Here are some good sites to watch a hurricane:
There's a whole list of links elsewhere on ambergriscaye.com

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

http://megaopps.8m.com/models.html

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html


http://AmbergrisCaye.com/hurricane/links.html

Thank you Cap'n Jesse

Thanks. Yes, I found some other good links too.

They say Ivan will pull-up towards us. I know Jesse is trying to keep hurricane hysterics to a minimum, but this one came in on a classic low-track. So far he has gone south of the "official forecaster's" predictions and is now 150 miles further south than where our National Hurricane Center placed him 48 hours ago.

Am I screaming a warning to Belize - no, he'll probably do what they say. Still though, if I were down there I would want to be looking at it.

I spent several hours today jerry-rigging some plywood patches into our open roof vent. After Charley blew the cover back, he at least left the top part sealed to the roof for diverting rain. Frances was only 50mph here on the SW coast of Florida, but was here for 30 hours! It ripped the remaining top flap off and let the rain pour down into the vent hole like a drain! So I took some plywood and cut approximate patches and then screwed some cross-members in for bracing. I managed to slip the cross members snug between the roof plywood and the zinc and then injected foam into the gaps. The spray foam expanded and set and should at least keep the tropical downpours out.

Pretty boring stuff, except for the fact that we started to get wallboard damage 3 weeks after the hurricane. You can't get contractors for small jobs. There are literally hundreds of thousands of people looking for roofing help. The state is a disaster area from Gainsville south to Ft Lauderdale. If I had a 45 foot ladder I could do it myself.

Ivan spun-up just prior to hitting Grenada. Reports say he destroyed the Prime Minister's house as well as the emergency operations center. 9 deaths at first count. He then got 15mph stronger after leaving Grenada. Official comment said damage in St George capitol was "incalculable"...

As I live the dream and own my little piece of heaven on Bonaire, Ivan is a huge worry, and is doing the unexpected. There has not been a hurricane near there for almost 70 years. I was just on the phone with folks there, and they report that it is very dark, and very still. They say it is a serious situation for them. Island electricity will be planned shut-off in a few hours, a very smart thing to do. My prayers go out to those on this tiny island, and I hope somehow a miracle happens and they do not take a direct hit. A tropical wave there a few years ago damaged alot of the leeward waterfront. I hope to find my house still standing. Mother nature has a crazy sense of humor. I think the folks in Belize take all tropical weather seriously, and will be watching closely, and I hope it takes a path away from the area. The sad thing though is that everytime you wish it away from on area, you are wishing devastation on some place else. The price of paradise sometimes comes high.

Very true DB.
--Lee

Ivan is getting very serious now at 150mph and improving in appearance. He could match some historic storms in intensity at this point in this location.

From the satellite animation I would suggest Bonaire was just clipped by lesser hurricane winds on the outer edge of the weaker west side of the cyclone. There were probably huge waves on the north shore. The eye missed the island to the north by about 100 miles.

Dr Steve Lyons of The Weather Channel suggests Ivan is behaving like many classic low-tracking powerful Caribbean storms and cutting its own path through the steering currents. These storms tend to keep going straight towards Central America.

Today's return to a mostly west heading should notch up concern in Yucatan areas to start watching with interest. The storm is expected to pull-up towards Jamaica and head NW towards the Gulf Of Mexico, however Ivan has now defied official track predictions for 3 straight days and stayed south of predicted course.

Ivan is settling at 150mph and 938 pressure before entering an area of the Caribbean known to strengthen storms. Every possibility should be allowed for Ivan to become a cyclone of Gilbert or Mitch-like strength in the next day...

Until Ivan pulls north all Caribbean interests should be on alert...

So whats your gut telling you Jesse?
I know we have seen these before. A hunch? Wild ass guess? dart board?
cool the jets till friday?

FROM CH5TV:
Is Hurricane Ivan a threat to Belize?

It's still a long way across the Caribbean but a look back into history, both near and far, tells us that Hurricane Ivan, located just north of the Dutch ABC Islands, bears close watching. News 5's Stewart Krohn did some research and found that the only thing we really know about hurricane forecasting...is that we don't know.

While conventional wisdom, not to mention the Weather Channel, invariably has hurricanes that begin in the Atlantic tracking to the north through Hispaniola, Jamaica or Cuba, a look at the paths of major storms affecting Belize shows that many stay on a westerly heading right up to landfall. The great-unnamed hurricane of 1931, for example, made only the gentlest of northerly swings before slamming into Belize City on September 10th. Hurricane Janet, in 1955, had almost the exact same origins as today’s Ivan, hitting both Barbados and Grenada before devastating Corozal Town . Hattie in 1961, proved that no hurricane can be trusted, as it made an abrupt left turn as if drawn by a magnet to the Belize coast. Even more erratic was the killer called Mitch that literally made a circle of devastation around Belize as if some unseen force ordained that 1998 would not be our year for pain. Our luck was short lived, of course, as Hurricane Keith pounded the north in 2000, Iris massacred the South in 2001 and Tropical Storm Chantal flooded Orange Walk and Corozal that same year. In 1974, Fifi and Carmen demonstrated that hurricanes can maintain long westerly tracks while Greta did the same thing in 1978. What all this data means is simply that even with all their satellites, radar and super computers, scientists still cannot tell us with much confidence where today’s hurricane will be in two or three days time.

Stewart Krohn for News 5.

The best website to find the tracks of past hurricanes is http://www.csc.noaa.gov. Viewers are advised to pay close attention to the official forecasts from Belize's Meteorology Department, as, unlike U.S. based weather services, our experts are paying prime attention to Belize's interests and not those of Uncle Sam. By this time Thursday we should have a pretty good idea of what kind of plans we'll need to make for the long holiday weekend

000
WTNT34 KNHC 092029
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

AT 5 PM...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM
MATANZAS EASTWARD.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150
MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS....IVAN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPROTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

From LOVE FM:
>HURRICANE EFFECT ON BELIZE...

September is a time of year active with tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes. Over the past days, Frances, now a tropical depression and now Hurricane Ivan, have left a path of destruction in a number of Caribbean countries and the United States. Even though they pose no threat at this time to Belize, people are still keeping a close eye on the Hurricane. Speaking with Love News, National Emergency Coordinator, Earl Arthurs, says Belize is prepared in the event of any storm or hurricane. He said that I’ve always explained over the years that disaster preparedness is not prepared or not prepared; it is more like a journey. We strive to be better prepared than we were prepared the day before. This year Belize now boasts its new NEMO hurricane center at its headquarters. We have gotten new radios installed, new communication towers in Belmopan and Baldy Beacon. We are better prepared than we were last year. The country may be prepared with updated technology, but some residents say this is not enough. We have received several calls saying that a number of towns are still without proper hurricane shelters. We asked Arthurs about this.
He responded by saying you’ll never get everything that everybody wants. People will always complain, but we have plans, procedures. The thing is if you don’t have enough shelters in a village, we have organized an evacuation plan. For instance, there is not enough shelters in San Pedro and Caye Caulker, but there is a plan to evacuate people from San Pedro and Caye Caulker all the way to Belmopan and Orange Walk, and San Ignacio Town. Most people are not happy with that, they would prefer just to build a number of shelters in their locations and that is not practical. Same thing is true for Punta Gorda Town.

Baldy Beacon, not Valde Peacan. Fingers crossed...

Jamaica should take a hard hit later today.


They have Ivan about 70 miles west of us as it passes here in SW Florida. We are preparing slowly for our potential second major hurricane in a month.

I'm patching my roof vent and still haven't waterproofed it to satisfaction. Used roof caulking today and will try solid patch tomorrow prior to Ivan. Charley blew the cover off and Frances ripped the rest away. The flat top part of the roof now drains into the vent hole. If we get 18 hours of hurricane rains we could have a disaster inside. Since we have a tin-roof I've purchased a large sheet of magnetized sheeting. It doesn't stick as much as I hoped, but I have found cracks to jam it in. I would use plywood but I need to get on the roof to do it and it won't seal. Real worries!

Florida Keys now under progressive mandatory evacuation order. (We are downrange from Keys)

Ivan: Belize still not out of the woods

While a hundred thousand Grenadians try to put their lives back together and two point five million Jamaicans anxiously prepare for the worst, the nation of Belize holds its breath as Hurricane Ivan looks like a near miss. This morning News 5's Jacqueline Woods visited the Met Office in Ladyville and found that we're not quite out of danger.

Jacqueline Woods, Reporting
Although most weather models are predicting that hurricane Ivan will continue on a west north-west movement towards Jamaica, local forecasters are still keeping a close eye on the killer storm. Since midnight, Ivan has basically kept on the projected course, but based on track records of past hurricanes, Deputy Chief Meteorologist Ramon Frutos says the country is still not yet out of the woods.

Ramon Frutos, Deputy Chief Meteorologist
“And we have noticed from the records from the First to the tenth day of September and also from the eleventh and twentieth day of September, that historically these storms that form far south they move more on a west north westerly track towards the coast of Yucatan or Belize and Central America.

“We can safely say that Belize will be free of any major impact of Ivan when Ivan reaches a latitude that is parallel or in line with Northern Belize which is approximately between eighteen degrees north and nineteen degrees north latitude. When Ivan reaches nineteen degrees north latitude east of Belize in the western Caribbean, then we can say that we are fairly safe from any major impact of Ivan.”

Hurricane Ivan is being guided by a number of factors including a well established steering current that is moving the storm west north-west. It is also being carried along its present track by a ridge of high pressure across the western Atlantic and a broad trough of low pressure that runs from Central America up into the east coast of the United States in the wake of Hurricane Frances. While the number of hurricanes predicted for this season, has already been surpassed Frutos says Belizeans should not become complacent because we are heading towards the peak of the hurricane season.

Ramon Frutos
“First of you have to realize that we began this hurricane season very inactive. In June we did not have any storms; July we didn’t get any storms, but all of a sudden in August we had almost seven or eight named storms forming and Ivan is the last of these as we move into the first ten days of September. So it is possible that this trend will continue.”

The National Weather Service will remain on twenty-four hour alert until the country is cleared from any potential impact from Hurricane Ivan. Jacqueline Woods for News Five.

Viewers are asked not to stray too far from a radio or television over the long holiday weekend.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101749
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SOON IN JAMAICA...PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA
FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CORE OF IVAN TO NEAR JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939
MB...27.73 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA


$$

Ivan's ripping the south shore of Jamaica right now in an intensification burst back to 150mph. Very bad. A burst passing tends to be more damaging.

If it dodges Jamaica's south shore it gets more of a clean run at us in SW Florida...

Ivan keeps slowing down...the slower they move, the harder they are to predict. Keith and Mitch are proof of that. Last few frames covering 90 minutes of satellite imagery shows Ivan moving due West. Did the NHC mention that?

I agree somewhat with an earlier post...the really powerful storms can sometimes steer themselves. I think this is particularly true if the motion is slow. This thing has my full attention.

Well good... then you'll be staying up all night to monitor? Call me at home if it looks like an emergency.

No, I think I'll see if I can get some sleep over the noise of that new bar they opened behind my Internet cafe. We'll see in the morning.

Models are all moving to the west, closer to Yucatan.
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GRADUAL CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE LAST DAY OR SO WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE HURRICANE MOVING ON A
TRACK NOT AS CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE THIS MAY BE GOOD NEWS
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...IT IS NOT SO FOR OTHER REGIONS OF THE EASTERN
GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN
FORCING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...DELAYING THE
EXPECTED NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD TURN. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWARD TURN
IS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK INCREASES
THE HURRICANE RISK FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION AND
DECREASES IT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN
SHIFTING GRADUALLY WESTWARD.

AS WAS THOUGHT POSSIBLE...IVAN HAS REGAINED CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 161 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND AN
EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 914 MB. THE DROP MEASURED 918 MB BUT IT
HAD 29 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 145 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO SKILLS IN PREDICTING CHANGES IN
INTENSITY WITH SUCH EXTREMELY INTENSE HURRICANES...SO IVAN IS KEPT
AT 145 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL IN CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.
NEVERTHERLESS... IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UNITES STATES AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 39
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004


AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 910 MB...26.87 INCHES. THIS IS THE
SIXTH LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.

my workin links
http://AmbergrisCaye.com/hurricane/links.html

Thanks Marty, good info.

I'm watching closely...with any luck you guys will be okay...at least FL looks like they'll be safe this time....I was there for Mitch....don't want see that again....

Can someone tell Tom Murphy that Grace sends her good luck wishes....Thanks.......(on AC)

You can see why official forecasts should be watched with a grain of pure paranoia.

Cayman just took a bad smashing. Rumors of some older spots in George Town "gone" from cell phone contact with sheltering locals. 155mph sustained in wide bands over island. Ivan had a wide hurricane core sending high winds over Cayman despite center missing to south by 30 miles. Surge in streets of several feet. People sheltering in hotels mostly safe.

Ivan has obviously undershot the trough and hasn't been picked up northward yet. I think he'll shoot the Yucatan Channel and come into the Gulf Of Mexico unscathed.

Good thing for Belize this south deviation didn't happen slightly further south. Good thing for us in south Florida it did...

Received a email from a friend in SP. The reef is extreamly rough with that loud constant roar, some beach erosion, high water. At low tide the water was over the pier and up to the 2nd seawall. And this is a miss so far ! Good luck to all on the island.

Recieved a partial email from my parents..may have gone to a more secure structure..just enought to concern us. How is the weather there? I know waves were coming over their sea-wall. Any reassurance from someone on the island would be appreciated. Thanks Lisa

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO....INCLUDING COZUMEL.

The sun is shining and we are getting larger waves then normal but so far everything is fine here in Sanpedro. We will probably get quite a bit of rain starting tonight.

I'm curous about the pier & seawall - where Ernie?

Just south of Royal Palms about 100 yards.

Ernie

thx

Jesse, we all know where Ivan is, give us the conditions in SP. Just what is going on there?

Ernie

had to haul the boats out today..all boats in back..too rough...waves up...we shall get some lousy weather coming out the back early mon am i think

Boats all gone to the back. Beaches covered in sea grass. Hot and still. Beer cold.

'sending prayers to all. Thanks for keeping us informed.

Jesse, good morning... it is 6am..in San Pedro..are the winds gusting, along with the waves. What does the lagoon side look like.??
Thanks
BP

Hi ya'll, wanted to know what it's like there!!! Got to Stuart, Fla, Tuesday. Lots of damage from Frances here, mostly boats, docks and trees down everywhere! 40% of this area still without power. Then told we're getting Ivan, luckily going to Gulf, lucky for poor Fla., not the Gulf, whew! Now, am a little worried about San Pedro! Please keep me informed!! Wave height? Wind speed? Damage to piers, etc...Thanks.

Hardly any wind, a light breeze from the North West is all. Pleasantly cool. Some biggish rollers coming in to the reef from the storm. Waves are still appearing on the beaches. This morning and probably tomorrow morning too there will be some beach cleaning to do and one or two piers suffered minor damage especially where they were already rotted or were built too low. Most boats are either to the back of the island or are anchored out away from the piers. Apart from that there is really nothing more to report.

Of course, this time of year one can't let one's guard down..... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/131300.shtml?

HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 220 MILES...350 KM. AT 715 PM EDT...SANDINO METEOROLOGICAL
STATION IN PINAR DEL RIO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 124 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 162 MPH

Hi Everyone! My husband and I are leaving for Belize (3 days in Jungle followed by 7 nights on AC) on the 23rd. After reading the weather reports, wanted to get the expert advice on what we can expect... are there additional storms expected after Ivan?

Nothing headed this way now. It's impossible to predict too far ahead but chances are that you'll have great weather. Come and enjoy!

Thank you!! We are looking forward to our first trip there and keeping our fingers crossed for good weather.

We are headed to SP Oct. 6th and I'm hoping all this crappy weather will be over. Saw on weather channel this morning that a new storm named Jeanne will probably turn into a hurricane and they said it would hit Puerto Rico. Can you keep us posted on this new one. I'd hate to have to cancel a trip we've planned for 6 months. We were there in 2001 and I'm so excited about going again.

Jesse>>>>>

so whats up with this big blurb to the east with the ccw twist going and sucking clouds from the pacific by Panama? I don't alarm easy but it looks creepy.
Any Thoughts?
Jim