000
WTNT34 KNHC 092029
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

AT 5 PM...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM
MATANZAS EASTWARD.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150
MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS....IVAN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPROTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

From LOVE FM:
>HURRICANE EFFECT ON BELIZE...

September is a time of year active with tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes. Over the past days, Frances, now a tropical depression and now Hurricane Ivan, have left a path of destruction in a number of Caribbean countries and the United States. Even though they pose no threat at this time to Belize, people are still keeping a close eye on the Hurricane. Speaking with Love News, National Emergency Coordinator, Earl Arthurs, says Belize is prepared in the event of any storm or hurricane. He said that I’ve always explained over the years that disaster preparedness is not prepared or not prepared; it is more like a journey. We strive to be better prepared than we were prepared the day before. This year Belize now boasts its new NEMO hurricane center at its headquarters. We have gotten new radios installed, new communication towers in Belmopan and Baldy Beacon. We are better prepared than we were last year. The country may be prepared with updated technology, but some residents say this is not enough. We have received several calls saying that a number of towns are still without proper hurricane shelters. We asked Arthurs about this.
He responded by saying you’ll never get everything that everybody wants. People will always complain, but we have plans, procedures. The thing is if you don’t have enough shelters in a village, we have organized an evacuation plan. For instance, there is not enough shelters in San Pedro and Caye Caulker, but there is a plan to evacuate people from San Pedro and Caye Caulker all the way to Belmopan and Orange Walk, and San Ignacio Town. Most people are not happy with that, they would prefer just to build a number of shelters in their locations and that is not practical. Same thing is true for Punta Gorda Town.

Baldy Beacon, not Valde Peacan. Fingers crossed...

Jamaica should take a hard hit later today.


They have Ivan about 70 miles west of us as it passes here in SW Florida. We are preparing slowly for our potential second major hurricane in a month.

I'm patching my roof vent and still haven't waterproofed it to satisfaction. Used roof caulking today and will try solid patch tomorrow prior to Ivan. Charley blew the cover off and Frances ripped the rest away. The flat top part of the roof now drains into the vent hole. If we get 18 hours of hurricane rains we could have a disaster inside. Since we have a tin-roof I've purchased a large sheet of magnetized sheeting. It doesn't stick as much as I hoped, but I have found cracks to jam it in. I would use plywood but I need to get on the roof to do it and it won't seal. Real worries!

Florida Keys now under progressive mandatory evacuation order. (We are downrange from Keys)

Ivan: Belize still not out of the woods

While a hundred thousand Grenadians try to put their lives back together and two point five million Jamaicans anxiously prepare for the worst, the nation of Belize holds its breath as Hurricane Ivan looks like a near miss. This morning News 5's Jacqueline Woods visited the Met Office in Ladyville and found that we're not quite out of danger.

Jacqueline Woods, Reporting
Although most weather models are predicting that hurricane Ivan will continue on a west north-west movement towards Jamaica, local forecasters are still keeping a close eye on the killer storm. Since midnight, Ivan has basically kept on the projected course, but based on track records of past hurricanes, Deputy Chief Meteorologist Ramon Frutos says the country is still not yet out of the woods.

Ramon Frutos, Deputy Chief Meteorologist
“And we have noticed from the records from the First to the tenth day of September and also from the eleventh and twentieth day of September, that historically these storms that form far south they move more on a west north westerly track towards the coast of Yucatan or Belize and Central America.

“We can safely say that Belize will be free of any major impact of Ivan when Ivan reaches a latitude that is parallel or in line with Northern Belize which is approximately between eighteen degrees north and nineteen degrees north latitude. When Ivan reaches nineteen degrees north latitude east of Belize in the western Caribbean, then we can say that we are fairly safe from any major impact of Ivan.”

Hurricane Ivan is being guided by a number of factors including a well established steering current that is moving the storm west north-west. It is also being carried along its present track by a ridge of high pressure across the western Atlantic and a broad trough of low pressure that runs from Central America up into the east coast of the United States in the wake of Hurricane Frances. While the number of hurricanes predicted for this season, has already been surpassed Frutos says Belizeans should not become complacent because we are heading towards the peak of the hurricane season.

Ramon Frutos
“First of you have to realize that we began this hurricane season very inactive. In June we did not have any storms; July we didn’t get any storms, but all of a sudden in August we had almost seven or eight named storms forming and Ivan is the last of these as we move into the first ten days of September. So it is possible that this trend will continue.”

The National Weather Service will remain on twenty-four hour alert until the country is cleared from any potential impact from Hurricane Ivan. Jacqueline Woods for News Five.

Viewers are asked not to stray too far from a radio or television over the long holiday weekend.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101749
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SOON IN JAMAICA...PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA
FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CORE OF IVAN TO NEAR JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939
MB...27.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA


$$

Ivan's ripping the south shore of Jamaica right now in an intensification burst back to 150mph. Very bad. A burst passing tends to be more damaging.

If it dodges Jamaica's south shore it gets more of a clean run at us in SW Florida...

Ivan keeps slowing down...the slower they move, the harder they are to predict. Keith and Mitch are proof of that. Last few frames covering 90 minutes of satellite imagery shows Ivan moving due West. Did the NHC mention that?

I agree somewhat with an earlier post...the really powerful storms can sometimes steer themselves. I think this is particularly true if the motion is slow. This thing has my full attention.