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#207498 - 10/19/05 09:27 PM Where will Wilma go?
SP Daily Offline
There is now a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for Wilma. A major shift in the model guidance occurred with the just completed 12Z (8 am) runs. Three of the top models--the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models--now show that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pull Wilma sharply northwards and then northeast across Florida is progressing slower than expected, and will not dig as far south. If this forecast verifies, it would be very bad news for Mexico. Wilma may not pass east of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel as originally thought, and may instead make a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel or Cancun Island on Thursday night or Friday morning, probably as a Category 4 hurricane.

However, this would be very good news for Florida. Any encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula would cause a serious disruption of the hurricane, and make it unlikely that Wilma could affect Florida as a major hurricane. A hit on southwest Florida as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane would be most likely, and the arrival of the hurricane would be delayed until Sunday. It is quite possible that Wilma would not affect Florida as a hurricane at all; the GFDL model forecasts that Wilma will spend three days over Mexico and emerge off the coast as a tropical storm and pass south of Cuba. So, if I lived in Florida and was thinking about evacuating today, I would wait another day and see what the forecast tomorrow brings. Keep in mind, though, that the NOGAPS model, which is one of the top four models for tracking hurricanes, is still showing that Wilma will pass through the Yucatan Channel and a make landfall in southwest Florida as a major hurricane. The Canadian model is showing this as well.

I'll have another update tonight, as conditions warrant.

Here's an email I received from wunderphotographer cleo85 , who is in the Yucatan:

"Here is the Paamul [Yucatan Peninsula] update. After a very cloudy morning we did have some blue sky around 11:00am CDT. Now at 2:00pm CDT the Sky is almost overcast with picturesque clouds. There are a few light showers. We have a light breeze from north with winds what feel more and more warmer. The morning [5am CDT] showed 76 Fahrenheit now we have 88. Paamul is boarding up and will evacuate tomorrow. There is a confusion were to go since some of the newest computer models showing landfall on the Yucatan with a turn around and going back to the Caribbean. I was told the mood in the city of Playa del Carmen changed from almost ignorance two days ago to panic right now. There is no gasoline or diesel anywhere between Cancun and Tulum. Groceries seams to be tight. Batteries are out. There is price poaching going on. The Newspapers do their best to bring the panic up."

Jeff Masters

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#207499 - 10/19/05 10:17 PM Re: Where will Wilma go?
SP Daily Offline
WTNT34 KNHC 192046
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO
CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...
460 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 892 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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#207500 - 10/19/05 10:35 PM Re: Where will Wilma go?
SP Daily Offline
CHECK BOLD AREAS

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 18

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 19, 2005


agreement among the track guidance models...which had been very good
over the past couple of days...has completely collapsed today.
The
06z runs of the GFS...GFDL...and NOGAPS models accelerated Wilma
rapidly toward New England under the influence of a large low
pressure system in the Great Lakes region. All three of these
models have backed off of this solution...with the GFDL showing an
extreme change...with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi
from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba.
There is almost as much spread in the 5-day positions of the 12z
GFS ensemble members...which range from the Yucatan to well east of
the Delmarva Peninsula. What this illustrates is the extreme
sensitivity of Wilma's future track to its interaction with the
Great Lakes low. Over the past couple of days...Wilma has been
moving slightly to the left or south of the model guidance...and
the left-most of the guidance solutions are now showing Wilma
delaying or missing the connection with the low. I have slowed the
official forecast just a little bit at this time...but if Wilma
continues to move more to the left than expected...substantial
changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line.
Needless to say...confidence in the forecast track...especially the
timing...has decreased considerably.


The latest pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 892
mb...with peak 700 mb winds of 152 kt. The initial intensity is
lowered to 140 kt. Aircraft reports...as well as microwave and
conventional satellite imagery...indicate that the inner
5-mile-wide eye of Wilma is weakening within two outer eyewalls...
one 10 miles wide and another about 45 miles across. In the short
term...this means that the peak winds should decrease as the wind
field expands...but there should be ample time for Wilma to
reintensity before it approaches the Yucatan. With an increasing
possibility that there will be a considerable interaction with the
Yucatan
...I have lowered the intensity forecast slightly in the
Gulf of Mexico.


Forecaster Franklin

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#207501 - 10/19/05 10:42 PM Re: Where will Wilma go?
Marty Online   happy


That dotted line is the present actual course
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif

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#207502 - 10/19/05 10:44 PM Re: Where will Wilma go?
Marty Online   happy
LOVEfm

WILMA TURNS DEADLY, MOVES CLOSER TO BELIZE


Hurricane Wilma turned into the most intense Atlantic storm ever recorded today. Wilma is a Category Five storm with hundred and seventy-five mile-per-hour winds and heavy rains. The storm has already been blamed for killing at least twelve people in the Caribbean. Wilma's central pressure has dropped to eight hundred and eighty-two millibars, the lowest minimum pressure ever measured in a hurricane in the Atlantic basin. The strongest storm on record before before today was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, whose central pressure measured eight hundred and eighty-eighty millibars. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. To get the latest on Wilma, Love News spoke a short while ago with Chief Meteorologist Carlos Fuller.

Carlos Fuller:



At midday the center of Hurricane Wilma was near 17.5 degrees north latitude and 83.5 degrees west longitude. That position is about three hundred and ten miles due east of Belize City and two hundred and ninety-five miles east of San Pedro, Ambergris Caye. Wilma is weakening slightly, maximum sustained winds have decreased to one hundred and sixty-five miles per hour. However, it is still an intense hurricane of category 5. Hurricane force winds extend outwards fifty miles from the center and tropical storm winds extend outwards a hundred and sixty miles from the center. Wilma is moving towards the west, northwest at seven miles per hour; however, as it is doing that it is wobbling around a small center and hence not moving as rapidly as you would expect. Wilma continues to move as we are expecting and we are expecting an even more turn towards the northwest within the next twenty-four hours.

Marian Ali:



This wobbly movement as you were mentioning, was this projected?

Carlos Fuller:



Yes, this is on track and it is what we are expecting it to do.

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#207503 - 10/19/05 10:57 PM Re: Where will Wilma go?
Marty Online   happy
3 p.m. Hurricane Wilma, Belize Time

They Eye of Wilma has a definite wobble pattern
roughly a 25 mile rotational zig zag.

At this hour, the wobble has carried the eye north
about 12 miles roughly even with Long Caye, north of
St. Georges Caye on that latitude. The Westward
movement averaged out, continues to be about ten mph.
It is somewhere in the vicinity of Swan Island.

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#207504 - 10/20/05 12:19 AM Re: Where will Wilma go?
J9rancher Offline
I think the breakdown of the projected path models does not bode well. What would two days of 160 mph winds do to San Pedro? I grew up in South Florida and rode out many hurricanes but this one could be very,very serious. I hope people do have evacuation in mind if it does not turn north very soon. There was a lot of denial in New Orleans, I was there too long.

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#207505 - 10/20/05 01:03 AM Re: Where will Wilma go?
sunfish Offline
We already had two days of 150 mph winds with Keith....so we have an idea of what it would do thanks....

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#207506 - 10/20/05 03:08 AM Re: Where will Wilma go?
Marty Online   happy
from up north....
"Here is the Paamul [Yucatan Peninsula] update. After a very cloudy morning
we did have some blue sky around 11:00am CDT. Now at 2:00pm CDT the Sky is
almost overcast with picturesque clouds. There are a few light showers. We
have a light breeze from north with winds what feel more and more warmer.
The morning [5am CDT] showed 76 Fahrenheit now we have 88. Paamul is
boarding up and will evacuate tomorrow. There is a confusion were to go
since some of the newest computer models showing landfall on the Yucatan
with a turn around and going back to the Caribbean. I was told the mood in
the city of Playa del Carmen changed from almost ignorance two days ago to
panic right now. There is no gasoline or diesel anywhere between Cancun and
Tulum. Groceries seams to be tight. Batteries are out. There is price
poaching going on. The Newspapers do their best to bring the panic up."

Top
#207507 - 10/20/05 03:58 AM Re: Where will Wilma go?
SP Daily Offline
WTNT34 KNHC 200235
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...COULD
RE-INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT
235 MILES... 380 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD
REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

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