A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WEAK 1011 MB LOW FORMING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N 88W. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE YUCATAN ARE MOVING FROM N TO S... SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH A BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER. PROXIMITY TO LAND MAY INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TODAY BUT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO COULD ALLOW FORMATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE E COAST OF BELIZE AND YUCATAN AND ALSO FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN.
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