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#207794 - 05/15/06 02:37 PM Local Forecast 5/15- 5/21
San Pedro Daily Offline
May 15, 2006 (6:00 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)

TODAY’S WEATHER

Cloudy skies and hot weather continues over the North
West Caribbean, the Yucatan peninsula and Belize. Weak
instability will develop and produce scattered showers
and thundershowers over inland areas.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Mainly high clouds will invade the skies today and
tonight and only isolated showers early morning.

The highest temperature will be near 90 degrees F
after midday. Today’s winds will be Easterly at 10 to
15Kts.

The sea state will be slight to light chop. Seas will
be 3 feet or less beyond the reef.

The outlook is for partly cloudy and hot weather with
a chance of isolated showers through Wednesday.


Current Weather:
San Pedro Lagoon 0600 hrs
Cloud
8/8 cumulus
Wind (direction & speed)
East southeast 10 Kts.
Tide level
0.49 m
Precipitation
None

Western Caribbean:

NW CARIBBEAN UNDER A STREAM OF ADVECTED UPPER MOISTURE
BY HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA.

MOISTURE TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA ACROSS TO CUBA AND N OF
JAMAICA.

ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE OVER SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W
OF 70W PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WITH MORE
CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND SW
CARIBBEAN SEA.

Central & Eastern Caribbean:

TRADEWINDS CONTINUE UNDER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN AS
DIFFUSING COLD FRONT STALLS N OF GREATER ANTILLES
RELAXING PRES GRADIENT.

Top
#207795 - 05/16/06 01:44 PM Re: Local Forecast 5/15- 5/21
San Pedro Daily Offline
May 16, 2006 (6:00 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)

TODAY’S WEATHER

Partly sunny skies and hot weather will return over
the North West Caribbean, the Yucatan peninsula and
Belize. Weak instability will again produce scattered
showers and thundershowers over inland areas.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Mainly sunny skies today and partly cloudy tonight
with isolated showers or thundershowers early tomorrow
morning.

The highest temperature will be near 92 degrees F
after midday. Today’s winds will be Easterly at 6 to
15Kts.

The sea state will be slight to light chop. Seas will
be 1 to3 feet beyond the reef.

The outlook is for partly cloudy and hot weather with
a chance of isolated showers through Thursday.


Current Weather:
San Pedro Lagoon 0500 hrs
Cloud
3/8 Stratocumulus
Wind (direction & speed)
Variable 2 Kts.
Tide level
0.48 m
Precipitation
Early Morning thunderstorms
Ended 3 a.m.

Western Caribbean:

A BROAD TROUGH IS WEST OF 75W WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED
AXIS. THIS PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SOME THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS SPREADING TO THE GREATER
ANTILLES.

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS PULLED
OFF THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE AIDED BY A SFC
TROUGH ALONG 87W FROM 11-22N. AS OF 3 a.m. A 1009 MB
SFC LOW APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH
NEAR 18N87W.

THE TRADES WILL SLACKEN IN THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A COLD FRONT OR A REMNANT TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT/WED.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA LATER
TODAY AS THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE GULF SLIDES
SEWARD.


Central & Eastern Caribbean:

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N62W.
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS WIDESPREAD E OF 78W AND S OF
17N WITH THE DRIEST AIR E OF THE EASTERN-MOST ISLANDS.


SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA AND PANAMA WITH SOME OF THE CELLS
CONTAINING CLOUD TOP TEMPS COLDER THAN -90C.

TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE FROM 15-25 KT WITH A 1022 MB
HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE N OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED STREAKS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
RACING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

TRADES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODERATE IN THE E CARIBBEAN
THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE
GETS SETTLED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.

Top
#207796 - 05/17/06 01:55 PM Re: Local Forecast 5/15- 5/21
San Pedro Daily Offline
May 17, 2006 (6:00 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)

TODAY’S WEATHER

Sunny skies and cool weather will affect the Yucatan
peninsula and Belize. A cold front will continue to
produce scattered showers and thundershowers over the
North West Caribbean.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Mainly sunny skies today and partly cloudy tonight
with isolated showers or thundershowers early tomorrow
morning.

The highest temperature will be near 82 degrees F
after midday. Today’s winds will be Northerly at 10 to
20Kts.

The sea state will be slight to light chop. Seas will
be 3 to 5 feet beyond the reef.

The outlook is for partly cloudy and mild weather with
a chance of isolated showers through Thursday.


Current Weather:
San Pedro Lagoon 0500 hrs
Cloud
7/8 Stratocumulus
Wind (direction & speed)
West 12 Kts.
Tide level
0.51 m
Precipitation
None

Western Caribbean:

COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS
BY AFTERNOON AND BECOME SATIONARY.

NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT W OF THE FRONT
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN DECREASE ON THU.

THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PULLED E OF THE
AREA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE W ATLC.

FAIR WEATHER EXISTS W OF 86W UNDER MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE. SFC WINDS ARE NLY W OF 86W NEAR 15 KT.

THE COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PRESS TO THE E CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA LATER TODAY
ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD.

A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMS LIES ON THE
W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC
AND EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE ALONG 14N85W TO CENTRAL
CUBA THEN WITHIN 180 NM TO 30N73W.

STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS COLDER THAN
-90C IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 73W-77W
MOVING WWARD ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE.

Central & Eastern Caribbean:

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 12N70W.

WEATHER IS THE RULE E OF 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN AND E OF
65W IN THE W ATLC UNDER DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE FROM 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 78W. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN THRU
THU AND THEN WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWARD ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW SLOWLY WEAKENING THRU THE WEEK.

15 TO 20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ATLC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

Top
#207797 - 05/18/06 02:43 PM Re: Local Forecast 5/15- 5/21
San Pedro Daily Offline
May 18, 2006 (6:00 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)

TODAY’S WEATHER

Sunny skies and mild weather will affect the Yucatan
peninsula and Belize. A weak cold front lingers over
the North West Caribbean.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Mainly sunny skies today and fair tonight. No rainfall
is expected.

The highest temperature will be near 86 degrees F
after midday.

Today’s winds will be Northerly at 5 to 16Kts.

The sea state will be slight to light chop. Seas will
be 3 to 5 feet beyond the reef.

The outlook is for partly cloudy and mild weather with
through Saturday.


Current Weather:
San Pedro Lagoon 0600 hrs
Cloud
1/8 Stratocumulus
Wind (direction & speed)
East northeast 4Kts.
Tide level
0.46 m
Precipitation
None

Western Caribbean:

A COLD FRONT STREACHES FROM A BROAD WEAK 1008 MB LOW
OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W SWD TO THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT
HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS MOISTURE HAS BECOME
DIFFUSE.

NLY WINDS NEAR 15 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NWD LIKELY
DISSIPATING BY THIS WEEKEND.

RAINFALL WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE W ATLC WITH
STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NW CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE AREA.

REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BUILD BACK WWARD ACROSS THE S
GULF...CUBA AND S FLORIDA LATE SUN.

TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
LARGE SFC RIDGE STRETCHES WWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC.


Central & Eastern Caribbean:

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS WITHIN 300 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF THE SFC LOW.

A STRONG CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS OVER E CUBA FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 74W-76W.

FARTHER EAST...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
IS CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO.

CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER N
COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS. VERY DRY STABLE AIR IS
WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF THE UPPER HIGH.

TRADEWINDS ARE WEAK IN THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND
THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TRADES E OF 70W.

Top
#207798 - 05/19/06 02:55 PM Re: Local Forecast 5/15- 5/21
San Pedro Daily Offline
May 19, 2006 (6:00 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)

TODAY’S WEATHER

Partly skies and mild weather will affect the Yucatan
peninsula and Belize. A weakening cold front lingers
over the North West Caribbean.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Partly cloudy today and tonight with isolated showers
during afternoon and early morning hours..

The highest temperature will be near 86 degrees F
after midday.

Today’s winds will be Northerly at 5 to 16Kts.

The sea state will be slight to light chop. Seas will
be less than 3 feet beyond the reef.

The outlook is for partly cloudy and mild weather with
through Saturday.


Current Weather:
San Pedro Lagoon 0800 hrs
Cloud
7/8 Altotocumulus
Wind (direction & speed)
Southeast 4Kts.
Tide level
0.46 m
Precipitation
None

Western Caribbean:

AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NOW APPEARS TO HAVE
BECOME STATIONARY IN MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE
FRONT IS STILL PROGRESSING EWD FROM 32N64W TO 26N70W
THEN STATIONARY ACROSS E CUBA TO NEAR JAMAICA. THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N82W.

TRADES ARE LIGHT IN THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE
WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-84W. THIS
WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Central & Eastern Caribbean:

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS MUCH OF
THIS REGION.

A SHARP EWD TITLED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH N OF
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA NEAR 13N71W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AIDED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THIS MOISTURE IS THEN ADVECTED
NEWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITHIN
300 NM E OF THE SFC FRONT.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN NAMELY E OF
65W...SPREADING SLOWLY WWD. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE TRADES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE
UNIFORM IN THE CARIBBEAN AS THE WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

Top

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