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#145464 - 09/20/02 06:02 AM Hurricane Isidore
Tradewind Offline
Well for all the times I posted about storms headed for Belize, now we are under the gun here in south Florida.

The Weather Service fully expects hurricane Izzy to go big under favorable conditions. He's veered slightly under their expected track and will most likely shoot the Yucatan Channel this morning. The usually conservative NHC is saying it will become a major hurricane in 36 hours and many believe a strong class 4 in the Gulf of Mexico.

If Izzy turns towards our sand spit barrier island we are in for it. It is almost a certainty that whomever receives Izzy's landfall will experience a devastating impact.

Steering models are split between it moving west (as it currently is) or 150 miles off the west Florida coast and up into the panhandle. Many people along the Gulf are worried. Izzy has compounded this by having a split potential track and slow speed to make us wait out his grinding verdict. Things are getting nervous up here.

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#145465 - 09/20/02 02:38 PM Re: Hurricane Isidore
GAY AND DAVID Offline
oh the price we pay to enjoy the waterfront the rest of the year. its going to be pins and needles til november. i know in the back of my mind that someday my home will have tidewaters in it if we take a direct hit. it still will be very depressing and devastating. the memories of past storms take a long time to go away. now we sit and wait.
gay

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#145466 - 09/21/02 01:25 AM Re: Hurricane Isidore
JmHanna Offline
http://www.cnn.com/WEATHER/CAmerica/sat.html

That is us in that little hole in the middle. Not for long I think.
Jim
_________________________
Jim

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#145467 - 09/21/02 04:48 AM Re: Hurricane Isidore
SFJeff Offline
from www.wunderground.com ...a pretty reliable source... she should go well N. of AC.

>Hurricane Isidore Discussion Number 20
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2002


Isidore slowed down during the past few hours as it was crossing the
western portion of Cuba. The eye was observed by radars from Havana
...La Bajada Cuba...and Key West. A reconnaissance plane estimated
a minimum presure of 964 mb just prior to landfall. The eye is now
moving over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico but most of the
circulation and rainbands are expected to affect Cuba for several
more hours. An Air Force plane will be in tropical cyclone around
06 UTC and will determine if Isidore lost strength on its long trek
over western Cuba. The cloud pattern remains well organized with an
impressive outflow and numerous convective bands. Dvorak T-numbers
suggest winds between 90 and 100 knots. However...initial intensity
is kept at 85 knots since the eye has been moving over land for
several hours. Most of the global models continue to forecast an
ideal upper-level wind environment. Therefore...Isidore is forecast
to become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Models are in much better agreement tonight. Most of them show a
slow west or west-southwest moving hurricane along and not far from
the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula for the next 3 days.
This is the easiest part of the forecast. Thereafter...I see trouble
on the horizon. The NCEP Global Model...which previously kept
Isidore trapped in the Bay of Campeche is now turning the hurricane
northward. NOGAPS and the GFDL are also forecasting the northward
turn but a little bit sooner. The UK has become the only model that
moves the hurricane westward toward Mexico. This northward turn is
expected to occur when the strong mid-level low currently over the
Bahamas becomes replaced by a strong subtropical ridge. There is
consensus among models in this pattern change and in the northward
turn of the hurricane but they differ in the timing.


Forecaster Avila


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 21/0300z 22.4n 84.6w 85 kts
12hr VT 21/1200z 22.9n 85.4w 90 kts
24hr VT 22/0000z 23.0n 87.0w 100 kts
36hr VT 22/1200z 22.5n 88.0w 105 kts
48hr VT 23/0000z 22.5n 89.0w 110 kts
72hr VT 24/0000z 22.5n 90.0w 115 kts

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#145468 - 09/21/02 12:49 PM Re: Hurricane Isidore
karin Offline
HURRICANE ISIDORE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2002

THIS IS TO UPDATE THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO.

AT 6 AM CDT...1100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO
CATOCHE INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW
IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM TULUM TO PROGRESSO.

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#145469 - 09/21/02 10:08 PM Re: Hurricane Isidore
Tradewind Offline
Izzy is currently tightening his eye over the warmest waters in the region. He is going strong into a category 4 hurricane soon.

I've been on this storm for 4 days and am tired. I made a mistake before saying he was heading for Cancun, that was a protracted stationary wobble. I also miscalculated his distance from Cancun. It is 45 miles, not 70 miles as I said.

He is stationary, but I believe he is possibly stutter-stepping WSW and could impact Yucatan. In any case, being a category 4 storm only 35 miles from the coast is close enough.

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#145470 - 09/21/02 11:57 PM Re: Hurricane Isidore
SP Daily Offline
000
WTNT35 KNHC 212038
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2002

...ISIDORE GROWING STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE TONIGHT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING THE ISLAND
OF COZUMEL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES...90 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHEAST
TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

ISIDORE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF ISIDORE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE EYE WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN YUCATAN THIS EVENING...BUT JUST A
SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE EYE AND THE MOST
INTENSE WINDS ONSHORE.

MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND ISIDORE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF ISIDORE IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 T0 15 INCHES...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CUBA...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...21.9 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

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#145471 - 09/22/02 01:23 PM Re: Hurricane Isidore
Tradewind Offline
He's quite a hurricane now. Just within category 4 on the north shore of Yucatan. All this with 1/3rd of himself over land. He's been doing wild wobbles like the one he did towards Cancun yesterday. However, this one looks like a landfall. He's only about 25 miles offshore now...

I'd be scooting from Progresso, Mexico on the north shore of Yucatan if I were them:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

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#145472 - 09/22/02 02:36 PM Re: Hurricane Isidore
SP Daily Offline
000
WTNT35 KNHC 221148
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISIDORE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2002

...ISIDORE MOVES NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH 125 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM CAMPECHE NORTH AND EASTWARD TO TULUM...INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
COZUMEL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
ABOUT 25 MILES...35 KM...NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST
OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

ISIDORE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A SLIGHT
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MAY MOVE
ONSHORE...BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH IT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
ISIDORE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

SOME HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES ARE LIKELY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES. STORM SURGE FLOODING COULD INCREASE TO
8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...IF...AND WHERE...THE CENTER MOVES
ONSHORE.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...21.9 N... 88.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

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#145473 - 09/22/02 03:30 PM Re: Hurricane Isidore
Sandshaker Offline
Thanks for the update Jesse.
Breeze really strong this morning...and temp has cooled off. Makes me a little nervous.

After Keith, any big wind makes me nervous...LOL

I must say it's a relief from the heat we've had.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed nothing funky happens.

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