USUALLY October is about 50% sunny days and 50% stormy-overcast. It is the riskiest month of the year for storms in Belize.
Forecasters have predicted that 2003 will see hurricane activity 50% above normal. Hurricane SEason in the tropical atlantic is from June 1 to November 30. Every rebion within that the Tropical Atlantic experiences differnt patterns during that time. For Belize, most of "Hurricane Season" is nothing to worry about ----- lovely weather, great diving, etc. Our troubles come late in the season.
September is the time of "peak storm/hurricane activity" in the Caribbean basin. October appears to be the "peak" time for Belize.
We have entered a "more active" weather phase (predicted to last several years) in the region.
Belize --- not much serious weather trouble for many years, as we are situated in an area that is supposed to be "difficult" for a storm to reach due to land masses, etc ........ But then.....
October 20-something 1999 - Hurricane Mitch. At first it appeared that Belize would suffer a direct hit from this mega-storm with sustained winds over 200 MPH(dubbed storm of the century). A high-pressure system stalled it (allowing it to get stronger and stronger) and then pushed Mitch down to the Bay Islands off Honduras. Impact on Belize - evacuations / the country esentially shut down for a week. 90% of the piers on AC were lost. Extensive flooding on mainland from intense rains.
October 1 - 2000 - Hurricane Keith - category 4 - stalled over AC and Caye Caulker. Occasionally this event can be seen on the travel channel in a segment called "Vacation Disasters". REALLY bad. Unfortunately most of us on AC got front row seats, as Keith went from a little nothing of a storm predicted to pass us by, to a cat-4 headed directly our way in the middle of the night.
October 8 - 2001 - Hurricane Iris - Category 4 - direct hit on Monkey River Town / South Placencia Peninsula - quick moving, extensive damage, but "could have been worse".
2002 - nothing of note hit us - sigh. We liked that a lot. AND October was absolutely beautiful weather out here on AC.
Generally speaking - on AC, at least on night in October we get a rain of around 15 inches - that is without it being a "storm" in the classic sense. Boats sink, roads are mucked up, and normally dry parcels of land are temporary frog-ponds.
Are you going to get killed in a storm in October? Highly unlikely. Will you get to see the country easily and without distraction/interruption/rutted muddy roads - also unlikely.