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#207430 - 10/16/05 02:09 PM CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 10/16- 10/22
SP Daily Offline
October 16, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

Generally weak surface pressure gradients and an upper
level trough over Belize and the Northwestern
Caribbean will produce northerly winds and isolated
thunderstorms.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Cloudy skies with few sunny spells. Isolated showers
and thundershowers will occur late afternoon or early
morning. Winds will be northerly at 5 to 15 kts. and
the sea state will be slight to light chop.

The outlook is for continuing cloudy and showers
weather on Monday.

RESIDENTS AND MARINE OPERATORS IN CUBA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NUMBER 24.


Tropical Weather Development:

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR WAS NEAR
17.0N 79.0W AT 16/0300 UTC(9 PM LOCAL TOME) OR 190 NM
/345 KM SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 110 NM/205
KM SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. THE DEPRESSION
WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.

HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS AS THE DEPRESSION
DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS.

North West Caribbean:

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W WITH MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LIES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM BELIZE TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN CUBA WITH
NORTHERLY AIRFLOW N OF THE AXIS BRINGING IN DRY AIR AS
FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 76W AND 84W AT THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA.

Central Caribbean:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR HAS FORMED FROM THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WAS NEAR JAMAICA
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE
DEPRESSION AND IS EXPANDING CIRRUS OUTFLOW EASTWARD
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

ONE BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING FROM 16N TO 21N AT THE
COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...WHILE ANOTHER AREA
OF SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.

Eastern Caribbean:

AN EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A PERSISTENT
TROUGH COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 67W. THE MAIN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACCOMPANYING THIS
TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA NEAR 19N61W.

ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT.

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#207431 - 10/17/05 02:50 PM Re: CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 10/16- 10/22
SP Daily Offline
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

A BROAD UPPER HIGH AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS COVERING W
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Mostly sunny or fair-weather and only a chance of
isolated early morning showers. Winds will be north to
northwest at 8 to 18 kts. and the sea state will be
slight to choppy.

The outlook is for continuing fair and windy weather
on Tuesday.

RESIDENTS AND MARINE OPERATORS IN JAMAICA, CUBA AND
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NUMBER 24.


Tropical Weather Development:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N
79.6W AT 17/0600 UTC OR 150 NM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MOVING W AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED TO THE S OF THE CENTER
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. NUMEROUS AREAS OF STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N79W TO
15N82W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF RAINBANDS TO THE E OF THE
CENTER DOT THE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

North West Caribbean:

THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BROAD UPPER HIGH AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING W CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DRY UPPER AIR IS
ENCROACHING INTO T.D. TWENTY-FOUR FROM THE NW...THUS
LIMITING CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW.

Central Caribbean:

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
TRACK AND MAY ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES
T.D. TWENTY-FOUR. WAVE IS BENEATH UPPER LEVEL S FLOW
OF THE UPPER HIGH NEAR T.D. TWENTY-FOUR.

BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER FOR THE ATLC BASIN IS THE
DEVELOPING T.D. TWENTY-FOUR IN THE W CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER HIGH IS JUST TO THE E OF THE DEPRESSION WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING E TO JUST S OF PUERTO RICO.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN AS AN INFLOW BAND
ON THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LIES FROM HISPANIOLA
WESTWARD TO OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA. RAINBANDS WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD WITH THE DEPRESSION.

THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. TWENTY-FOUR
EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NE TO
25N69W WITH THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF
26N FROM 70W-79W INCLUDING MOST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
THIS IS ALSO GIVING HISPANIOLA MORE HEAVY RAIN WHICH
HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE PAST WEEK.

Eastern Caribbean:

THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER S UPPER FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E
OF 70W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND ACCOMPANYING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HIT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST TO E THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 19N61W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S TO
15N60W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW IS
GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 18.5N58.5W.

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#207432 - 10/18/05 02:17 PM Re: CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 10/16- 10/22
SP Daily Offline
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

A BROAD UPPER HIGH AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS COVERING W
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS
AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Mostly sunny or fair-weather today and becoming cloudy
to overcast early tomorrow morning. Winds will be
north to northwest at 8 to 18 kts. with higher gusts
near 25 kts. Occasional showers and a few squalls will
develop early in the morning. The sea state will be
choppy to moderate and rough during the higher gusts.

The outlook is for cloudy to overcast and windy
weather on Thursday and Friday..

RESIDENTS AND MARINE OPERATORS IN JAMAICA, CUBA,
BELIZE AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF DEVELOPING
TROPICAL STORM WILMA AND HURRICANE ADVISORIES.


Tropical Weather Development:

TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 80.0W AT
18/0600 UTC (Midnight local time)...OR 225 NM SSE OF
GRAND CAYMAN...MOVING W AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED WAS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 984 MB.

DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA IS TO THE SSE
OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A
45 NM RADIUS OF 15.5N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78.5W AND THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA. AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM
W/CENTRAL CUBA JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS PLACING SOME NW SHEAR OVER
WILMA...AS WELL AS INFILTRATING SOME DRIER AIR INTO
THE CIRCULATION.

North West Caribbean:

A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
EXTENDS NW OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WHICH
STRETCHES FROM W/CENTRAL CUBA SW INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY AFFECTING WILMA WITH SOME NW SHEAR.

Central Caribbean:

THE CIRCULATION OF T.S. WILMA ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE W
HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND BROAD E/SE FLOW FEEDING
INTO THE CIRCULATION COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER WILMA IS NOT WELL-DEFINED AT THE
MOMENT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N77W NE PAST
HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE
CONVECTION LOCATED FROM JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA.


Eastern Caribbean:

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 15N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH S OUTFLOW FROM T.S.
WILMA WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES WILMA.

THE WEATHER IS A LITTLE LESS CONVECTIVE E OF 70W WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WESTWARD INCLUDING PUERTO RICO.

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...HANGING AROUND OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN AS WILMA BEGINS ITS TRACK NW THEN BY
THU/FRI THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

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#207433 - 10/19/05 04:08 PM Re: CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 10/16- 10/22
SP Daily Offline
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

A BROAD UPPER HIGH AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS COVERING W
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS
AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Cloudy to overcast skies and occasional showers and
rain. Winds will be north to northwest at 15 to 25
kts. With higher gusts near Occasional thundershowers
and a few squalls. The sea state will be choppy to
moderate and rough during the higher gusts.

The outlook is for cloudy to overcast and windy
weather on Thursday and Friday..

RESIDENTS AND MARINE OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF DEVELOPING DANGEROUS
HURRICANE WILMA AND TO FOLLOW HURRICANE ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NEMO.


Tropical Weather Development:

HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 82.8W...OR 295
NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO...AT 19/1200 UTC MOVING WNW AT
7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 150 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 185 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
882 MB WHICH IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN
THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

WILMA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS AREAS OF
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OCCURING WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. A PINHOLE EYE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 11.5N-20N BETWEEN
79W-85W AND FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 74W-79W. SPIRAL BANDS
OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF
11N TO OVER CUBA W OF 73W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

North West Caribbean:

WILMA CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NIGHT TO A
POWERFUL CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
COVERS THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH
WILMA EXTENDS A RIDGE NE ACROSS W CUBA AND HAITI INTO
THE W ATLC ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COVERING
THE E CARIBBEAN WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.

Central Caribbean:

AS THE HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER E
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA SO DOES THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THESE ISLANDS.


Eastern Caribbean:

SUBSEQUENT E FLOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING ENABLING ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DOT THE AREA E OF 73W.

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#207434 - 10/20/05 04:09 PM Re: CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 10/16- 10/22
SP Daily Offline
October 20, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

HURRICANE WILMA’S TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW
AFFECTING BELIZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 35 MPH AND DANGEROUS SEAS
AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION ON THE ISLANDS.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Cloudy to overcast skies and occasional showers and
rain. Winds will be northwest at 25 to 455 kts.
Occasional thundershowers will accompany the arrival
of occasional squall lines. The sea state will be
rough.

The outlook is for cloudy to overcast and windy
weather on Friday...

RESIDENTS AND MARINE OPERATORS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA AND TO FOLLOW HURRICANE
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NEMO
AND THE LOCAL RADIO.


Tropical Weather Development:

HURRICANE WILMA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 85.0W...OR 170 NM SE OF
COZUMEL MEXICO...AT 20/0900 UTC (3 AM LOCAL TIME)
MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS
130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 900 MB..

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION LOOP OF WILMA REMAINS
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE
CORE. WILMA REMAINS SERIOUS THREAT TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE
AND 120 NM IN S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE IN SPIRAL BAND WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE 16N81W- 20N82W-22N85W AND FROM 12N75W TO
19N78W INCLUDING ALL OF JAMAICA. HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER ALL OF CUBA AND MOST OF
HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

North West Caribbean:


THE BROAD OUTFLOW CANOPY OF WILMA SPREADS AWAY FROM
THE STORM NE INTO THE W ATLC...SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE W
CARIBBEAN...AND SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM CUBA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
SPREADING NE AS WILMA CONTINUES ITS TREK TOWARDS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THE YUCATAN NE TO FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
WILMA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SHOULD HAVE A
NICE DRY WEEKEND



Central Caribbean:

FARTHER E...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ABOUT 75W PRODUCING FAIR SKIES
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF
16N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE REMAINS MASKED BY
UPPER OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE WILMA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA MOVING TOWARD E PANAMA.

Eastern Caribbean:

LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH MON.

OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO ARE GETTING A
BRIEF BREAK AS HURRICANE WILMA MOVES AWAY BEFORE THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN.


E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 22N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE W SIDE OF A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS DISPLACING THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE E OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 56W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

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#207435 - 10/21/05 04:18 PM Re: CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 10/16- 10/22
SP Daily Offline
October 21, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

HURRICANE WILMA’S IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY OUT TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN CHANNELL AND WEATHER OVER BELIZE WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Cloudy to overcast skies and occasional showers and
rain. Winds will be southwest at 15 to 25 kts during
the morning and then slowly decrease to 5 to 15 kts
from the south east by tomorrow morning...
Occasional showery outbreaks will continue through
this afternoon. The sea state will be rough at first
then decrease to choppy to moderate by tomorrow
morning.

The outlook is for partly cloudy windy weather on
Saturday.

MARINE OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
IN ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE DURING THE REST OF THE PRERIOD.


Tropical Weather Development:

DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED
NEAR 20.1N 86.3W OR ABOUT 44 NM/80 KM SOUTHEAST OF
COZUMEL MEXICO AT 21/1200 UTC MOVING NNW 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.

THE OUTERMOST RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE WILMA HAVE BEGUN
TO SPREAD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF
AND WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...AS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CUBAN RADAR. IN ADDITION...CIRRUS OUTFLOW
FROM THE STORM IS TRAPPED E OF A LINE FROM THE N COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEWD TO THE BIG BEND OF
FLORIDA...BOUNDED TO THE W BY A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR
AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

WILMA COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE YESTERDAY
AND THE NEW EYE GREW OVERNIGHT TO A DIAMETER OF 40 NM
OR SO...BUT RECENTLY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IT
SHRINKING AGAING TO ABOUT 30 NM WIDE. STRONG
CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -82C HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN SEMICIRCLE AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT OUTFLOW TO THE N/NE
OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST TO THE S AND
NON-EXISTENT TO THE W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM W
SEMICIRCLE (THE RAINBANDS ARE NOT PENETRATING THAT FAR
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA). RADAR IMAGERY FROM
CANCUN SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CIRCULAR EYE WITH HEAVY
RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE
NE PART OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA
ROO...INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS CANCUN...COZUMEL...AND
TULUM. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN IN THESE AREAS AS
THE CORE OF WILMA APPROACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY.
North West Caribbean:


WEST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W S OF 15N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE WILMA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING E OF THE AXIS FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 74W-80W.

Central Caribbean:

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W S OF 19N
MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND NOT ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

Eastern Caribbean:

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG
61W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 55W-64W WHICH HAS ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS
BARBADOS AND PARTS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN
GRENADA AND MARTINIQUE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/
TSTMS ARE ALSO FORMING OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-68W. THE WINDS AT BARBADOS
AND ST. LUCIA HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 28 KT AND 23 KT
(WITH A GUST TO 34 KT AT ST. LUCIA) RESPECTIVELY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TOWARDS HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AND SHOULD LINGER OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING A
THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME
OVER THE WEEKEND.

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#207436 - 10/22/05 02:22 PM Re: CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 10/16- 10/22
SP Daily Offline
October 22, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

HURRICANE WILMA HAS STALLED OVER THE NE TIP OF YUCATAN
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES
OVER BELIZE.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Winds will be
southerly at 15 to 25 kts at first then slowly
decrease to 5 to 15 kts from the south east by late
Sunday. Only isolated showers will develop during
early morning. The sea state will be rough at first
then decrease to choppy to moderate by Sunday
afternoon.

The outlook is for partly cloudy and cooler weather on
Monday.

MARINE OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
IN ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY.


Tropical Weather Development:

THE WEATHER OF MOST INTEREST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WILMA AND THE AREA OF LOW
PRES S OF PUERTO RICO.

LOW PRESSURES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW
TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE BY SAT EVENING AND COULD
POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

HURRICANE WILMA HAS MOVED JUST INLAND INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE LATEST FORECAST KEEPS WILMA INLAND
TODAY. WILMA IS THEN EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OFF THE
COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TODAY OR THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WILMA TO
EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE NE TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATE SUN/MON. THEN ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE ATLC
WATERS LATE MON/TUE.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEW ORLEANS TO N
OF BROWNSVILLE TX. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NW
OF WILMA'S CIRCULATION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
AND MOVE RAPIDLY TO REACH WELL INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY
TUESDAY.

North West Caribbean:

HURRICANE WILMA HAS STALLED ALONG THE MAYAN RIVIERA
JUST SOUTH OF CANCUN MEXICO BUT CONTINUES TO FLING
SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION NWD THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE CORE OF THE STORM BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTEND FROM 22N-27N E OF
87W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

Central Caribbean:

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED
OVER E/CNTRL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. IT IS HELPING TO
REINFORCE A BROAD EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN.

AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ARUBA SWWD
TO LAKE MARACAIBO AND INTO NRN COLOMBIA. IT IS
TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS NRN
COLOMBIA.

Eastern Caribbean:

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE AMAZON BASIN IS BEING
ADVECTED NWD BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS PARTLY THE SOURCE FOR THE
CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO.

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