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#207580 - 10/21/05 08:57 PM cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
we'll put cancun and cozumel information in this thread

6+ hours in NE quad. 140-160mph still creeping along @ 3mph. they will be dealing with wilma for awhile

Hurricane "Wilma"
HURACÁN “WILMA”

Special Advisory 44

21 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 / 19:00 h

Situation Actual
The EYE OF THE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANW "WILMA" IS SEEN WITH A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST.

ALERT ZONE:
THE ZONE OF ALERT HAS BEEN EXPANDED FROM CHETUMAL TO SAN FELIPE YUCATAN

DANGER IDEX:
SEVERE
In formation of the hurricane at 19:00 hr local time or 2300 gmt

EYE LOCATION:
Coordinates 20.7 Latitud North; 87.0 Longitud west using satelite image

Closest Distance

The Eye of hurricane Wilma is still oscillating over the island of Cozumel, never the less over the last hour Wilma has shown a tendency toward the north northwest instead of a steady northwest pattern

Wilma still has 220 kph sustained winds with gusts to 270 kph making her still a very dangerous category 4 hurricane.

Ubicación del núcleo o muralla

The western semicircle contiues pounding the coasts of Quintana Roo as well as the western state of Yucatan.

The Eye of Wilma has diminished to 46 kilometers wide but the storm size has increased to 800 kilometeres across.

There has been no change in the estimations of damages since the last report so I won't translate that but, there is a change in the seas as well as expected rainfall.


20 to 22 foot seas can be expected in affected areas and rainfall has been adjusted to up to 24 inches.

Kevin

Someone posted or commented in the command center that Wilma may strike Cancun as a category 1 or 2 hurricane, that information is incorrect at this time and immature a the very least. If Wilma comes onland and hits Cancun from Land and not from the sea as is expected we can expect weakening. If not she could even still strike as a category 5. Remember that what you are seeing now in Cancun is not the worst of the storm, sometime in the early morning the Storm will be over Cancun and then there are many more hours of the storm to come.

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#207581 - 10/21/05 09:01 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
FROM CANCUN:
From: "Kevin Alexander Murcko"
Oct 2005 20:34:38 -0600
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

We are still here....

I have been getting tons of email asking me if I know the current shelter situation in Cancun, Cozumel, Tulum, etc. As of this point 99% of Cancun and the entire Riveria Maya for that reason is without power. That gives you an idea of why you haven't seen any live TV coverage since early in the afternoon.

The Mexican government did a great job in evacuating thousands of tourists in a small span of 10 to 12 hours. For tourists the evacuations were mandatory. Though the shelters may be uncomfortable, they are safe. I wouldn't worry to much if you have friends or relatives here, they may not be able to communicate for the next few days, but they are safe.

The winds are now EXTREMELY powerful, the noise is loud, the building is shaking, and the storm seems to be very angry.

This building is built to code, and is probably one of the safest in the hotel zone, so we are not to worried, but small family homes must be in shambles.

I will try and keep these updates coming as long as I can. Photos are not even worth it at this point as there is no visibility.

More to come...
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpg70V06ZlYuF.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgOI9gT976mQ.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgsBfSASS7gZ.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgPLrRQBzggw.jpg

EARLIER:

Fri, 21 Oct 2005 18:23:17 -0600
It is getting very hard to see anything, but the noises tell the story. Crashing glass, flying pieces of wood, hard splashes of rain, it is like a natural symphony of disaster.

Security from our building knocked on the door to see if we had seen a man and two children, they are lost at this point somewhere in the building. The glass sliders have shattered on more than 10 apartments.

My roof on the balcony facing the ocean has collapsed, and the winds have know started to gust at VERY dangerous levels.

I may only be able to take photos from the Lagoon side from now on depending on the storms movements.

These photos are impressive....
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgK8VWM0h6KE.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgq0RVXtZXhK.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgsv9Qy1AVBr.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgzZWI542BCg.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgQR0VVN82i1.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpge48n0GstzJ.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpglTVA1WTxdT.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgbzTtYF9K1s.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpg7SW8JIvv2U.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgYssArItWPN.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgQPWYYqG8QW.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgpS8KGNnXeE.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgvnuoSbU1Dd.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpg5pUuC3sWyR.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgri3lhlpVH4.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgoF27oMr9Mr.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpg16Rs5z5DpW.jpg

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#207582 - 10/21/05 09:01 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
Hurricane Wilma batters Mexico's Caribbean resorts

REUTERS

By Greg Brosnan

PLAYA DEL CARMEN, Mexico (Reuters) - Hurricane Wilma slammed into Mexico's Caribbean beach resorts on Friday with screaming winds that knocked over houses, upturned trees and trapped thousands of tourists in cramped shelters.

Metal sheets flew off the roofs of homes and spun dangerously like frisbees down the street in Playa del Carmen where the town hall lay broken, with windows blown out and furniture tossed onto office floors.

Five flimsy houses collapsed but their residents were among the tens of thousands who had already fled to shelters.

"When the boards blew off our window we decided to look outside and -- Oh my God," said Gloria Winkles, a tourist from Texas sheltering in a small hotel in from the coast and looking out at raging waters that half submerged a blue jeep.

"When we get tornadoes in Texas they come and go in 20 minutes. But this seems to be going on for ever," she said.

Powerful waves swallowed up white sand beaches and flooded low-lying areas, and gusts of over 140 mph (225 kph) bent palm trees double as Wilma -- a slow-moving and dangerously wide Category 4 hurricane -- hung over the area.

"It is well, ugly. We are very worried," said Antonio Garcia, 20, who was left behind to look after the steakhouse where he works in Playa del Carmen.

European backpackers who had spend Thursday night in good spirits as the hurricane first hit, were more somber as they settled down under candlelight for a second night of howling wind rattling their hotel's doors and windows.

In Cancun, a haven of luxury hotels perched on a long strip of sand, tourists evacuated to a business hotel away from the shore were told to stay in bathrooms, well away from windows.

"I'm going to make my bed in the bathroom. That's where they said I should go," said airport worker Ruben Guzman.

YUCATAN NAILED

Forecasters warned of catastrophic damage as the eye of the storm moved in from the Caribbean, over the Yucatan peninsula.

"The Yucatan is really getting nailed on this," said Max Mayfield, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center. "It will continue to pound that region for at least 24 hours."

All along Mexico's "Maya Riviera," thousands of stranded backpackers huddled nervously in dank, sweaty gymnasiums and schools as the flimsy wooden beach cabins where many had been staying took a battering.

At a gymnasium in Cancun, 1,600 people lay on mattresses eating canned food and sweating, many stripped down to bathing suits or underwear. Some worried whether the walls would hold up, while an optimistic local entrepreneur sold T-shirts with the hopeful logo: "I Survived Hurricane Wilma."

"I wish it would get a move on. It's frustrating," said British software salesman Rob Stevens. "We've come a long way and now we are sitting here in a hot, damp, leaking building."

Mexican emergency officials said more than 50,000 people were evacuated and about 17,000 were put in schools, gymnasiums and hotel conference rooms further inland.

The storm was expected to dump 10 to 20 inches (25 to 50 cm) of rain across the Yucatan western Cuba. Some areas could get up to 40 inches, U.S. forecasters said.

CUBA REELING

Mudslides caused by rains from Wilma killed 10 people in Haiti earlier this week.

Cuba was also reeling as rains drenched the west of the island and unleashed tornadoes that destroyed tobacco-curing sheds and homes. One person was badly injured by a sheet of zinc ripped off a roof.

"It made a terrifying noise, like a jet plane," said Felix Leon, in the town of San Juan y Martinez.

Cuba evacuated 368,000 people from low-lying areas as it braced for coastal storm surges and floods.

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#207583 - 10/21/05 11:30 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
After talking to several people here in Cancun via the net I have some new information.

It seems the worst of the storm will be here from 3 to 5AM local time when we can expect to see waves up to 8 meters high hitting the shoreline. Several hotels have been reported to be severally damaged, and the Lagoon is now meeting the ocean in various parts of the hotel zone.

I have been asked to record the sounds from inside the apartment, and I am trying to do that now. I will see if I can post something soon.

Thanks once again to everyone for your emails, thoughts, prayers, etc., they are very welcomed.

More to come....


Kevin Alexander Murcko"
Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 23:39:25 -0600
Cancun

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#207584 - 10/21/05 11:33 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
cancun: predicting at least 19 hours of pounding. people recommended staying in bathrooms. its not going to settle for many more hours. fierce conditions. much power out. generators and emergency power only. hunkered down.

habana: calmweather right now, but evacs underway. civil defense people pulling people from poor quality houses that might collapse. to the west very blustery. officials went door to door putting people in trucks and taking them into govt schools or structures. half million evacd from western end. heavy rain the main potential problem. 10-40 inches possible

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#207585 - 10/21/05 11:35 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
from hurricane hunter: eye 40 miles across winds strong, 170mph for them. turbulence not too high, one bad hit. storm 'had its act together' climb/drop 1000 feet or more in seconds in turbulence. wilma very powerful in winds, not as spread out, compact compared to some this year. winds not extend out as far, maybe 50 miles.

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#207586 - 10/21/05 11:44 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
From another Cancun forum, about 2 hours ago:

We have some very troubling information coming from our team in Cancun. Police and military are reporting the following:

The Boulevard Kukulcan where all of the hotels are located is no longer visible. The Caribbean Sea has crossed over and met the Lagoon and the waters are rising. All hotels in the hotel zone are flooded and taking water.

The Hyatt Hotel (not sure whether it is Regency or Cancun Caribe) has suffered "extensive structural damage". If you remember earlier images in the thread there were some photos from Televisa of the Hyatt Hotel taken from The Mall Forum by the Sea.

The Hurricane has provoked tornados in the region as well as in Cuba where 4 tornados caused some destruction there.

80% of Cancun is flooded with 3 to nearly 5 feet of water.

The Mayor of Cancun and the Committee for Hurricanes made a tactical decision about 2 hours ago to evacuate some of the areas as well as some of the shelters that are in danger of flooding. The governor of Quintana Roo said in a press release just an hour ago that Cancun and the Riviera Maya has received unprecidented damage and the worst is yet to come.

We do not know what areas yet or whether they are locals or tourists.

Again the downtown area is flooded as well and Gaby is reporting that our friends from Televisa are trapped in a hotel downtown and are awaiting rescue from military staff.

There has still only been one reported death in Cancun and the 9 injured in Playa Del Carmen so far.

Susana Lopez is reporting that they are not able to leave the hotel where they are in downtown called the Handel Hotel because of high water and currents passing the hotel.

Military Troops have arrived from Veracruz and Tabasco with Boats and equipment prepared to move in and evacuate or rescue after the storm has died down.

State Police reported just a short while ago that the area of the Hilton Cancun and the Marriott is "out of control". We don't know what that means as communication in Cancun is minimal.

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#207587 - 10/21/05 11:45 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
Update from Playa Del Carmen 9pm:

This is information that we are receiving via 3rd party because we don't have communications with Coral nor Veronica in Playa Del Carmen but here is what we have.

Currently the Eye of the hurricane is still passing over Playa Del Carmen and the Northeast of Cozumel and there is a calm. Not a complete Calm but emergency personnel are on the street evaluating damage and looking for anyone that may need assistance.

The worst is yet to come... National Weather Service in Mexico just issued a bulletin that states the following.

Within the next hours Cozumel, Playa Del Carmen, and parts of the Riviera Maya will be struck with the worst of the storm. 12 hours more of a pounding is expected in the Cozumel and Playa Del Carmen area with an expected 36 hours more of storms.

Wilma continues to move only 7 kph which is just over 4 mph.

Playa Del Carmen has sustained extensive flooding, trees, signs, poles, radio and telephone towers down. Streets like Constituyentes and Juarez are Flooded and not passable. The highway is Flooded and has debris blocking the highway.

A family of 7 were injured when their Propane Gas tank exploded, two children suffered burns over 85% of their body and an adult suffered burns over 65% of his body. The other 4 were burned but over less than 40% of the body. All were transported during the hurricane to Cancun for treatment.

2 Others were injured from flying glass in the afternoon and their injuries were severe enought to be transported as well to Cancun for treatment.

2 babies were born in different shelters one boy and one girl. Medical staff is taking care of them at the shelter.

Again, Playa Del Carmen is in a calm as is Cozumel that is expected to end in about an hour or 2.
.........
"36 hours more for Cozumel and Playa Del Carmen and the worst hasn't come yet. The back end will hit then the rest of the 400 kilometers of the storm which will take til late Sunday afternoon to pass.

Governor is saying that this is going to register as the worst disaster in Mexico's history with damage and records set.

Some Details:

So Far 55 centimeters of rain has fallen on Isla Mujeres since 2AM (a Record)
Stan dumped 36 centimeters and killed 1,500 people in Mexico this month.
Paulina in 1997 Paulina dumped 44 centimeters.

Wilma is 800 kilometers wide
Katrina was 400 kilometers

Some bad news just in, sorry if I posted it already but I was trying to confirm the information. It is confirmed...

The caribbean sea crossed the beaches, into the hotels and has met with the lagoon. The road no longer exists as it is now just one big ocean. Worst yet between 3 am and 5 am the water is expected to rise to 30 feet or 3 stories in the hotel zone causing obviously unmentionable damages to property there. Again, that is a direct quote from the information passed at the 11PM briefing.

Also, doesn't seem we are getting a break right now. The evacuation of the shelter we talked about is now confirmed that the 2,500 evacuated were tourists. Evacuation was because the ceiling tiles were falling.

All of the shelters, homes, businesses, are taking in water because of the pounding rain hitting the buildings.

Winds currently in Cancun are at 260 kph and Wilma continues to move at 7 kph.

We are still translating and will let you know if there is anything else new."

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#207588 - 10/21/05 11:47 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
Playa Del Carmen has sustained extensive flooding, trees, signs, poles, radio and telephone towers down. Streets like Constituyentes and Juarez are Flooded and not passable. The highway is Flooded and has debris blocking the highway.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My sister managed to call me this evening (9pm CDT - what's that in Playa?) on a cell phone she borrowed. In a school in Playa, possibly called "colloquia inglais"? Their classrm is wet but windows are not blown in yet, as they are in other classrms. They have bread and crackers, no bathrms at this point. She indicated patience is waning among the 40 or so crammed in their small classrm, and some people "may take matters into their own hands." But she assured me that they are safe, and they are ok. Heavy rains persist, heavy winds. They have been told their hotel (Secrets Capri) is assumed to have sustained a great deal of damage, and she is not sure if they will be able to return to it. They have been told they will most likely remain at the school for some time yet, perhaps through or past Sunday. Situation is dire, she said, but they are still safe as of this evening.

Please continue to share any news from the Playa area - How bad is the flooding there? We are still quite concerned about what happens once the storm relents... My sister kept saying "No one will ever understand what we have gone through. No one will ever believe it. It's living hell."

Praise God they are still safe! God bless all those in the Yukatan, all your families and friends -- Keep praying!

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#207589 - 10/21/05 11:50 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
All evacuees will be taken close by not far because really conditions are horrific right now there. Almost no communication and Televisa lost a satelite truck in the storm or it was at least damaged to the point where their crew is reporting via cellular phones.

I was trying to backtrace the information with Gaby and with that number of people in one location we narrowed it down to logically one shelter which has capacity of 2,400. That was the Holiday Inn Downtown which is now the Radison Hacienda Hotel.

Gaby is trying to confirm and get some sleep, I don't blame her.

They will hunker down for the battering they are going to get in the next 6 hours since they and nobody else will be able to be on the street.

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#207590 - 10/21/05 11:50 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
When we talk about the Hotel Zone in Cancun we are talking about the 28 kilometer stretch from downtown to basically Parque Nizuc. This is where we were informed and have confirmed that information to be correct.

Now that is a projection based on I guess information from various agencies like the National and Local Weather Service, Civil Defense, and Military information. I don't imagine that they took that off the top of their head.

Also, Gaby told me that the Governor of Quintana Roo also included that in his briefing at 10 PM to the press corps in Chetumal.

Also the President is advancing more Military assistance as well as medical and emergency staff from other parts of Mexico immediately and I know that someone asked about Valladolid? That is currently the staging area for Military and Red Cross Staff. Food and Water is there 35,000 dispensas and there are 15,000 more on the way.

Moon Palace is not in Cancun proper, it is on the highway south of Cancun between the Airport and Puerto Morelos but closer to Cancun than Puerto Morelos.

Right now the Eye of the Hurricane is over Puerto Morelos or beginning to pass over Puerto Morelos. Still Cozumel is in Calm as is Playa Del Carmen. That should end in the next hour or so.

ipdate=
Sat, 22 Oct 2005 02:15:15

The large glass sliders facing the beach are whistling as the pressure lowers. I fear they may shatter.

The hurricane shutters have kept up well till now, but the high pitched squealing now echoing from the glass doors is scary.

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#207591 - 10/22/05 12:09 AM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
1 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA OVER PLAYA DEL
CARMEN ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...RELENTESSLY POUNDING
CANCUN AND COZUMEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
PROBABLY DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WILMA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE.

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#207592 - 10/22/05 05:14 AM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
list of hotels and where they evacd in cancun
http://www.proteccioncivil-qroo.gob.mx/Varios/bj.htm#TUR%CDSTICA

or here in english
http://www.cancuntravelonline.com/news/shelters.php

COZUMEL FRI EVENING
The eye of the storm passed over Cozumel, but they only received about 5 minutes of calm, instead of the six to seven hours that had been predicted. It' s hard to imagine that these people have been going through this for almost 24 hours now with at least 12 hours left to go before the hurricane finally gets caught up in westerly winds and moves toward Florida.

The hurricane has stalled and has barely moved since about 4pm. Although many of the television satellite images are showing the eye inland from Cancun, our calculations using latitude and longitude readings from National Hurricane Center flights combined with the latitude and longitude readings we have to make our maps, show that the eye of the hurricane is located in shallow waters just in front of Mayan Palace resort (www.mayanpalace.com). By the time that you read this it will be on the beach, or located on top of the hotel. The hurricane is currently only moving at 3 mph.

Back to Adrian. We discussed the potential condition of the island. He's pretty sure that the east side of the island will be gone. We are worried that not only will the buildings be damaged, but that the land will actually be gouged out. The road along the eastern shore had just been rebuilt and is sure to be gone. Adrian's biggest concern was as the hurricane passed. The winds changed traveling from north to south, pushing waves into the northwest shore hotels like Melia Cozumel (www.meliacozumel.solmelia.com) and El Cozumeleno (www.elcozumeleno.com). As the hurricane moved farther across the channel the winds changed again and began traveling from west to east, bringing waves to the entire western side of the island. We heard reports of cars floating near the seawall as the waves crashed over onto avenue Melgar that runs along the oceanfront in downtown.

When you talk to people, you can hear the frustration in their voices. They are ready for this to be over with. I have actually had very little luck getting through to people. Tony's (www.scubatony.com) cell service has been down since about noon, and Adrian's service works only sporadically (probably due to high usage). They feel a little reasurred knowing what the hurricane is doing even though it isn't positive news.

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#207593 - 10/22/05 05:37 AM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
4 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...CALM OF THE EYE STILL FELT IN PLAYA DEL CARMEN...WILMA REALLY
CLOBBERING NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST ABOUT 25 MILES...45 KM SOUTHWEST OF CANCUN.

WILMA IS STATIONARY BUT A GRADUAL NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERELY
POUNDING PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALL
DAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...20.9 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...935 MB.

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#207594 - 10/22/05 07:20 AM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
jesse Administrator Offline
WTNT34 KNHC 221200
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...RELENTLESS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN...
...EYE LOCATED JUST INLAND BETWEEN CANCUN AND COZUMEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER
TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CANCUN
AND ABOUT 415 MILES... 665 KM... SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD... AND A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEVERELY POUND PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALL DAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 120 MPH... 195 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY
WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...21.0 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

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#207595 - 10/22/05 03:03 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
6am Sat
Hurricane "Wilma" a Dangerous Category "3" Hurricane remains stalled over the area northwest of Puerto Morelos and west southwest of Cancun. The Hurricane is still not moving.

Isla Mujeres has reported an unprecidented 156 cm of rain (translates to roughly 5.2 feet of rain in the last 24 hours. 3 times the most rainfall on record from a Hurricane.

The Dangerous Bands of Convection that we were talking about yesterday to pass over Cozumel and Playa Del Carmen are Stationary there since hours and are dumping massive amounts of rain and pounding the area with 200 to 240 kph winds.

Currently there are no steering winds to push Wilma and a cold front coming down seems to have stopped her forward motion all together.

Seas have reached or are at 27 feet in the area of Isla Mujeres, Cancun, and the Riviera Maya.

==========

9am Sat

I just got through to my Ex-Wife in Cancun who is in our house downtown hunkered down with another gal from Ultra Femme in Cancun riding out the storm. She is trying to save battery so the conversation was brief. The noise in the background made my heart sink. It is a horrific sound and she said please just tell me how much more of this.

When I told her that the storm stalled and there was going to be at the least another 24 hours she just started to cry. They cannot sleep, water is coming in through the windows, doors, and even through the walls. She said they cannot see anything right now but the street is flooded nearly to the door. She thinks that they lost one of the water tanks on the roof as there is one that she says looks like ours floating in front of the house.

Again, the sound is terrible, I have been through several hurricanes but ususally I was out on the street working and taking shelter in open buildings nothing closed and boarded up.

Just finishing translation of a short briefing issued by Governor of Quintana Roo about Cozumel.

COZUMEL Q.ROO

"The first point of impact in Quintana Roo and for that matter Mexico was the Island Of Cozumel located off the coast of Quintana Roo near the resort destination of Playa Del Carmen. "Wilma" came across Cozumel as a Category 4 Hurricane causing massive devestation according to preliminary information I am receiving"

"The Civil Protection from Quintana Roo is reporting that the winds took down and caused severe damage to houses and businesses including those that had protection and re-inforcement against Hurricanes."

Additionally Signs, posts, electrical poles were blown away and some vehicles were overturned and swept away as well.

The Principal streets and avenues are flooded with waters of 4 to 5 feet and there are dozens of boats with damage. There was also a that washed almost a mile of highway into the ocean on the "backend of the Island"

As of right now officials in Cozumel have not reported any serious injuries nor deaths.

the governor for the region was just on CNN by phone, and he said that they still have some phone service, even on cozumel. He reported only 2 deaths so far, and that were 2 of the family of 7 who got burned in the explosion in PlayaCar. I guess he wasn't aware of the lady who got electrocuted.
=============

2pm Sat
Hotel Cozumel reports winds still too strong to go outside but begining to drop in speed. Building has sustained glass damage but no structual damage. Have food and water for 14 days. All guests still in hotel's shelters and doing well.

We have just heard that the road from tulum to akmual and on to puerto is clear . puerto is not too bad the golf course is flooded chalcal seems to have had less damage that might have been expected

Just received a telephone call from my good friend in Cozumel. 1:45pm est. Amazing she still had telephone service. Her family is safe but exhausted and very upset. She said there has been no let up since 9pm Thurs and the wind and rain have been relentless. She wanted to know when it was all going to end. She indicated this storm was much worse than Gilbert in 88. She is only getting weather updates by calling the states. It broke my heart to have to tell her they had several more hours before it finally starts to settle down. She will try to call later and I will try to get some specifics concerning damage reports.

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#207596 - 10/22/05 06:25 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
Sat, 22 Oct 2005 18:21

We were without power since very early this morning, when the generator was turned off, in order to save gas. It just came back on, so here I am online.

I have snapped a few photos of the devastation, but I have heard reports that other parts of the hotel zone are in much worse shape, with some hotels having "sand dunes" in the lobby.

Once the winds die down tomorrow I will be venturing down the road to take a few photos of the damaged buildings.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgVqMFRfLPY5.jpg

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgMl0FPUf5g8.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgWhJ7UKAT74.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgbQabfGuuOM.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgaoRi7O49V6.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgTU6shL1Bir.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgISHqU8xFQQ.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgeMMzaqEsxa.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgBUR829MIxL.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgmF7XqT6c0p.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgt5LaClux0a.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgCJJGEjZFaS.jpg
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/jpgfm7PlJivNM.jpg

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#207597 - 10/22/05 06:29 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
Pt. Morelos, 4pm

I just talked to M...... miraculously her phone line is still in operation. They are all safe in her house, although water has come in and it's a constant battle to keep up with it, she reports other homes with 2 metros of water in them.. Information was sketchy, and am not certain where the info is coming from.. please take this information " as is" since again it sounds like it's coming to her via neighbors, phone calls she is receiving.. she says parts of homes are floating down the street in the colonia, mostly the " lamina" homes we are all familiar with. She says the weather is still horrible, wind, rain, and asked us how much longer they would have to endure this!!! Her nerves are shot, she hasn't slept.. and says that there is no way for even the military to get in to the port side of town.. hoping to get boats in when possible... she says this is worse then Gilbert and she went through that one. I am certain the extent of the damages will not be known for some time yet, as accessibility is zero in and out of PM.. She has seen a few people moving around in waste deep water in front of her home.. the connection was not good so I was unable to get many details.. but will try her again this evening to see if we can get a better connection and I can get more details. Buit did want to let you all know that Maria and her family are all safe at this time.. wish I could get more information .. ...... We are trying to reach our other extended "family" in the colonia to no avail.. it was a miracle to get M...!!! Haven't been able to communicate with any of our friends in Cancun yet either.. as soon as I have any more contact with anyone I'll get back to you.. M.. seems to feel that the damage will be more than we imagine in Playa and PM as well as Cancun.

cancun 6pm
There's been some major structural damage to many of the high-rises in the Cancun Hotel zone.

Entire floors in the upper floors of the high-rises have been completely blown out!

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#207598 - 10/22/05 06:32 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
The most extreme winds of the eyewall have now been battering Cozumel and the mainland Yucatan Peninsula for over 30 hours. Sustained winds of 100 - 140 mph affecting a built-up resort area like Cozumel/Cancun for so long must have done extreme damage. Wilma has weakened to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Still, the damage to Mexico will increase today as structures already weakened by 30 hours of relentless winds continue to receive another 12 hours of stress.

The eye of very dangerous Category 2 Hurricane Wilma is moving offshore the Yucatan mainland this evening, a little earlier than I expected. This makes it more likely Wilma will be a bit stronger at landfall in Florida Monday--perhaps a strong Category 2 with 105 mph winds. We are not good at making intensity forecasts, and Wilma could easily be a Category stronger--or weaker. The argument for a weaker hurricane goes like this: Wilma's inner eyewall has collapsed, leaving an outer eyewall with diameter 80 miles in place. When an inner eyewall collapses like that, it usually takes at least a day for the eyewall to reform, and by a day from now, Wilma will start experiencing increased wind shear which will weaken her down to a Category 1.

The argument for a stronger hurricane goes like this: Wilma still has a large, intact circulation, and is still a Category 2 hurricane. She will not follow the usual normals (since this is the Hurricane Season of 2005, after all), and will re-intensify quickly over the warm waters that nurtured her rise to Category 5 status this week. By late Sunday, she will be a Category 3 hurricane again, and large enough and fast moving enough that the shear affecting her will be unable to significantly weaken her. Wilma will make landfall as a major hurricane on Florida's west coast.

So, both scenarios are plausible, and Florida must be prepared for the arrival of a major hurricane on Monday. Landfall anywhere between Sarasota and the Keys is possible.

A deluge of rain
Rainfall amounts in Mexico from Wilma have been extreme. Isla Mujeres, just offshore from Cancun, has reported almost 35" of rain over the past 1 1/2 days, and at one point reported 4" of rain in one hour between 2 and 3 am EDT today. Rainfall amounts in Cuba have not been nearly so extreme--at least in the areas of western Cuba that are still reporting data. San Juan y Martinez measured 10.7 cm (4.2 inches) of rain the past 24 hours, and storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 cm (7 inches) have been measured in Cuba's westernmost province. Grand Cayman received five inches, Jamaica's Kingston airport eight inches, and Belize four inches. The north coast of Honduras has had numerous locations receive ten inches of rain, with one unofficial report of 20 inches. Rainfall in Haiti reached 8 - 10 inches, and, triggered flash floods that killed 11 people.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

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#207599 - 10/23/05 05:31 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
dbdoberman Offline
Kevin, from his StormCarib site has additional pix of Cancun. Made me sick looking at them. StormCarib.com

It's been a wild weekend. I have a nephew trying to get back, who was originally on Cozumel, evacuated to a mainland shelter, and according to a phone call home to his Ma, is being bussed to Merida, and flown to Houston from there.

My heart breaks for the folks of this area, it looks so damn devasting, and I cannot even imagine how long it will take to rebuild.

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#207600 - 10/25/05 02:27 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline

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#207601 - 10/25/05 03:49 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
30,000 Tourists Still Stranded in Mexico
Oct 25 7:47 AM US/Eastern

By WILL WEISSERT
Associated Press Writer

CANCUN, Mexico

Hurricane Wilma is long gone, but those it left stranded on Mexico's Caribbean coast are tired, fed up and ready to go home after spending the better part of a week in foul-smelling shelters.

President Vicente Fox said getting the tourists home _ and then getting them back again by the start of tourism's high season in December _ was one of Mexico's highest national priorities, given that Cancun attracts so many tourist dollars.

On Monday, buses began ferrying hundreds of tourists out of Cancun to Merida, about 170 miles to the west, where they may be able to wrangle homebound flights.

About 1,200 Americans and a busload of Britons were among the first evacuated by bus. Officials said they hoped to open the Cancun airport by Tuesday. Still, almost 30,000 tourist remained stranded along the resort-studded coast.

"They should bring down transports. The conditions are getting worse, and people are going to start getting sick," said Tom Dinonno, 48, of Levittown, N.Y., as his wife Karen struggled to make a credit-card call from a Cancun pay phone.

When the call finally went through after 20 minutes, they got their son's answering machine _ and silent tears started to stream down Karen's cheeks.

Desperation like that echoed across the flooded, looted Cancun. A curfew was declared on Monday night, and police cars drove through the city, their lights flashing, barking orders over their loudspeakers for people to return to their homes.

"People are desperate. They are nervous," Fox said.

He said the country's first priority was to get enough food and water to the coast, and he dispatched Mexican military ships, planes and trucks to bring supplies. He said the second priority was to get tourists home.

"I feel the Mexican government is helping here to an extent, doing the best they can," said Kevin Riley, town finance administrator for Paw Paw, Mich. "But the U.S. has done nothing. Where is our government? They are only preparing for Florida. They forgot about us."

Soldiers and federal police took to Cancun's streets Monday after looters emptied entire blocks of stores, taking television sets, clothes, beer and even pizza delivery motorcycles. Police said about 200 people had been arrested.

The fact that the skies finally cleared in Cancun only made the waiting more unbearable.

"It's like, the sun's out, let's go, and we're still here," said Lynn Wickum, of San Francisco, Calif., as she drank a beer at one of the few Cancun bars that finally opened. "We feel the frustration building. You wouldn't want to make a scene, but at the same time, you're ready to go home."

Many of Cancun's own 500,000 residents had lost nearly everything in flooded or destroyed homes.

For two days, Hurricane Wilma turned Cancun's string of luxury hotels into an expensive breakwater, leaving their lobbies heaped with shattered metal, marble and glass, their gardens a swath of muck.

The booming string of Caribbean hotels anchored by Cancun produce almost half of Mexico's $11 billion in yearly foreign tourism revenue, and they constitute a significant element in Mexico's balance of trade.

"It is going to take us a couple of months to have 80, 90 percent of the tourism capacity of Cancun working," Fox said in a televised interview as he stood before cars sloshing through still-flooded streets.

"We're approaching the full tourist season. So speed is fundamental," he added.

Full recovery could take until Easter week, according to Ana Patricia Morales, vice president of the Cancun Hotels Association.

Only six people were known to have been killed by Wilma in Mexico, Fox said, adding to the 13 who died earlier in Jamaica and Haiti. At least six people died in Florida, bringing storm's overall toll to 25.

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#207602 - 11/01/05 01:51 PM Re: cancun/ cozumel conditions - wilma
Marty Administrator Offline
Thought you might like a little update from Villa Las Brisas of Isla
Mujeres. Things have been progressing quickly. Curtis & I are fine and
back together on Isla Mujeres. This hurricane had a huge punch to it,
and yes we did get damage. Our neighbor, a geologist, figured Isla had
216 mph sustained winds and gusts to 250 mph. . . We've never seen
anything like it in our lives and it lasted for 13 hours. . . plus 1
day before and 1 day after of 125 mph winds. The Palapero's (workers
for the thatch roofing) are going to be done in one week (half is
already finished), and the other part is really just major clean up
which is almost done. So our place is already looking great now.

Since the get go, the Navy trucks were out delivering food and water
to the locals who didn't prepare good enough. Thank goodness because
none of them were really prepared for such a long, powerful storm. As
of today, Isla Mujeres has water and telephones (unless it got ripped
from the house by a falling power pole like ours) and holes have been
dug for the new power poles, which are waiting to be strung starting
tomorrow. Downtown electricity is already on and tomorrow they'll make
there way to the south point. Hidalgo (restaurant row) restaurants were
open Saturday night, and there was a fiesta in the town square too.
Everyone is pitching in together in good ole Isla Mujeres to get her
back to normal. . . . and we are absolutely amazed at how fast
everything is coming together. Once electricity is on-line. . . we will
be open for business and margarita's.

I cannot begin to tell you how much your information and contact has
meant to us. Communication is still difficult for us until we get our
phone line hooked back up by Miguel & Luis, but that will be soon.
Isla will be up and running in no time.

Salud!
Ashley & Curtis
Villa Las Brisas
Isla Mujeres, Mexico

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