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#207613 - 10/27/05 04:23 PM HURRICANE BETA
SimonB Offline
Here we go again!


ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS
A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES... 120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
175 MILES... 280 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE
CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...11.5 N... 81.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$
NNNN

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#207614 - 10/28/05 10:39 PM Re: HURRICANE BETA
SP Daily Offline
From the US Embassy in Belize:
This is just an 'advisory' as there are not any definite signs at this time that Belize will be hit by Beta.

The following information was received form US SOUTHCOM, Miami on 28 October:

Torrential rainfalls and damaging winds associated with Tropical Storm Beta are expected to occur over Nicaragua, Honduras and areas of El Salvador, BELIZE, Guatemala, Panama and Costa Rica. This storm has the POTENTIAL to track toward Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula as well.

Just an 'advisory',
Cindy Gregg

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#207615 - 10/29/05 02:05 PM Re: HURRICANE BETA
SP Daily Offline
Hurricane Beta Discussion Number 10

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 29, 2005


conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate Beta has
become much better organized during the past 6 hours and has
strengthened into the 13th hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic season. A
29/0211z SSMI overpass that was not available for the previous
advisory revealed a very small eye embedded within the strongest
convection... which means Beta was probably a hurricane at 00z. The
current intensity of 70 kt is a blend of Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates of t4.5/77 kt from TAFB and t4.0/65 kt from SAB.


The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 320/03. The center
position has been difficult to locate until the past hour when an
eye feature/pronounced warm spot became apparent in infrared
imagery north of Providencia island. The overall motion...however
...Has been very slow and Beta may even be stationary. The compact
hurricane is currently trapped in a weakness in the subtropical
ridge that lies across the Greater Antilles... western Caribbean
Sea... and Central America. Most of the NHC models continue to
overestimate the strength of the ridge over Central America and
insist on driving Beta west-southwest or southwestward across
southern Nicaragua and into the eastern Pacific. However... they
have been advertising this motion for nearly 3 days now and it
hasn't happened yet. The exceptions have been the UKMET... Canadian
and some of the simpler statistical models... which have been taking
Beta across or just north of extreme northeastern Nicaragua an into
the Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel. Those models have had
a northward bias and also a fast speed bias. The shortwave trough
currently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that is inducing the
weakness in the subtropical ridge should continue to move eastward
across Florida and into the Atlantic during the next 24 hours. This
should allow the ridge to the north of Beta to gradually build
westward and slowly nudge the hurricane into Nicaragua. The
official forecast track is close to the previous track and lies
between the two extremes in the model guidance mentioned earlier.


The upper-level outflow pattern remains well established and the
vertical shear is forecast to weaken below 10 kt by 24 hours. The
very warm SSTs and the unusually moist mid-levels of the atmosphere
are conducive to Beta rapidly intensifying... if cold upwelling
does not occur beneath the slow moving cyclone. It is possible that
Beta could become a strong category 2 or even a category 3
hurricane before it makes landfall along the coast of Nicaragua.

Regardless of the intensity of Beta at landfall...this tropical
cyclone will bring torrential rainfall to portions of Central
America...primarily Nicaragua... causing considerable damage... and
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition... some
of the deep tropical moisture associated with Beta may get drawn
into a developing winter-type low pressure system over the Gulf of
Mexico... resulting in strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall
across Cuba... Florida... and portions of the southeastern U.S. By
the middle of next week.


Forecaster Stewart

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#207616 - 10/29/05 05:11 PM Re: HURRICANE BETA
SP Daily Offline
Hurricane Beta Discussion Number 11

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 29, 2005


an 1140z trmm overpass shows that Beta has a pinhole eye underneath
its central dense overcast...which has convective tops of -80c just
east of the center. Satellite intensity estimates are 77 kt from
TAFB...65 kt from SAB...and 55 kt from AFWA. Based on these and on
the eye size...the initial intensity is increased to 75 kt.

The initial motion remains 320/3...and over the past few hours Beta
may be moving a little left of that. Water vapor imagery shows
that the shortwave trough that was over the eastern United States
yesterday has moved into the Atlantic...with surface observations
and rawinsonde data showing rising pressures behind the trough.
The dynamical models forecast this trend to continue for 24-36
hr...which should cause Beta to turn more westward on the south
side of the narrow but strengthening ridge. While there continues
to be spread between the more northward UKMET and the more
southward GFS...the dynamical models agree that Beta will make
landfall in about 24 hr in eastern or northeastern Nicaragua. The
new forecast track is an update of the previous package...calling
for a gradual westward turn during the first 24 hr and a westward
motion across Nicaragua and Honduras thereafter. The new track is
just north of the model consensus and a bit slower.


Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin indicate that the
easterly vertical shear has decreased since yesterday...and the
rapid intensification index attached to the SHIPS model is showing
a 62 percent chance of 25 kt or more strengthening during the next
24 hr. Confidence in this happening is increased by the presence
of the pinhole eye. Both SHIPS and the GFDL bring Beta to 95 kt by
landfall...and the intensity forecast will follow that. However...
there is a good chance that Beta will get stronger than forecast
and make landfall as a major hurricane. After landfall...Beta
should weaken and eventually dissipate over the mountains of
Central America.


Regardless of the intensity of Beta at landfall...this tropical
cyclone will bring torrential rainfall to portions of Central
America...primarily Nicaragua and Honduras...causing considerable
damage...and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In
addition...some of the deep tropical moisture associated with Beta
may get drawn into a developing winter-type low pressure system
over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

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#207617 - 10/29/05 06:52 PM Re: HURRICANE BETA
SP Daily Offline
WTNT31 KNHC 291739
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

...BETA NOW MOVING WESTWARD AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
105 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. THIS IS ALSO
ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...EAST
OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 8 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE NEARBY
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN
NICARAGUA...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 60 MILES... 95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ON
PROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF BETA MOVES AWAY.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...13.9 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

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#207618 - 10/29/05 11:15 PM Re: HURRICANE BETA
SP Daily Offline
Hurricane Beta Discussion Number 12

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 29, 2005


reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
investigating Beta have found maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of
77 kt just north of the center. The central pressure extrapolated
from the aircraft dropsondes is 979 mb...and a 10 N mi wide eye is
present. The eye has been intermittently seen in satellite
imagery...with the deep convection mostly to the east of the eye at
this time. The initial intensity is 80 kt based on a combination
of aircraft data and satellite intensity estimates.

Beta has swung to the left during the past 6-12 hr and the initial
motion is now 280/4. As pressures continue to build north of the
hurricane...it should continue a slow westward to west-
northwestward motion for the next 72 hr until dissipation over
land. The new forecast track is shifted south of the previous
track based on the initial postion and motion. It should be noted
that the GFS...GFDL...and GFDN want to take Beta west of south into
the Pacific. Given that these models have been too fast to turn
Beta westward...the forecast track will stay to the north of these
models...being just north of the model consensus.


Although the deep convection is currently somewhat asymmetric...the
overall satellite appearance of the hurricane is improving. With
the favorable outflow and the small eye...there is still a good
chance of a burst of rapid intensification before landfall. The
GFDL makes Beta a major hurricane in 12-18 hr...and it seems likely
that winds will reach 95-105 kt before landfall. Beta should
weaken after landfall and eventually dissipate over the mountains
of Honduras in 72-96 hr.


Regardless of the intensity of Beta at landfall...this tropical
cyclone will bring torrential rainfall to portions of Central
America...primarily Nicaragua and Honduras...causing considerable
damage...and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In
addition...some of the deep tropical moisture associated with Beta
may get drawn into a developing winter-type low pressure system
over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.


Forecaster Beven

Top
#207619 - 10/30/05 02:37 AM Re: HURRICANE BETA
SP Daily Offline
WTNT31 KNHC 292345
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

...CORE OF BETA GRADUALLY NEARING THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...
WEATHER EXPECTED TO WORSEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
155 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF HURRICANE BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IN
NICARAGUA. BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE MAJOR
HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 60 MILES... 95 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ON
PROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF BETA
MOVES AWAY.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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#207620 - 10/30/05 03:55 AM Re: HURRICANE BETA
SP Daily Offline
WTNT31 KNHC 300244
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

...HURRICANE BETA HEADING FOR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH 105 MPH
WINDS...COULD BECOME STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE CORE OF BETA NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
EARLY SUNDAY. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS
NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THERE IS
A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE
BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 60 MILES... 95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA WHERE ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 25
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...13.7 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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#207621 - 10/30/05 04:09 AM Re: HURRICANE BETA
SP Daily Offline
Hurricane Beta Discussion Number 13

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 29, 2005


infrared satellite images indicate that Beta is currently
intensifying and becoming dangerous. T-numbers have increased to 5.0
on the Dvorak scale and the objective T-numbers are on the upward
trend. It appears that Beta has a small eye embedded within very
deep circular convection. The initial intensity has been increased
to 90 knots and there is about 12 hours for Beta to further
intensify to category 3 status before landfall in Nicaragua early
Sunday. Thereafter...the hurricane should weaken over the high
terrain of Central America.


The anticipated westward motion is already in place and this turn
was brilliantly forecast by the GFDL and by most of the global
models. Now that Beta is moving westward or even south of due west
at 4 to 5 knots...it is more certain that the cyclone is already
trapped within the easterly flow south of the developing ridge.
This steering pattern calls for a continuation of a general westward
motion until dissipation.


Regardless of the intensity of Beta at landfall...this tropical
cyclone will bring torrential rainfall to portions of Central
America...primarily Nicaragua and Honduras...causing considerable
damage...and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Even
when Beta moves inland and becomes a weakening cyclone...it could
still produce torrential rains.


Some of the deep tropical moisture associated with Beta may get
drawn into a developing winter-type low pressure system over the
Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.


Forecaster Avila

Top
#207622 - 10/30/05 02:08 PM Re: HURRICANE BETA
SP Daily Offline
Hurricane Beta Discussion Number 14

Statement as of 4:00 am EST on October 30, 2005


the eye became more clearly defined in GOES infrared imagery
overnight and at 06z was surrounded by a solid ring of very deep
convection with tops colder than -80c. The eye is so small...
however... that SSMI imagery from a 29/0156z overpass barely
resolved it. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from all
classifying agencies at 06z increased to t5.5/102 kt. Since that
time the cloud tops have warmed somewhat... but the eye is still
discernible. There is not any obvious reason why the intensity was
not 100 kt at 06z... and the advisory intensity is also set to 100
kt since the winds might not yet have decreased in response to the
very recent weakening of the convection. Beta is the eighth major
hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic season... although given current
trends it could weaken and reach the coastline of Nicaragua as a
category two. This small hurricane should weaken fairly rapidly
during the next day or two over the rugged terrain of Central
America.


A west-southwestward motion at about 7 kt has become established
overnight... and there does not seem to be any reason why Beta will
slow down soon... so landfall on the East Coast of Nicaragua is
imminent. Most of the dynamical models bring the center of Beta
across Nicaragua during the next couple of days and then forecast
at least a remnant low pressure system to emerge into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Since Beta is such a small hurricane and the
terrain of Nicaragua so rugged... the official forecast will call
for the depression to dissipate in 24 hours or less and for the
remnant low to dissipate before reaching the eastern Pacific. It
is possible... however... that whatever is left of Beta in a few
days could at some point lead to regeneration in the Pacific.


Beta will bring torrential rainfall to portions of Central
America... primarily Nicaragua and Honduras... likely leading to
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides which could cause
considerable damage. The torrential rains could continue well
inland and many hours after landfall... even after the winds
associated with Beta weaken.


Some of the deep tropical moisture associated with Beta could be
drawn into a developing extratropical low pressure system over the
Gulf of Mexico in a few days.


Forecaster Knabb

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