#207101 - 08/10/04 03:45 PM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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False reporting got it removed. Here's the latest official report: BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
...CHARLEY MOVING NEAR JAMAICA...HEADED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF OR VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF JAMAICA TONIGHT. RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF JAMAICA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 77.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.
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#207103 - 08/11/04 09:17 AM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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I hope this thing does not head toward AC. Will be there Friday for a week and really need a vacation. Thanks for the updates.
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#207104 - 08/11/04 10:14 AM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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from CH5TV: Hurricane Charley no threat...yet
It poses no immediate threat to Belize, but when it comes to hurricanes or tropical storms, we have seen too many times that forecasting is still a very inexact science. That is why meteorologists in Belize and the region are keeping a close eye on Charley, the season’s third named storm, which is tonight swimming across the Caribbean like a barracuda chasing a school of sprat. Late this evening, the centre of Tropical Storm Charley was located well southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Forecasters expect that as Charley moves past that island it will strengthen into a hurricane. Acting Chief Meteorologist Ramon Frutos says while the system is not expected to affect the country, Belizeans should use it as a reminder to be prepared.
Ramon Frutos, Ag. Chief Meteorologist “Basically that is what the projections are indicting; that as Charley continues on a west north westerly track during the next twelve to twenty-four hours, it will tend to move or the trajectory will change to a more northerly track as it enters the North Western Caribbean.”
“Any system that develops in the Caribbean should be concerned to all interest n the Caribbean. And Charley was or is at the moment in the Central Caribbean. However, indications are pointing that Charley will swing more towards the northwest as it moves into the Western Caribbean later on Wednesday and on Thursday. So, Belizeans should continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Charley during the next twenty-four to thirty-six hours.”
“Well I think most Belizeans should continue to review their hurricane plan. And companies and agencies should be doing the same, just to be sure that they are in a position, prepared or any eventuality. But I should say that at this point, we need not worry too much of any major impact that Charley could have on the country of Belize.”
The Governments of Haiti and Jamaica have issued tropical storm warnings, while authorities in the Cayman Islands have placed residents on a Tropical storm watch. Charley is moving toward the west-northwest at near twenty-six miles per hour with maximum sustained winds near fifty miles per hour. Some strengthening is expected over the next twenty four hours. Frutos says computer models project Tropical Storm Charley to pass through Cuba’s Isle of Youth on Friday morning.
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#207105 - 08/11/04 10:15 AM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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Hi Laurie, Have a great time - you shouldn't have any problem with the storms if you are still flying in from the west coast. i got back about 3 weeks ago and sat in the Pub Crawlers spot several times at BC's. I think we need to make another pub crawl though cause there are folks writing over our fading names! Didn't do a crawl this last trip, but did a mini one in May with 4 sisters and two neices and we went to all the "back a there" bars including Black and White, Riverside, One Barrel (they are now prefered over Cholo's for Coco Locos) and old standbys like Cholos, Sharks, Canucks, Holiday Hotel, Banana Beach and Mata Rocks. I know you will have a blast!
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#207106 - 08/11/04 11:49 AM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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Thanks for the information Jesse and Diane. We're praying Belize has a calm Hurricane season.
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#207107 - 08/11/04 12:22 PM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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I started that topic and advise nobody ever rely on a message board for hurricane information due to its life threatening nature. If Jesse removed it I approve. Just popped back to tell that this one is coming at us here in SW Florida. First serious one since we moved here. The track takes it right over us. I suggest it will be strong but will keep why short. I've got a lot of work to do today clearing the deck of furniture and getting pots off the lawn and deck. Local authorities are starting to go ballistic here. They say it will hit on a high tide. Vacationers are being advised to leave. It goes right over us on this NHC map: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0304W+GIF/111508W.gif
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#207108 - 08/11/04 12:25 PM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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Jesse:
Trust me, Charley won't go anywhere near Belize. A strong unseasonable front is descending from the US continent and will absolutely pull Charley north and towards Florida...
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#207109 - 08/11/04 12:30 PM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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Thanks but since these reports can be a matter of life or death we'll stick with the official ones.
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#207110 - 08/11/04 12:36 PM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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That is the official one Jesse. I mean you still have to have a topic on it right mate? Relax, I'm the one under the gun...
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#207111 - 08/11/04 02:43 PM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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Five years ago Mitch was supposed to turn north but instead went south and west, killing close to 20,000. Please do not advise people to stop paying attention!
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#207112 - 08/11/04 04:28 PM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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Kieth was only a storm when I went to bed the night before....
_________________________
Reality..What a concept!
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#207113 - 08/11/04 08:39 PM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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OK I'll play. A cold front is like a brick wall for cyclones. - but OK...
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#207114 - 08/11/04 10:44 PM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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Jesse, where did you get that number, 20,000??
_________________________
gforrest.imageculture.com
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#207115 - 08/12/04 08:23 AM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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#207116 - 08/12/04 09:17 AM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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The estimated death toll from Mitch currently stands at 9,086. Fact Sheet #21 from the U.S. Agency for International Development (Table 6), as of December 1998, compiled the following death totals: Honduras, 5677; Nicaragua, 2,863; Guatemala, 258; El Salvador; 239; Mexico, 9 and 7 in Costa Rica. The death toll also includes 31 fatalities associated with the schooner Fantome. In addition, another 9191 persons were listed as missing. The exact death toll will probably never be known.
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#207117 - 08/12/04 09:30 AM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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I believe NOAA put the total deaths from Mitch in 1998 at about 11,000, mostly from inland flooding in Nicaragua and Honduras. But the total number will never be known for sure and was probably higher. It's considered one of the worst tropical hurricanes/cyclones in history, comparable to the Galveston hurricane of 1900 and Hurricane Fifi in 1974 in Honduras.
The death toll from Keith in 2000 was 24 -- 5 in Belize, 12 in Nicaragua, 6 in Honduras, and 1 in Mexico.
Hurricane Iris in 2001 killed 20 people near Placencia.
Hurricane Hattie in late October 1961 is thought to have killed 400 around Belize City and probably more. Hurricane Janet in 1955 killed about 700 people, mostly around Chetumal -- I think about a dozen in Belize died, in Corozal.
The worst modern hurricane in Belize was in September 1931, when around 1,000 people were killed.
--Lan Sluder
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#207118 - 08/12/04 09:53 AM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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Hey, don't forget! My storage building in Ladyville is built to withstand "hurricane strength" winds in excess of 130 mph. How many of you have called me?
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#207120 - 08/12/04 10:41 AM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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Hi Gail: Yes, I know it will be great! I haven't had time to watch the news or check up on this storm, so I hope everything is still way far away from Belize!
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#207121 - 08/12/04 08:05 PM
Re: TROPICAL STORM
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The statistics from Kieth are inaccurate.
_________________________
Jim
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