
way, their should be a link to the fab four going on,
Edouard,Fay,Gustav, and Hanna, which since they
came out of one pattern are all talked about in one
paper soon. It is written and in the can ( which some
of you may argue most of my writings should go) is
going to be a doozy. Isidore is a storm without a
heart..still. It has no central core, and without those
core values... oops wrong oration. Anyway It is
moving faster now than I thought yesterday, so
landfall will be quicker giving it less time over the
water, probably tomorrow morning in southeast
Louisiana. This means the pressure forecast I had for
a strong 2 or 3 is shot ( classic example of what I
was talking about above). However it still may be
playing possum, for as it gets close to the coast, the
water is warmer. The outflow is still good, and the
storm could tighten as it comes to the coast. Should
the convective bands rap in, or the center develops
thunderstorms, then this could still drop to 970 or
975 before landfall. The real problem from this storm
though is going to be coastal flooding and excessive
rain However the song remains the same overall and
as its turning out, fate was the hunter. For much like
we have seen in this summer, a reversal is about to
take place in a swath near and just west of the
storm track where 1-2 months of rain will fall in a 12
to 18 period with Isadore as it heads northeast, right
into areas that were driest over the last month or
two. I like the track just up west of the Appalachians
to near Buffalo by Friday night and up the St
Lawrence river valley Saturday Temperatures in the
rain cooled air in the lower lakes and Ohio valley
Friday may be 20 degrees below average, while
tropical air sweeps north east of the center and so
from the mid atlantic south, its a
shower/thunderstorm with the front type of deal. I
am worried about severe weather tomorrow Florida,
Alabama and Georgia and further northeast Friday.
Because Isidore is such a large storm with so much
warm air and low pressure there is ample reason to
believe a transition to extratropical will have it tap
baroclinic sources and remain strong all the way to
the lakes. It will be interesting to see what kind of
wind occurs with the storm all the way to the lower
lakes.

The rogue low developing on the Virginia capes
tonight will move northeast to near Nantucket by
Friday morning with another drought denting coastal
rain and gusty winds.

By Sunday Isidore will be gone and its front will
extend from north of Bermuda to the northern gulf.

Lili. this storm is going to cause great wailing and
gnashing of teeth from Florida perhaps north all the
way to New England. If it is going to affect New
England though its not for 10 days. Yes it appears
that our fears of a slow moving pest are gathering
momentum. The storm is still bursting convection, in
other words, not carrying it along, but that may be
about to change. The original center has fallen apart,
but just like in the predevelopment stage of Isidore,
the pressures in the entire area of the system are
lower. That represents more energy to bundle overall.

The scariest thing about Lili is that the place that
looks best for it is where it may stall or meander
about for several days, which is very close to Florida.
I am holding with my idea of the storm in the area
bounded by 22 and 25 north and 78 and 83 west for
Sunday, but the question is what happens after that.
There is question as to what happened before also.
If it is tangled up with Cuba for days, then while it
still can grow into a formidable entity at least there
is a chance it would not happen. A movement across
Cuba relatively fast, while avoiding Hispaniola would
be big trouble. Once in that area, the westerlies pull
north and with an east west high sitting from the mid
atlantic out over the water we will be faced with a
slow moving system that may take days to figure out
where it wants to go. In short, another round of
wailing and gnashing of teeth, where each correct
forecast idea can not be savored in the least since
the next one may bring the walls crashing down upon
the forecasters head.

Kyle the wild child will move west to southwest in a
stop and go fashion the next 5-7 days, probably
being somewhere between Bermuda and Hispaniola
next week at this time. If Kyle were still on the maps
2 weeks from now, I would not be in the least way
surprised. Many models simply try to get rid of it, but
it looks the best of all three systems, and the longer
it keeps coming southwest the better the chance its
not going to want to a) just die or b) simply move
away.

Notes and asides: The situation with Lili and the
strong winds yesterday was due to a very small
system and air accelerating in from the southeast
and converging on the system. The wind normally
roars 25-35 knots anyway through there on any given
summer day at 5,000 feet and so any system that
had some of the convergence that had will really
accelerate the wind, much like the kind of things that
happen with your car if you are travelling downhill on
curve of decreasing radius. Though winds are down
this morning, the area of lower pressure is much
larger and so the storm is increasing the amount of
energy available to it, and I do believe it will be
heard from again, so I am keeping option 2 from
yesterday.

The Yucatan took the "punch" out of Isidore -- which is now just a big wet
kiss
traveling to New Orleans looking for a lover.

Lili can't decide if it is dead or alive -- and is tracking according to
forecasts --

But as you read below -- it probably will not survive long enough to reach
many predicted points.

We here in Northern Belize are still living in hurricane tail -- coolish --
drizzle -- etc.

But for now -- all our problems are over.

No more hurricanes around!!
Peter Singfield

LILI MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 300 MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
TROPICAL STORM LILI AND THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER. IF THE CENTER DOES NOT
BECOME BETTER DEFINED...THEN LILI COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
WAVE LATER TODAY AND WATCHES MAY BE DISCONTINUED.

the local Merida paper has photos from Isidore

http://edicion.yucatan.com.mx/noticias/noticia.asp?cx=11$2812000000$1641509