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#207608 - 10/25/05 02:45 PM CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 10/23- 10/29
SP Daily Offline
October 25, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

A cool dry northerly flow will accompany the passage
of a cold front through Belize.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Winds will
be from the North to Northwest at 10 to20 kts. There
will be little or no shower activity. The sea state
will be light chop to moderate.

The outlook is for partly cloudy and cooler weather on
Wednesday...



Tropical Weather Development:

A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN CARIB WILL
DRIVE FURTHER S BY THIS EVENING WITH NLY WINDS OF 20
KT FUNNELING WELL S INTO THE CARIB W OF 80W BY THIS
EVENING. WEAKENED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 21N78W TO
12N81W BY WED NIGHT.

CYCLONIC SHEAR OVER THE SW CARIB WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW SURFACE
PRESSURES BY FRIDAY.

THIS FEATURE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT

North West Caribbean:

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA ALONG 88W/89W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W NICARAGUA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION.

DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N78W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W AT 25/0300
UTC (9 PM LOCAL TIME).

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 17N81W.


Central Caribbean:

A MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR
8N66W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 14N FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TO OVER COLOMBIA. DIFFLUENCE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS AND TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADEWINDS MERGE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 76W TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.


Eastern Caribbean:

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ALONG 55W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THIS
WAVE FROM 52W-57W.

Top
#207609 - 10/26/05 02:28 PM Re: CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 10/23- 10/29
SP Daily Offline
October 26, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

A cool dry northerly flow will continue to affect
Belize and the North west Caribbean.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Winds will
be from the North to Northwest at less than 10 kts.
There will be little or no shower activity. The sea
state will be smooth to light chop.

The outlook is for partly cloudy and mild weather on
Thursday.



Tropical Weather Development:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 1009 MB LOW CENTER ANALYZED NEAR
10N80W WHICH IS AT THE S END OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GULF EARLIER THIS WEEK.

ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALBEIT
SLOWLY...WITH VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN
THE FORECAST. A SLOW DRIFT TO THE W OR WNW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 15N W OF 79W TO
OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA.

South West Caribbean:

A 1009 MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN

Central Caribbean:

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E UNITED
STATES...GULF OF MEXICO...NW CARIBBEAN...AND W ATLC
BRINGING COOL NORTHERLY CONTINENTAL AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH BERMUDA...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS E JAMAICA TO JUST N OF THE 1009 MB
LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 70 TO 90 KT IS
ALONG THE E SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE E GULF...W ATLC BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 93W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N79W ACROSS JAMAICA...E
CUBA...AND HAITI TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE/STRONG
N SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE WINDS
VEERING TO THE E IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED OVER THE AREA TO THE WEEKEND THEN WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM E TO W.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
HISPANIOLA TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA THE LESSER ANTILLES
TO NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.

Eastern Caribbean:

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 15N
MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS.

DIFFLUENCE AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND CONVERGENCE AT THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N E OF 75W TO OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND
SPREAD WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND.

Top
#207610 - 10/27/05 05:01 PM Re: CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 10/23- 10/29
SP Daily Offline
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

A cool dry northerly flow continues to affect Belize
and the North west Caribbean.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Winds will
variable at less than 10 kts. There will be little or
no shower activity. The sea state will be smooth to
light chop.

The outlook is for partly cloudy skies and warmer
temperatures on Friday.



Tropical Weather Development:

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
TROPICAL STORM BETA IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX WAS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM BETA AT 27/0900 UTC (3 AM LOCAL TIME).
T.S. BETA WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.4N 81.8W AT 27/0900
UTC.(3 AM LOCAL TIME) MOVING NW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN
WIND SPEED WAS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.

WARM WATERS AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE PROVIDING
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR BETA TO STRENGTHEN EVEN
FURTHER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 10N-12.5N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST
OF N COSTA RICA/S NICARAGUA.

Southwest Caribbean:

A 1009 MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

AN UPPER HIGH NEAR T.S. BETA IS PRODUCING OUTFLOW
ESPECIALLY TO THE N AND E OF THE SYSTEM. DIFFLUENCE
AND DEVELOPING OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE T.S. ARE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 20N FROM 77W-84W.

Northwest Caribbean:

BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FROM THE GULF COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 83W. ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC FAR E CUBA TO W JAMAICA WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARER SKIES NW OF A LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 22N82W TO ACROSS HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W.

Top
#207611 - 10/28/05 03:08 PM Re: CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 10/23- 10/29
SP Daily Offline
October 28, 2005 (6:00 am)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

A relatively dry air mass continues to affect Belize
and the North west Caribbean.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Winds will
variable at less than 10 kts. There will be little or
no shower activity. The sea state will be slight.

The outlook is for partly cloudy skies and warmer
temperatures on Saturday.



Tropical Weather Development:

HURRICANE WARNING S OF 15N W OF 80W.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 15N-16N BETWEEN 80W-84W.

TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 81.2W...OR
40 NM SE OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND 150 NM E OF
BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA...AT 28/0600 UTC (Midnight Local
time) MOVING N AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55
KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

BETA IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM. BETA CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND DEEPEST
CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN IS WITHIN 75 NM
OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W INCLUDING THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA.

Southwest Caribbean:

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE SOMETIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
SW CARIB AND CONTINUE DRIFTING NNW.

THEN STRENGTHEN TO CATRGORY TWO OFF THE NICARAGUAN
COAST AND MOVE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AS A STRONG
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.

Northwest Caribbean:

DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA
TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC TO OVER CUBA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N FROM HAITI TO OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

Central Caribbean:

DEEP MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N71W
WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO ITS SE BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
BETA...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM THE GUAJIRA
PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W NW TO 18N80W
INCLUDING THE SW PENINSULA OF HAITI AND JAMAICA.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF
19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS APPROACHING T.S. BETA.

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURING INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM LAKE MARACAIBO TO THE
WAVE AXIS.

Eastern Caribbean:

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE N LEEWARD
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 20N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WEAK CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MORE DUE TO AN
UPPER IGH THAN THE WAVE ITSELF.

Top
#207612 - 10/29/05 04:20 PM Re: CURRENT LOCAL WEATHER 10/23- 10/29
SP Daily Offline
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)

TODAY’S FORECAST

A relatively dry air mass and northerly flow continues
to affect Belize and the North west Caribbean.

San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the
next 24 hrs:

Partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Winds will
blow from the North to Northwest at 10 to 15 kts...
There will be little or no shower activity. The sea
state will be slight to choppy.

The outlook is for cloudy skies and increasing shower
activity late on Sunday.



Tropical Weather Development:

CARIBBEAN...
HURRICANE WARNING FROM 13N-15N W OF 80.5W
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 15N-16N W OF 81W.

BETA FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER NE NICARAGUA LATE
DAY 2 AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.

HURRICANE BETA AT 29/1200 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N
81.6W... OR ABOUT 30 NM/55 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA...MOVING NW 3 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.

BETA HAS INCREASED ITS INTENSITY FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE TSTM ACTIVITY COMES AND GOES IN BURSTS WITH
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ISOLATED NEAR THE CENTER. ONE
PRIMARY SPIRAL BAND IS NOTED EXTENDING N AND
E...MELDING INTO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WHICH HAS
FORMED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

Southwest Caribbean:

NUMEROUS MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 79W-83W. TEN TO FIFTEEN INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA...NE HONDURAS...AND
THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA DUE TO THE
SLOW N/NW MOVEMENT OF BETA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Northwest Caribbean:

HURRICANE BETA IS STILL LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING N PAST PROVIDENCIA
ISLAND.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE US WILL PRODUCE NE WINDS
TO 25 KT W OF FRONT TO 90W AND OVER NW CARIB. DRIER
WEATHER EXTENDS W OF 86W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER
TROUGH.

T.S. BETA FORECAST TO BECOME CAT ONE HRCN OVER W
CARIB.


Central Caribbean:

ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE FROM BETA CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM
THE PACIFIC OCEAN OVER MEXICO CONTINUING NORTH OVER
CUBA. THIS COUPLED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 77W-82W EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CNTRL CUBA.

EAST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY ALONG 71W
S OF 22N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION EXTENDS W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN
70W-74W STRETCHING OVER SOUTHERN ACROSS HISPANIOLA S
TO THE COLOMBIA VENZUELA BORDER.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED JUST S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 18N74W CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDING S OF HAITI TO NRN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.

Eastern Caribbean:

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 12N61W WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 19N60W...MOVING
QUICKLY W TOWARDS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXPECTED TO
CROSS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. THE LOW IS
PRODUCING DRY WEATHER FROM 6N-18N BETWEEN
62W-67W...BUT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO PUSH TO THE WEST...FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 53W-60W.

THE WAVE IS USHERING IN DRIER AIR OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...FURTHER EAST SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLC RIDGE SETS UP ALONG 50W WILL MAINTAIN ELY TRADES
OF 20 KT S OF 23N INTO CARIB E OF 70W.

Top

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