WTNT35 KNHC 111449
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1120 MILES...1800 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
ON TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...10.3 N... 44.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT35 KNHC 112038
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1030 MILES...1655 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED...BUT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.6 N... 46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT35 KNHC 120233
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...EMILY BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1000 MILES...1610 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 47.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT35 KNHC 120830
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST OR ABOUT 845
MILES...1360 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...11.4 N... 48.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT35 KNHC 121443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST.
LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT
575 MILES... 925 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT35 KNHC 121743
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY CONTINUES RAPIDLY WESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE
GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN
36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT
530 MILES... 850 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT35 KNHC 122359
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE
GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLAND OF TOBAGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES... 675 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY TOMORROW MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 53.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

This is an unusually low-tracking storm. Threat to Yucatan, but too early to say...

It certainly needs to be watched closely.

WTNT35 KNHC 131140
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...OUTER BANDS OF EMILY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO
CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES... 320 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 280 MILES... 450
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF EMILY VERY
SHORTLY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 57.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT35 KNHC 131514
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...CORRECTED OMISSION OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS.

...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS AND THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO
CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT
165 MILES... 270 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 225 MILES...
360 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 58.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF
MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

T.S. EMILY CURRENTLY IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS FORECAST
TO BECOME
A HURRICANE BY THU MORNING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE LATEST
ADVISORY KEEPS EMILY ON A SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE
EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. EMILY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT AND
SUN AND
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON. THE NWW3
BRINGS THE
SEAS TO OVER 20 FT OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF EMILY ON
FRI AND
CONTINUING UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND MON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AND
CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THIS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
SIMILAR
TRENDS.

WTNT35 KNHC 131910
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005

CORRECTED TO ADD TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD.

...EMILY NOT STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WARNINGS DOWNGRADED...

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 2 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...TOBAGO...
TRINIDAD...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST. LUCIA...AND
THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO
CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT EMILY WILL REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 59.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT35 KNHC 132032
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...STRONG TROPICAL STORM EMILY ABOUT TO REACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...
TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST.
LUCIA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES
WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO
CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES... 205 KM... SOUTH OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 220
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CLEARING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HOWEVER...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...11.4 N... 59.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT35 KNHC 132357
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...EMILY ARRIVES IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...CENTER PASSING JUST NORTH
OF DORAGO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...
TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST.
LUCIA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES
WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA WESTWARD
TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 60.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES... 145 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD AND ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CLEARING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...HOWEVER...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...11.5 N... 60.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT35 KNHC 141431
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NOW A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 560
MILES... 905 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT35 KNHC 141741
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...EMILY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NEARLY CATEGORY THREE...

...AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CUMANA EASTWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM PUNTA SALINAS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST OR ABOUT 490
MILES... 795 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW
NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A STRONG
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS DECREASING.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...12.9 N... 65.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT35 KNHC 142039
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...EMILY BECOMES A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
720 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH
...33 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE
OF THE SEASON. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT35 KNHC 150000
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER... AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO... INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO...
AND ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES...
670 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 115 MPH... 185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES... 185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 962 MB... 28.41 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES... AND 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 66.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT35 KNHC 150246
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY GAINS MORE STRENGTH...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CARACAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS
WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF
THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS
WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO...
AND ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375
MILES... 600 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 690 MILES...1110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IN EMILY HAS BEEN FALLING DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. BASED ON THESE REPORTS...THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH
ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT35 KNHC 150847
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY CHURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND JAMAICA...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS. PORTIONS OF
THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS
WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...
AND ARUBA. PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...
620 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 580
MILES... 930 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT35 KNHC 151435
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005

....EMILY A LITTLE WEAKER...STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST OR ABOUT 465
MILES...745 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OR VERY
NEAR JAMAICA ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
EMILY HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EMILY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N... 70.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA