000
AXNT20 KNHC 201045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE WILMA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 85.0W...OR 170 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO...AT
20/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 900 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION LOOP OF WILMA REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CORE. WILMA REMAINS SERIOUS
THREAT TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 120
NM IN S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ELSEWHERE IN SPIRAL BAND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 16N81W-
20N82W-22N85W AND FROM 12N75W TO 19N78W INCLUDING ALL OF
JAMAICA. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER ALL OF CUBA AND MOST
OF HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE HAS A LOW AMPLITUDE SIGNATURE WITH THE AXIS FOLLOWING A
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
25W-33W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION WHERE STRONG E LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONVERGES WITH WEAKER
WINDS OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 52W-57W WITH A SMALL AREA OF
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 45/60 NM RADIUS OF 11.5N55W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE W SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH IS DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE E OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 56W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 16N MOVING
W 10 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE REMAINS MASKED BY UPPER OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE WILMA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING TOWARD E PANAMA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 9N24W 6N41W 9N52W 12N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 37W-41W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WHICH IS DECEIVINGLY
COVERING UP THE APPROACHING HURRICANE THAT LOOMS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING WAY TO HURRICANE WILMA IN
THE SE AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE W GULF NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER TO NEAR 25N91W IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND CONTINUES
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT OVER
THE SE GULF WHERE CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM WILMA ARE SPREADING S OF
27N E OF 90W. AS SUCH...THE WEATHER REMAINS MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST N OF CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER MOST RAINBANDS OF
WILMA. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA N THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS SPREADING NE AS
WILMA CONTINUES ITS TREK TOWARDS THE GULF. THE WORST CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE YUCATAN NE TO FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DUE TO WILMA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SHOULD HAVE A NICE
DRY WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DISCUSSION ON WILMA. THE BROAD OUTFLOW
CANOPY OF WILMA SPREADS AWAY FROM THE STORM NE INTO THE W
ATLC...SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN...AND SW ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. FARTHER E...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ABOUT 75W PRODUCING FAIR SKIES EXCEPT OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO ARE GETTING A BRIEF BREAK AS WILMA MOVES AWAY BEFORE THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN.

WEST ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 32N72W TO 27N77W WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO 50 KT EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA
NEAR 25N84W E TO 27N71W THEN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 90 KT NE
TO BEYOND 32N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BENEATH THE JET FROM
A COLD FRONT NEAR 32N62W TO 26N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 350/400 NM S OF THIS BOUNDARY.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH LIES JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 59W FROM 10N-20N AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN. LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
SUBTROPICS NEAR 28N40W AND IS SUPPORTING BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WITH A 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 32N35W. THE WEAK LOW
THAT WAS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 31N43W TO 25N45W AND STILL LACKS ANY SHOWERS. UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA INTO THE E ATLC
NEAR 21N16W TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W AND SHEAR
AXIS CONTINUES NW TO 23N48W. WIDESPREAD SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC WITHIN 250/300 NM OF LINE FROM
THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 17N16W 11N38W TO 23N54W.

$$
WALLACE

Hurricane Wilma continues across the western Caribbean towards Mexico as a extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane capable of massive destruction. Wilma is currently undergoing a collapse of her inner eyewall, which will cause a short weakening trend that may last the remainder of the day. The inner eyewall of eight miles diameter is collapsing, and a new eyewall of 40 miles diameter is forming. This will reduce Wilma's peak winds to perhaps 135 mph today, at the low end of Category 4 strength. We'll have to wait until the next hurricane hunter mission arrives around 4 pm today to verify if this is the case.

As Wilma's eye reforms at a much larger size, the hurricane should begin to intensify again, and a return to Category 5 strength by Friday afternoon is a possibility. The larger eye will result in a much larger area being exposed to the extreme winds of the eyewall. If Wilma makes landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula, a stretch of coast perhaps 50 miles long will experience extreme damage.
Where will Wilma go?
There is still a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for Wilma. NHC has not adjusted the official forecast much the past few days, which is wise when the computer models are having difficulty. A trough of low pressure moving across the central U.S. should turn Wilma northwest today towards Cozumel Island, and then due north by tomorrow. However, once Wilma reaches the vicinity of Cancun and Cozumel, the storm is expected to slow to a crawl or stall for 12 - 48 hours. This will result in the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula receiving a horrific pounding, particularly if the eye comes ashore. This weekend is a very bad weekend to be a tourist in Cancun.
Jeff Masters

nail biter. close enuff

from up north...

one of our staff just called from watching stuff down at Ruby's...

locks of docks getting pummeled...

waves are REALLY impressive at the reef... wow.

WTNT34 KNHC 201749
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...WILMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES... 255 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...7 KM/HR. A
MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...18.6 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

that is the northeast outflow, but Wilma has a South West Out flow as
well, which will hit us, if at all, only after it has passed the gap.

just heard they are evacuating villages across the border from Belize in Guatemala.

Fantastic Eye shot graphic along with this article:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html


The RECON found that WILMA eye is now 40NM across, and MAX winds are steady
at 145KTS in the north quadrant, or about 150MPH at the surface. Just below
CAT 5 intensity. The pressure is still up at 918mb. (See below)

The 18Z models have again shown a wider spread in their track evolution,
just as they did yesterday at the 18Z run -- but they all have tended to
migrate their respective tracks over the Yucatan and once there, are
showing a very slow movement. This will simultaneously devastate the
Cancun/Cozumel area with prolonged severe winds, torrential rains, and a
storm surge that could effectively do away with most everything on Cozumel
Island but reduce the threat of a Major hurricane striking Florida once it
does arrive oin the SW coast.

Overall, the odds are increasing that Wilma will arrive in Florida even
later than originally thought, and it would then also be weaker since as
time goes by, the massive TROF that is going to pick Wilma and drive her
across Florida, will also be producing strong wind shears across the storm,
and that will greatly inhibit any re-intensification of Wilma once it does
re-emerge over the warm waters near the Yucatan Channel.

Wilma's impact on Mexico
Wilma's impact on Mexico is likely to be catastrophic. A 50-mile wide stretch of coast will receive Category 4 to 5 sustained winds of over 150 mph, causing incredible damage. As Wilma sits in place for two days, the long duration of high winds will cause far more damage than a quickly moving storm would. The long duration extreme winds will probably cause some of the worst wind damage ever seen in a hurricane. The storm surge will not be as much as a problem, because deep water just offshore will prevent a huge storm surge from piling up. Still, the expected storm surge of up to 11 feet will cause widespread damage to coastal structures.In adddition, rainfall amounts of 15 - 25 will cause serious flooding. Wilma is likely to be Mexico's worst weather disaster in history.