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May 15, 2006 (6:00 a.m.) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)
TODAY'S WEATHER
Cloudy skies and hot weather continues over the North West Caribbean, the Yucatan peninsula and Belize. Weak instability will develop and produce scattered showers and thundershowers over inland areas.
Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Mainly high clouds will invade the skies today and tonight and only isolated showers early morning.
The highest temperature will be near 90 degrees F after midday. Today's winds will be Easterly at 10 to 15Kts.
The sea state will be slight to light chop. Seas will be 3 feet or less beyond the reef.
The outlook is for partly cloudy and hot weather with a chance of isolated showers through Wednesday.
Current Weather: San Pedro Lagoon 0600 hrs Cloud 8/8 cumulus Wind (direction & speed) East southeast 10 Kts. Tide level 0.49 m Precipitation None
Western Caribbean:
NW CARIBBEAN UNDER A STREAM OF ADVECTED UPPER MOISTURE BY HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA.
MOISTURE TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA ACROSS TO CUBA AND N OF JAMAICA.
ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE OVER SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 70W PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA.
Central & Eastern Caribbean:
TRADEWINDS CONTINUE UNDER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN AS DIFFUSING COLD FRONT STALLS N OF GREATER ANTILLES RELAXING PRES GRADIENT.
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May 16, 2006 (6:00 a.m.) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)
TODAY'S WEATHER
Partly sunny skies and hot weather will return over the North West Caribbean, the Yucatan peninsula and Belize. Weak instability will again produce scattered showers and thundershowers over inland areas.
Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Mainly sunny skies today and partly cloudy tonight with isolated showers or thundershowers early tomorrow morning.
The highest temperature will be near 92 degrees F after midday. Today's winds will be Easterly at 6 to 15Kts.
The sea state will be slight to light chop. Seas will be 1 to3 feet beyond the reef.
The outlook is for partly cloudy and hot weather with a chance of isolated showers through Thursday.
Current Weather: San Pedro Lagoon 0500 hrs Cloud 3/8 Stratocumulus Wind (direction & speed) Variable 2 Kts. Tide level 0.48 m Precipitation Early Morning thunderstorms Ended 3 a.m.
Western Caribbean:
A BROAD TROUGH IS WEST OF 75W WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED AXIS. THIS PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SOME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS SPREADING TO THE GREATER ANTILLES.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS PULLED OFF THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH ALONG 87W FROM 11-22N. AS OF 3 a.m. A 1009 MB SFC LOW APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH NEAR 18N87W.
THE TRADES WILL SLACKEN IN THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A COLD FRONT OR A REMNANT TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT/WED.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY AS THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE GULF SLIDES SEWARD.
Central & Eastern Caribbean:
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N62W. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS WIDESPREAD E OF 78W AND S OF 17N WITH THE DRIEST AIR E OF THE EASTERN-MOST ISLANDS.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA AND PANAMA WITH SOME OF THE CELLS CONTAINING CLOUD TOP TEMPS COLDER THAN -90C.
TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE FROM 15-25 KT WITH A 1022 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE N OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED STREAKS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE RACING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
TRADES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODERATE IN THE E CARIBBEAN THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE GETS SETTLED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
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May 17, 2006 (6:00 a.m.) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)
TODAY'S WEATHER
Sunny skies and cool weather will affect the Yucatan peninsula and Belize. A cold front will continue to produce scattered showers and thundershowers over the North West Caribbean.
Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Mainly sunny skies today and partly cloudy tonight with isolated showers or thundershowers early tomorrow morning.
The highest temperature will be near 82 degrees F after midday. Today's winds will be Northerly at 10 to 20Kts.
The sea state will be slight to light chop. Seas will be 3 to 5 feet beyond the reef.
The outlook is for partly cloudy and mild weather with a chance of isolated showers through Thursday.
Current Weather: San Pedro Lagoon 0500 hrs Cloud 7/8 Stratocumulus Wind (direction & speed) West 12 Kts. Tide level 0.51 m Precipitation None
Western Caribbean:
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS BY AFTERNOON AND BECOME SATIONARY.
NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT W OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN DECREASE ON THU.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PULLED E OF THE AREA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE W ATLC.
FAIR WEATHER EXISTS W OF 86W UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. SFC WINDS ARE NLY W OF 86W NEAR 15 KT.
THE COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS TO THE E CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA LATER TODAY ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD.
A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMS LIES ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC AND EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE ALONG 14N85W TO CENTRAL CUBA THEN WITHIN 180 NM TO 30N73W.
STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS COLDER THAN -90C IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 73W-77W MOVING WWARD ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE.
Central & Eastern Caribbean:
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W.
WEATHER IS THE RULE E OF 75W IN THE CARIBBEAN AND E OF 65W IN THE W ATLC UNDER DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE FROM 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 78W. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN THRU THU AND THEN WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW SLOWLY WEAKENING THRU THE WEEK.
15 TO 20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
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May 18, 2006 (6:00 a.m.) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)
TODAY'S WEATHER
Sunny skies and mild weather will affect the Yucatan peninsula and Belize. A weak cold front lingers over the North West Caribbean.
Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Mainly sunny skies today and fair tonight. No rainfall is expected.
The highest temperature will be near 86 degrees F after midday.
Today's winds will be Northerly at 5 to 16Kts.
The sea state will be slight to light chop. Seas will be 3 to 5 feet beyond the reef.
The outlook is for partly cloudy and mild weather with through Saturday.
Current Weather: San Pedro Lagoon 0600 hrs Cloud 1/8 Stratocumulus Wind (direction & speed) East northeast 4Kts. Tide level 0.46 m Precipitation None
Western Caribbean:
A COLD FRONT STREACHES FROM A BROAD WEAK 1008 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W SWD TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS MOISTURE HAS BECOME DIFFUSE. NLY WINDS NEAR 15 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NWD LIKELY DISSIPATING BY THIS WEEKEND.
RAINFALL WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE W ATLC WITH STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE AREA.
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BUILD BACK WWARD ACROSS THE S GULF...CUBA AND S FLORIDA LATE SUN.
TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE SFC RIDGE STRETCHES WWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC.
Central & Eastern Caribbean:
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF THE SFC LOW.
A STRONG CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS OVER E CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 74W-76W.
FARTHER EAST...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER N COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS. VERY DRY STABLE AIR IS WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF THE UPPER HIGH.
TRADEWINDS ARE WEAK IN THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TRADES E OF 70W.
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May 19, 2006 (6:00 a.m.) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)
TODAY'S WEATHER
Partly skies and mild weather will affect the Yucatan peninsula and Belize. A weakening cold front lingers over the North West Caribbean.
Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Partly cloudy today and tonight with isolated showers during afternoon and early morning hours..
The highest temperature will be near 86 degrees F after midday.
Today's winds will be Northerly at 5 to 16Kts.
The sea state will be slight to light chop. Seas will be less than 3 feet beyond the reef.
The outlook is for partly cloudy and mild weather with through Saturday.
Current Weather: San Pedro Lagoon 0800 hrs Cloud 7/8 Altotocumulus Wind (direction & speed) Southeast 4Kts. Tide level 0.46 m Precipitation None
Western Caribbean:
AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND NOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME STATIONARY IN MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGRESSING EWD FROM 32N64W TO 26N70W THEN STATIONARY ACROSS E CUBA TO NEAR JAMAICA. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N82W.
TRADES ARE LIGHT IN THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-84W. THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Central & Eastern Caribbean:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS MUCH OF THIS REGION.
A SHARP EWD TITLED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH N OF COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA NEAR 13N71W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AIDED BY A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THIS MOISTURE IS THEN ADVECTED NEWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE SFC FRONT.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN NAMELY E OF 65W...SPREADING SLOWLY WWD. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TRADES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM IN THE CARIBBEAN AS THE WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATES.
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