Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
#207427 10/15/05 11:28 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 84,397
Marty Offline OP
OP Offline
Posted By: JeffMasters at 1:48 PM GMT on October 15, 2005
Updated: 1:54 PM GMT on October 15, 2005
The broad 1005 mb low pressure area centered just south west of the island of Jamaica has become better organized this morning. The areal coverage of the deep convection continues to increase. Some weak upper-level outflow exists on the west and north sides of the system, and a weak upper level anti-cyclone has developed on top. Wind shear is still decreasing, and is now about 5 knots over the storm. All signs point to development of a tropical depression by Sunday, and a tropical storm by Monday. One complicating factor may be the presence of Jamaica so close to where the center is trying to form. This may slow development by half a day or so at most, since Jamaica is a relatively small island. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system at 4 pm EDT today.

Global computer models forecast that the shear will continue to remain low the next several days over the western Caribbean, where the disturbance is expected to remain. If the system can remain in the western Caribbean for five days, the chances of it growing to hurricane strength are good. The latest GFDL model run even suggests that major hurricane status is possible.


[Linked Image]

Figure 1.
Early model tracks for the Jamaica disturbance.

Steering currents are expected to remain weak the next five days, and the computer models have a variety of solutions, so pick one:

GFS model: A weak tropical storm with a slow WSW motion, with landfall in Belize in seven days.

UKMET model: A hurricane with a slow WNW motion, winding up in the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula in seven days.

NOGAPS model: Same as GFS, a weak tropical storm with a slow WSW motion, and a landfall in Belize in seven days.

GFDL model: A hurricane that moves WSW and stays in the Western Caribbean the next seven days.

Canadian model: Slow WSW motion as a tropical storm, then sharp northward turn and intensification into a hurricane as it crosses Cuba and passes just offshore Miami through the Bahama Islands.

If this system does eventually affect the U.S., the most likely target would be the Florida Keys or west coast of Florida, as there are many troughs of low pressure whizzing by that would grab this system and steer it to the northeast once it gets far enough north.

#207428 10/16/05 08:15 AM
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 6,267
Offline
Yesterday's computer models were interesting (and crazy) all right. Today's models look nothing like yesterday's. Tomorrow who knows what they will say.
TD 24 is highly likely to become Hurricane Wilma.
Belize weather service has advised Belizeans to monitor the storm carefully.
NEMO did a stellar job out here when Emily threatened - I assume they are already on alert.

#207429 10/16/05 10:50 PM
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 11,062
Offline


_ _ _ _ _ _ _________________ _ _ _ _ _ _
But then what do I know, I am but a mere caveman

Link Copied to Clipboard
March
S M T W T F S
1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31
Cayo Espanto
Click for Cayo Espanto, and have your own private island
More Links
Click for exciting and adventurous tours of Belize with Katie Valk!
Who's Online Now
0 members (), 329 guests, and 0 robots.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Statistics
Forums44
Topics79,199
Posts500,011
Members20,460
Most Online7,413
Nov 7th, 2021



AmbergrisCaye.com CayeCaulker.org HELP! Visitor Center Goods & Services San Pedro Town
BelizeSearch.com Message Board Lodging Diving Fishing Things to Do History
BelizeNews.com Maps Phonebook Belize Business Directory
BelizeCards.com Picture of the Day

The opinions and views expressed on this board are the subjective opinions of Ambergris Caye Message Board members
and not of the Ambergris Caye Message Board its affiliates, or its employees.

Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.5