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#207445 - 10/17/05 07:07 PM Prognosis on where this thing is heading
Marty Offline
From Jeff Masters on his blog:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/jeffmasters/show.html

Steering currents are expected to remain weak the next two days, and some erratic motion is possible. All of the forecast models predict a generally west or west-northwest motion over the next two days. However, this morning's southerly motion at 5 mph is something none of the forecast models have called for. This gives me some concern about this storm severely impacting Honduras and its neighboring Central American countries, particularly Guatemala, which is still reeling from the impact of Hurricane Stan. As Wilma grows in size, a continued southward motion may allow it to start pulling in a deep layer of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, which would trigger heavy rains over the regions of Guatemala and El Salvador hardest hit by Stan. These rains would probably be in the 3 - 5 inch range--nowhere near the devastating 15 - 25 inches seen from Stan, but still high enough to trigger new mudslides on the destabilized slopes of the steep mountainsides.

The computer models have been having huge difficulties with a weak trough of low pressure over the U.S. that may be able to pull Wilma northwards. Last night's 00Z (8pm) models runs of the five models we plot on our computer model tracking chart all failed to properly initialize this trough, calling for it to be weaker than is really is. This resulted in a set of model tracks with a much further west track for Wilma, bringing her into Belize or the Yucatan later in the week. This morning's 06Z (2am EDT) runs of the GFDL and GFS model did properly initialize this trough, and these new model runs now indicate a sharp turn to the northwest and north across western Cuba. Given that the models are not currently handling the southerly motion of the storm, I would be hesitant to believe this forecast yet. All the computer models were calling for a similar northward track for Hurricane Mitch in October 1998, and it ended up wandering south and getting stuck off of the coast of Honduras. However, a second much stronger low pressure system currrently bringing rain to southern California is expected to move east this week and push a trough far enough south to pull the storm northwards later in the week,

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#207446 - 10/17/05 07:13 PM Re: Prognosis on where this thing is heading
Marty Offline
from a friend in Xaibe


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Just checked that Url out again -- things are already going "strange"

Each tracking projection is shifting more to the "west" --

no longer going to mash through Western Cuba -- now aimed straight for the
middle of the channel -- and coming out through with 95 knot winds -- with
an upwards leading intensification curve.

Also -- NOLA needs get worried -- finger is pointing right at them -- "now" --

but what does finger pointing mean at this early time???

Shades of Keith -- Iris and Mitch!!

And if so -- just expect that tracking to keep shifting to the west --
Cancun -- Tulum -- Chetumal -- then we.

This is the exact same tracking picture we saw for Iris -- well -- let me
go check in the archives to be sure.

OK -- Oct 7 2001

I'm looking at a picture of Iris -- about the same intensity as soon to be
born William -- sitting in the exact same position.

But -- one difference -- it was tracked then by Navy to hit Cancun -- not
the channel -- and the tracking just kept bending south -- until it rammed
into Placencia.

mind you -- early tracking had it passing to the east of Jamaica and going
to Cancun -- yet they kept that tracking to Cancun even after it passed
well to the west of Jamaica

After it got further past Jamaica -- heading ever more due west -- they
changed the tracking to hitting corozal -- and from that point on -- Orange
Walk -- Belize City -- and more South -- as it got really closer!!

Also -- Iris was a traditional storm -- that is it came from way down the
channel -- all the way up. Wilma is birthing right in front of us.

Wish I had more than slow pokey dial up -- I could send you a large graphic
file containing all.

Hmm -- just looking over my files on isador -- remember she??

Sept 19 2002 Izzy was in the same place as birthing Wilma is now -- Izzy
went up through the Gap as predicted by historical tracking computer
simulation -- then out in the gulf -- turned backwards due to El Norde and
hit Merida a terrific blow.

What is interesting to observe -- here we are -- Oct 16 -- and the sea
surface temps are orders warmer -- hotter -- than they were Sept 19 2002!!
(just comparing the two)

No global warming -- eh??

Now -- let's go look at my Archives on Keith

Keith was "birthing" in the exact same spot as Wilma is now Sept 27 2002 --
it was not a made storm coming up the tubes from the wind wards.

It did a lazy dance to the west of jamaica just like wilma is starting now.

It moves so slowly West -- was half way between Jamaica and Belize City By
Sept 29 -- but still not a hurricane.

All the time it was predicted to head North -- and it even started to -- a
little.

Sept 30 it was much closer to Belize -- even with San Pedro -- and an eye
forming -- winds rapidly increasing. Ignition was achieved!

Oct 1 2000 Keith was in the same place -- not so far off-shore SP -- and
turned into a monster!! About 150 miles due west of SP!!

Still -- no one in Belize believed it would hit "here" -- as American TV
was all showing tracking based on "historical" models showing Keith heading
straight north.

One has to understand Belizeans -- they have but one God -- the boob-tube
-- and God was telling them Keith would go North.

At that same time I am on record for losing my cool totally telling
Belizeans -- a big El Norde is there -- don't be fool -- get out -- Keith
is going to hit us!!

Everyone humored the fool in Xaibe Village -- nobody paid mind -- nobody
evacuated.

all day Oct 1st Keith defied the great Boob Tube God and started moving
rapidly due west straight to SP!!

Only at the very last minute did Belizeans realize their God has betrayed
them!!

And then it was just to late to go anywhere.

However -- during the last part of Oct 1 -- Keith did a big poofer --
bigger than we saw with Katrina hitting NOLA -- but still -- it was a hard
hit!!

Belizeans really lucked out on that one -- cause if Keith had not poofed a bit--
Ambergis Caye would have been hit even harder than it way!!

As it was -- they survived well -- but Keith got real pokey --

And for two days sat moving over SP and Caye Caulker shaking everyone's
trees --

I have the complete graphic series of this event -- by satellite pictures
on my hard drive still!!

The poof factor was incredible -- it went from monster to class one just
before striking --

now here we are -- same kind of storm -- same area -- same El Norde -- and
Belizeans saying -- well -- no problem -- boob tube says 5% chance only.

And our GOB not even suggesting possible evac plans.

Folks -- THIS TIME do not get to comfortable to fast -- eh??

Changes are in process -- and those changes are pointing in our direction
-- not against our direction.

Tomorrow this time -- we will know much better -- for good -- or for worse.

The day after -- we will know more --

Sure -- Wilma can miss us -- at this time -- know one knows.

But give my nerves a break -- stop being so damned complacent about this.

Peel eye big time -- prepare your personal belongings of most value for
possible evacuation!!

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#207447 - 10/17/05 07:15 PM Re: Prognosis on where this thing is heading
Marty Offline
El Norde is here.

For the record -- big winds from the north at my little farm in consejo --
and very chilly --

This is confirmed at this Satellite shot found here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

No hurricane has ever penetrated through a strong el norde.

If you look at that sat picture -- the "line" runs South West to North east
-- a diagonal -- with the southern point being in Placencia -- shades of
Iris -- not Keith!!

Even Navy forecasts are based on historical hurricane tracking data --

Note -- for some strange reason -- in those historical models -- there be
no mitch -- no keith -- no iris -- or any other of many -- that an El Norde
turned to wrong direction.

What may happen -- as this present el norde is huge -- is it will totally
"poof" Wilma -- as a still birth.

If not -- really -- watch out --

Actually -- the possibilities are also strong that anything that Wilma
develops into will head South of Belize -- all together. (Mitch)

Of course -- if this El Norde goes poof real fast -- then traditional
hurricane paths will be effective -- and Wilma would move North.

Worse would be a slackening -- so Wilma forms -- then goes strong -- up the
channel mouth -- and El Norde comes back -- for a second push -- and we get
slammed here in Belize. (Keith)

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#207448 - 10/17/05 07:17 PM Re: Prognosis on where this thing is heading
Marty Offline
waters are 87 F to be exact in Corozal

-- no hurricane cam run through an El Norde -- they can only "surf"
the edges.

I did some quick checking -- in 2002 -- as example the seas here never got
over 83 F the entire summer -- never mind mid fall!!

Going by physic -- and energy transfer being a function of Delta T -- we
could see a hurricane develop quickly --

We also could see it go poof -- dead!!

Delta T is difference in temperature between two extremes -- in this case
-- extra super hot sea surface temps -- and a big cold upper atmosphere El
Norde.

The more Delta T you have -- the more energy can be developed in transfers.

In real terms we can only go at this day by day --

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#207449 - 10/17/05 09:33 PM Re: Prognosis on where this thing is heading
Amanda Syme Offline
Huh, water is normally around 85 - 87 degrees this time of year.

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#207450 - 10/17/05 11:12 PM Re: Prognosis on where this thing is heading
Marty Offline
WHoops i meant to edit that a bit. it came from a friend and had some good and some questionable. i pasted the original and not my edited. thanks.

he's in corozal, should have said that. so different water temps up there probably

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#207451 - 10/17/05 11:18 PM Re: Prognosis on where this thing is heading
Marty Offline


edited to core message

TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST ARRIVED IN THE CENTER OF
WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB...
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS
MINIMUM PRESSURE OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY...
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE UNUSUALLY LOW...FLATTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...MOST MODELS
MAKING WILMA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.

WILMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD...CERTAINLY
THERE HAS BEEN MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN ANTICIPATED.. HOWEVER...THE CORE
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC THIS AFTERNOON...AND I AM
EXPECTING WILMA TO SOON BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN BETTER
ACCORD WITH THE GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LARGE LOW OFF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MOVES EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW WILMA TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. FOR
REASONS UNKNOWN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BUT IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY SPECIFIC AREAS AT
GREATEST RISK.

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#207452 - 10/18/05 03:37 AM Re: Prognosis on where this thing is heading
Marty Offline
The cold front over Florida has dissipated. The atmosphere
will remain mostly dry over the area for the next few days
but moisture will gradually increase from the se later in
the week as T.S. Wilma approaches from the Caribbean...
first upping rain chances in the Florida Straits by tomorrow
and over S Florida by Wed.

and

The remnants of cold front are a surface trough from central
Cuba near 22n79w across the central Bahamas to 27n73w
producing widely scattered showers within 90 nm of the trough.

So Yes -- Wilma "can" now go North ward -- hopefully -- far off our coasts!!

But!!!

"All indications are that as this system moves
slowly in a general W to NW direction over the next couple of
days.. it will turn into a powerful hurricane."

Not to much west -- before turning NW -- eh?? (lets hope!!)

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#207453 - 10/18/05 03:44 AM Re: Prognosis on where this thing is heading
SP Daily Offline

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#207454 - 10/19/05 03:25 AM Re: Prognosis on where this thing is heading
Marty Offline
jeff masters blog tonight
==========
Wilma's rapid intensification phase continues, with another 9 mb drop in
the past 1 1/2 hours, for a total of 16 mb in the past three hours. The
7:09 EDT hurricane hunter report found a pressure of 954 mb, and maximum
flight level winds at 5000 feet of 101 knots (116 mph). Wilma is a solid
Category 2 hurricane, and probably on her way to Category 3 status by
early Wednesday morning. The Hurricane Hunters don't fly in Category 2
and stronger hurricanes at 5000 feet altitude very often; I wonder if
the next eye penetration will be done at 10,000 feet.

The eye diameter is now a very tiny 8 nm (9 miles), up one mile since
last report, and very small for a hurricane. It will be interesting to
see how long Wilma can maintain an eye that small; I expect the eywall
will collapse by morning and an eyewall replacement cycle will begin,
with Wilma leveling out at Category 3 strength. The eye is now very
prominent on satellite imagery, and spiral banding and upper-level
outflow continue to improve and cover a larger area

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