WTNT35 KNHC 150246
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY GAINS MORE STRENGTH...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CARACAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS
WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF
THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS
WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO...
AND ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375
MILES... 600 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 690 MILES...1110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IN EMILY HAS BEEN FALLING DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. BASED ON THESE REPORTS...THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH
ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT35 KNHC 150847
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY CHURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND JAMAICA...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS. PORTIONS OF
THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS
WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...
AND ARUBA. PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...
620 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 580
MILES... 930 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT35 KNHC 151435
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

....EMILY A LITTLE WEAKER...STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST OR ABOUT 465
MILES...745 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OR VERY
NEAR JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
EMILY HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N... 70.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA