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October 16, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
Generally weak surface pressure gradients and an upper level trough over Belize and the Northwestern Caribbean will produce northerly winds and isolated thunderstorms.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Cloudy skies with few sunny spells. Isolated showers and thundershowers will occur late afternoon or early morning. Winds will be northerly at 5 to 15 kts. and the sea state will be slight to light chop.
The outlook is for continuing cloudy and showers weather on Monday.
RESIDENTS AND MARINE OPERATORS IN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 24.
Tropical Weather Development:
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS NEAR 17.0N 79.0W AT 16/0300 UTC(9 PM LOCAL TOME) OR 190 NM /345 KM SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 110 NM/205 KM SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS AS THE DEPRESSION DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS.
North West Caribbean:
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LIES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM BELIZE TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN CUBA WITH NORTHERLY AIRFLOW N OF THE AXIS BRINGING IN DRY AIR AS FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 76W AND 84W AT THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. Central Caribbean:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR HAS FORMED FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WAS NEAR JAMAICA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE DEPRESSION AND IS EXPANDING CIRRUS OUTFLOW EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
ONE BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING FROM 16N TO 21N AT THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.
Eastern Caribbean:
AN EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 67W. THE MAIN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N61W.
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
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SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
A BROAD UPPER HIGH AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS COVERING W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Mostly sunny or fair-weather and only a chance of isolated early morning showers. Winds will be north to northwest at 8 to 18 kts. and the sea state will be slight to choppy.
The outlook is for continuing fair and windy weather on Tuesday.
RESIDENTS AND MARINE OPERATORS IN JAMAICA, CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 24.
Tropical Weather Development:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 79.6W AT 17/0600 UTC OR 150 NM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MOVING W AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED TO THE S OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. NUMEROUS AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N79W TO 15N82W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF RAINBANDS TO THE E OF THE CENTER DOT THE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.
North West Caribbean:
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD UPPER HIGH AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DRY UPPER AIR IS ENCROACHING INTO T.D. TWENTY-FOUR FROM THE NW...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW.
Central Caribbean:
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO TRACK AND MAY ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES T.D. TWENTY-FOUR. WAVE IS BENEATH UPPER LEVEL S FLOW OF THE UPPER HIGH NEAR T.D. TWENTY-FOUR. BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER FOR THE ATLC BASIN IS THE DEVELOPING T.D. TWENTY-FOUR IN THE W CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST TO THE E OF THE DEPRESSION WITH RIDGING EXTENDING E TO JUST S OF PUERTO RICO.
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN AS AN INFLOW BAND ON THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LIES FROM HISPANIOLA WESTWARD TO OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA. RAINBANDS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD WITH THE DEPRESSION.
THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. TWENTY-FOUR EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NE TO 25N69W WITH THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 26N FROM 70W-79W INCLUDING MOST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS IS ALSO GIVING HISPANIOLA MORE HEAVY RAIN WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE PAST WEEK. Eastern Caribbean:
THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER S UPPER FLOW FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 70W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HIT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST TO E THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 15N60W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 18.5N58.5W.
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SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
A BROAD UPPER HIGH AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS COVERING W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Mostly sunny or fair-weather today and becoming cloudy to overcast early tomorrow morning. Winds will be north to northwest at 8 to 18 kts. with higher gusts near 25 kts. Occasional showers and a few squalls will develop early in the morning. The sea state will be choppy to moderate and rough during the higher gusts.
The outlook is for cloudy to overcast and windy weather on Thursday and Friday..
RESIDENTS AND MARINE OPERATORS IN JAMAICA, CUBA, BELIZE AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM WILMA AND HURRICANE ADVISORIES.
Tropical Weather Development:
TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 80.0W AT 18/0600 UTC (Midnight local time)...OR 225 NM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN...MOVING W AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 984 MB.
DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA IS TO THE SSE OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 15.5N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78.5W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM W/CENTRAL CUBA JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS PLACING SOME NW SHEAR OVER WILMA...AS WELL AS INFILTRATING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION.
North West Caribbean:
A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS NW OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WHICH STRETCHES FROM W/CENTRAL CUBA SW INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECTING WILMA WITH SOME NW SHEAR.
Central Caribbean:
THE CIRCULATION OF T.S. WILMA ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND BROAD E/SE FLOW FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER WILMA IS NOT WELL-DEFINED AT THE MOMENT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N77W NE PAST HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE CONVECTION LOCATED FROM JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA.
Eastern Caribbean:
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH S OUTFLOW FROM T.S. WILMA WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES WILMA.
THE WEATHER IS A LITTLE LESS CONVECTIVE E OF 70W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WESTWARD INCLUDING PUERTO RICO.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...HANGING AROUND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS WILMA BEGINS ITS TRACK NW THEN BY THU/FRI THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
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SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
A BROAD UPPER HIGH AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS COVERING W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Cloudy to overcast skies and occasional showers and rain. Winds will be north to northwest at 15 to 25 kts. With higher gusts near Occasional thundershowers and a few squalls. The sea state will be choppy to moderate and rough during the higher gusts.
The outlook is for cloudy to overcast and windy weather on Thursday and Friday..
RESIDENTS AND MARINE OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF DEVELOPING DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA AND TO FOLLOW HURRICANE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NEMO.
Tropical Weather Development:
HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 82.8W...OR 295 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO...AT 19/1200 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 882 MB WHICH IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
WILMA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. A PINHOLE EYE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 11.5N-20N BETWEEN 79W-85W AND FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 74W-79W. SPIRAL BANDS OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 11N TO OVER CUBA W OF 73W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
North West Caribbean:
WILMA CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NIGHT TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED COVERS THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA EXTENDS A RIDGE NE ACROSS W CUBA AND HAITI INTO THE W ATLC ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
Central Caribbean:
AS THE HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA SO DOES THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THESE ISLANDS.
Eastern Caribbean:
SUBSEQUENT E FLOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING ENABLING ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DOT THE AREA E OF 73W.
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October 20, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
HURRICANE WILMA'S TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW AFFECTING BELIZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 35 MPH AND DANGEROUS SEAS AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION ON THE ISLANDS.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Cloudy to overcast skies and occasional showers and rain. Winds will be northwest at 25 to 455 kts. Occasional thundershowers will accompany the arrival of occasional squall lines. The sea state will be rough.
The outlook is for cloudy to overcast and windy weather on Friday...
RESIDENTS AND MARINE OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA AND TO FOLLOW HURRICANE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NEMO AND THE LOCAL RADIO.
Tropical Weather Development:
HURRICANE WILMA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 85.0W...OR 170 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO...AT 20/0900 UTC (3 AM LOCAL TIME) MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 900 MB..
THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION LOOP OF WILMA REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CORE. WILMA REMAINS SERIOUS THREAT TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM IN S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE IN SPIRAL BAND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 16N81W- 20N82W-22N85W AND FROM 12N75W TO 19N78W INCLUDING ALL OF JAMAICA. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER ALL OF CUBA AND MOST OF HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. North West Caribbean:
THE BROAD OUTFLOW CANOPY OF WILMA SPREADS AWAY FROM THE STORM NE INTO THE W ATLC...SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN...AND SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS SPREADING NE AS WILMA CONTINUES ITS TREK TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE YUCATAN NE TO FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO WILMA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SHOULD HAVE A NICE DRY WEEKEND
Central Caribbean:
FARTHER E...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ABOUT 75W PRODUCING FAIR SKIES CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE REMAINS MASKED BY UPPER OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE WILMA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING TOWARD E PANAMA. Eastern Caribbean:
LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH MON.
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO ARE GETTING A BRIEF BREAK AS HURRICANE WILMA MOVES AWAY BEFORE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN.
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE W SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE E OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 56W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
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October 21, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
HURRICANE WILMA'S IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY OUT TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNELL AND WEATHER OVER BELIZE WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Cloudy to overcast skies and occasional showers and rain. Winds will be southwest at 15 to 25 kts during the morning and then slowly decrease to 5 to 15 kts from the south east by tomorrow morning... Occasional showery outbreaks will continue through this afternoon. The sea state will be rough at first then decrease to choppy to moderate by tomorrow morning.
The outlook is for partly cloudy windy weather on Saturday.
MARINE OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE DURING THE REST OF THE PRERIOD.
Tropical Weather Development:
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 86.3W OR ABOUT 44 NM/80 KM SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AT 21/1200 UTC MOVING NNW 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
THE OUTERMOST RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE WILMA HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF AND WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...AS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CUBAN RADAR. IN ADDITION...CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE STORM IS TRAPPED E OF A LINE FROM THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEWD TO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...BOUNDED TO THE W BY A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
WILMA COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE YESTERDAY AND THE NEW EYE GREW OVERNIGHT TO A DIAMETER OF 40 NM OR SO...BUT RECENTLY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IT SHRINKING AGAING TO ABOUT 30 NM WIDE. STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -82C HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN SEMICIRCLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT OUTFLOW TO THE N/NE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST TO THE S AND NON-EXISTENT TO THE W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE (THE RAINBANDS ARE NOT PENETRATING THAT FAR INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA). RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CIRCULAR EYE WITH HEAVY RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NE PART OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO...INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS CANCUN...COZUMEL...AND TULUM. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN IN THESE AREAS AS THE CORE OF WILMA APPROACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY. North West Caribbean:
WEST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE WILMA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING E OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 74W-80W. Central Caribbean:
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION. Eastern Caribbean:
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 55W-64W WHICH HAS ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS BARBADOS AND PARTS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN GRENADA AND MARTINIQUE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/ TSTMS ARE ALSO FORMING OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-68W. THE WINDS AT BARBADOS AND ST. LUCIA HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 28 KT AND 23 KT (WITH A GUST TO 34 KT AT ST. LUCIA) RESPECTIVELY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TOWARDS HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...AND SHOULD LINGER OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME OVER THE WEEKEND.
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October 22, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
HURRICANE WILMA HAS STALLED OVER THE NE TIP OF YUCATAN WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES OVER BELIZE.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Winds will be southerly at 15 to 25 kts at first then slowly decrease to 5 to 15 kts from the south east by late Sunday. Only isolated showers will develop during early morning. The sea state will be rough at first then decrease to choppy to moderate by Sunday afternoon.
The outlook is for partly cloudy and cooler weather on Monday.
MARINE OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY.
Tropical Weather Development:
THE WEATHER OF MOST INTEREST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA AND THE AREA OF LOW PRES S OF PUERTO RICO.
LOW PRESSURES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE BY SAT EVENING AND COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HURRICANE WILMA HAS MOVED JUST INLAND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS WILMA INLAND TODAY. WILMA IS THEN EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OFF THE COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WILMA TO EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE NE TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SUN/MON. THEN ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE ATLC WATERS LATE MON/TUE.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEW ORLEANS TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TX. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NW OF WILMA'S CIRCULATION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO REACH WELL INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY.
North West Caribbean:
HURRICANE WILMA HAS STALLED ALONG THE MAYAN RIVIERA JUST SOUTH OF CANCUN MEXICO BUT CONTINUES TO FLING SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION NWD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE CORE OF THE STORM BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTEND FROM 22N-27N E OF 87W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. Central Caribbean:
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED OVER E/CNTRL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. IT IS HELPING TO REINFORCE A BROAD EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ARUBA SWWD TO LAKE MARACAIBO AND INTO NRN COLOMBIA. IT IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA. Eastern Caribbean:
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE AMAZON BASIN IS BEING ADVECTED NWD BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS IS PARTLY THE SOURCE FOR THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO.
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