AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 9/25 thru 10/1

September 25, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY'S FORECAST

The weather over the Northwest Caribbean, Yucatan and
Belize remains moist.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs: Cloudy skies will accompany early
morning and late afternoon showers and thundershowers.
Sunny breaks will occur. Winds will be east
northeasterly or variable at less than 10 Kts. Sea
state will be smooth to light chop.

The outlook is for partly cloudy skies, warm
temperatures and isolated showers through Tuesday.



Western and Central Caribbean:

DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN... AND THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
AREAS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONED ALONG 73W/74W S OF 19N MOVING
W 15 KT.

NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
COLOMBIA/ VENEZUELA BORDER FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
71W-75W.

Eastern Caribbean:

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W S OF 20N MOVING W 15
KT.

A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THERE MIGHT BE A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS THAT
THERE IS SURFACE CIRCULATION.

NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 62W-68W MOVING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE VENEZUELAN
ISLANDS AND MAINLAND COAST AND HEADING TOWARDS THE ABC
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 58W-63W.


TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT

TRADE WINDS HAVE ESSENTIALLY BROKEN DOWN OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MOST OF THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND
QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5-10 KT IN
THE E/CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT LOW SURFACE
PRESSURES MAY BE FORMING OVER OR NEAR THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA WED AND THU.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUE ...AND TO A PSN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO
THE SW GULF BY THURSDAY WHERE MODELS SUGGESTS IT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY.

September 26, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY'S FORECAST

The weather over the Northwest Caribbean, Yucatan and
Belize remains moist.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs: Partly cloudy skies will continue with
warm temperatures. Winds will be east southeasterly 5
to 15 Kts. Sea state will be smooth to light chop.

The outlook is for cloudy skies, warm temperatures and
widely scattered showers on Tuesday.



Western and Central Caribbean:

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT.

AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER CUBA NEAR 21N78W WITH AN
INDUCED TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. ANY
CONVECTION/SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES RATHER THAN THE WAVE ITSELF.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AREA
THROUGH TUE.

Eastern Caribbean:

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS S OF
16N TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS.

TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 78W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AS WELL AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT

THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 70W IS FORECAST TO
MOVE W ABOUT 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE W
CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU AND FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT

September 27, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY'S FORECAST

The weather over the Northwest Caribbean, Yucatan and
Belize remains moist.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs: Cloudy skies will gradually clear giving
sunny withh warm temperatures. Winds will be east to
southeast 5 to 15 Kts. Sea state will be light chop
to choppy.

The outlook is for partly cloudy skies, warm
temperatures and isolated showers on Wednesday.



Western and Central Caribbean:

A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED JUST OVER S FLORIDA
NEAR 26N81W WITH AN TROUGH EXTENDING N/S S OF 30N INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF AREA THROUGH TUE.

THE AREA IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N82W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO N OF
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W AND AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF
80W.

AN UPPER HIGH IS SW OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W AND COVERS A
MAJOR PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA E OF 65W WITH THE
GREATEST INTENSITY ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
74W/75W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVING ALONG AT
10-15 KT. BEHIND/EAST OF THE WAVE...WINDS HAVE PICKED
UP ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA WHICH WAS SHOWING A FEW
15-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN 65W-70W.

A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO INCREASING WINDS IS A
TROPICAL WAVE AND DEVELOPING LOW OVER NW CARIBBEAN BY
LATE WEEK WHICH COULD INCREASE PRES GRADIENT.

Eastern Caribbean:

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 20N
MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N74W HAS
DISSIPATED.

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 75.5W
FROM 13N-16N AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 77W FROM 12N-17N.

September 28, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY'S FORECAST

More active tropical weather development occurring
over the Northwest Caribbean, Yucatan and Belize. A
tropical wave and upper level support is responsible
for thunderstorms and squalls occurring locally
overnight and A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTER SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO BE WATCHED FOR
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:
Cloudy skies mixed with sunny periods. Widely
scattered showers and thundershowers will occur mainly
in the late evening and early morning hours. Winds
will be variable in occasional squalls or east to
northeast 5 to 15 Kts. Sea state will be generally
light chop but it will become rough in strong
thundershowers and occasional squalls.

SMALL CRAFT AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD OBSERVE
CAUTION WHILE OPERATING IN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
WATERS.

The outlook is for continuing cloudy and squally
weather and warm temperatures on Thursday and Friday.



TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 21N
WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING WNW
NEAR 12 KT. THIS AREA STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 78W-81W.

LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO BE
WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCURRR
AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY W-NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA THIS WEEKEND.

Western and Central Caribbean:

AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA
NEAR 22N82W AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 19N86W.
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HAITI NEAR 19N74W COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN W OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS ABUNDANT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE GREATEST INTENSITY S OF HAITI FROM 13N-20N
BETWEEN 73W-77W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 21N
WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING WNW
NEAR 12 KT.


Eastern Caribbean:

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
JUST ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 13N E OF 67W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 60W-68W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.

September 29, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY'S FORECAST

Moist air and slightly unstable conditions will
maintain cloudy skies and isolated showers and
thundershowers over Yucatan and Belize.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Cloudy skies mixed with sunny periods. Isolated
showers and thundershowers will occur mainly in the
late evening and early morning hours. Winds will be
variable or from the east to northeast 5 to 15 Kts.
Sea state will be generally light chop.

The outlook is for continuing cloudy weather and warm
temperatures on Friday.



TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT

THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG
81W IS NOW A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N81W MOVING WNW NEAR
10 KT. ORGANIZATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM
WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 77W-81W.

Western and Central Caribbean:

AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR
17N80W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS
IN THIS AREA. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER HAITI AND E CUBA N OF
18N BETWEEN 72W-77W.

THE LOW CENTER NEAR 16N81W AT 0000 UTC (6 P.M. LOCAL
TIME) HAS SHOWN SLOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
PAST 12-24 HOURS...WITH NEW SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
FORMING WELL N OF LOW BETWEEN JAMAICA...CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS ARE VERY SLOW TO
DEVELOP THE SYSTEM.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE...EXCEPT OVER S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY
APPROACH 20 KT.



Eastern Caribbean:

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N56W
SOUTHWARD TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 21N58W INTO THE
DEEP TROPICAL AND THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N61W. THE
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N65W ACROSS
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO 11N60W.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.

September 30, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY'S FORECAST

A broad area of low pressure and disturbed weather
conditions will maintain overcast skies and scattered
showers and thundershowers over the Northwest
Caribbean, Belize and The Yucatan Peninsula.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Skies will be mainly Cloudy to overcast accompanied by
scattered showers and thundershowers . Winds will be
westrly 5 to 15 Kts. but with occasional gusts above
25 kts in the heavier showers. Sea state will be
choppy to moderate.

Small craft and Marine interests should exercise
caution while operating in coastal waters and should
continue to monitor for information on the area of
disturbed weather in the Extreme Western Caribbean.

The outlook is for continuing cloudy to Overcast
conditions and scattered showers thru Saturday and
Sunday.



TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT

W CARIBBEAN 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N81.5W
DRIFTING W. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED BUT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20.5N BETWEEN
73.5W-83W INCLUDING JAMAICA.

Western and Central Caribbean:

CARIBBEAN FLOW IS GIVING S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE DRIFTING INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE
W CARIBBEAN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING E TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN

TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT OVER THE CARIBBEAN
W OF 70W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
1007 MB LOW AND GENERATING BROAD AREA SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16.5N BETWEEN
81.5W-87.5W INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREA OF
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS AND A SMALLER AREA FROM 12N-14.5N
BETWEEN 73W-76W.



Eastern Caribbean:

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS IN THE
LOW CLOUDS N OF PUERTO RICO. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADALOUPE TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA W OF TRINIDAD TO 64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
DOT THE NE CARIBBEAN.

Northern Caribbean:

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 78W AND SPREADING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS S AND IN THE
W ATLC NE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR
21N76W OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N66W.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

For what ever it is worth -- the projected path of this "potential"
hurricane is now to the gap -- and not to us here -- let's hope it stays that way

Also -- check here for more:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

odds are SLIM (none is prob more accurate), but let's hope there's no ironic 5 year anniversary events to contend with!!! On this date 5 years ago, I'm sure Marty was glued to the internet watching a pesky struggling tropical depression that all of a sudden decided to get its act together such that it earned the name Kieth!

October 1, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY'S FORECAST

low pressures and disturbed weather conditions still
favour overcast skies and scattered showers and
thundershowers over Belize as it slowly moves
northwest over the Yucatan Peninsula.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Skies will be Cloudy to overcast with occassional
showers and thundershowers. Winds will vary from
westerly through south easterly 5 to 15 Kts.. Sea
state will be light choppy.

The outlook is for continuing cloudy conditions and
isolated showers through Sunday and Monday.



TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT

North Western Caribbean:

THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTR IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W AND MOVING NW ABOUT 5 KT.
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING NEAR THE LOW CENTER
AND A BURST OF CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER. THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES
OVER YUCATAN.

Eastern Atlantic:

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, NUMGER NINETEEN, HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR 12.3N 2.9W...OR 660 MILES WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...AT 01/0300 UTC (9 PM LOCAL TIME) MOVING NW 2
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT.


North West Caribbean:

A WEAK UPPER LOW SITS JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N87W DRIFTING SLOWLY W AND HAS ALLOWED
CARIBBEAN MOISTURE OVER CUBA TOWARDS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

A 1006 MB LOW...THE SPECIAL FEATURE...IS LOCATED NEAR
19N85W CAUSING A BURST OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS STILL WITHIN A POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
AREA AND WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE STILL
LIKELY IN THE W CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.


Central Caribbean:

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W S OF 23N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. IT HAS NO CLEAR TSTM PATTERN BUT
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SPECKLED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 69W-76W.

Eastern Caribbean:

THE E CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES...E OF ABOUT
67W...ARE UNDER THE STABLE REGIME OF AN UPPER LOW NE
OF THE AREA AND ITS TRAILING TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
TO ISLA MARGARITA...SO SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. MEANWHILE MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE E CARIBBEAN.