Jun 6, 2006 (6:00 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)

TODAY’S WEATHER

Cloudy weather will persist ahead of a slow moving
surface trough in the Western Caribbean.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Cloudy skies today and tonight with isolated showers
and thundershowers.

The highest temperature will be near 88 degrees F
after midday.

Today’s winds will blow from East to East northeast at
5 to 12Kts.

The sea state will be light chop. Seas will be 2 to 3
feet beyond the reef.

The outlook is for cloudy and showery weather through
Wednesday.

Western Caribbean:

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 15N86W AND EXTENDS OVER THE W TWO THIRDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN TO 12N70W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO A
WEAK 1008 MB NEAR 18N83W TO ACROSS HONDURAS NEAR
15N86W

DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS GENERATING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM OF
LINE FROM THE N CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
BEYOND 32N63W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY JUST N OF
HISPANIOLA.

A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NE COAST
OF HONDURAS PAST GRAND CAYMAN AND INTO CENTRAL CUBA AS
NOTED BY SATELLITE AND SHIP/BUOY/LAND OBSERVATIONS.
WINDS ARE SELY ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND NELY ON
THE W SIDE...BUT SPEEDS ARE RUNNING NO MORE THAN ABOUT
10-15 KT.

A STRONG GRADIENT LIES TO THE E OF THIS TROUGH DUE TO
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE ATLC...AND WINDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N ATLC ARE CURRENTLY ELY 15-20 KT
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

FORECAST WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
THE TROUGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY (PERHAPS SLOWLY
DRIFTING W) OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND THE ELY TRADES
15-20 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.


Central & Eastern Caribbean:

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 16N E OF 66W.

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND AN AREA OF OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE
LOW WITHIN 120/150 NM RADIUS OF 17N78W INCLUDING ALL
OF JAMAICA.

June7 2006 (6:00 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)

TODAY’S WEATHER

Cloudy weather will persist ahead of a slow moving
surface trough in the Western Caribbean.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Cloudy skies today and tonight with isolated showers
and thundershowers.

The highest temperature will be near 88 degrees F
after midday.

Today’s winds will blow from East at 5 to 12Kts.

The sea state will be light chop. Seas will be 2 to 3
feet beyond the reef.

The outlook is for cloudy and showery weather through
Friday.


Current Weather:
San Pedro Lagoon 0600 hrs
Cloud
78 Cumulus & Cirrus
Wind (direction & speed)
East 8 Kts.
Tide level
0.57 m
Precipitation
None

Western Caribbean:

A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM NE HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH WINDS
NEAR 10 KT OR LESS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

LIGHT S/SE WINDS ALSO COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE WEAK GRADIENT.

THE RIDGE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN AND
WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.

THE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT W TO THE
YUCATAN/BELIZE COAST THU/FRI AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN.

THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 17N FROM
74W-79W...INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN
120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W.


Central & Eastern Caribbean:

A STRONG GRADIENT LIES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS DUE TO ATLC RIDGING E OF 70W AND WINDS ARE
AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS ACCORDING TO
SHIP OBSERVATIONS.

THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN DRY AIR AND FAIR
SKIES.

June 8th, 2006 (6 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with
excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)

TODAY’S WEATHER

A slow moving surface trough is developing in the
Western Caribbean and over the gulf of Honduras and
Belize. Overcast conditions and scattered showers will
continue.

Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will
experience for the next 24 hrs:

Overcast skies today and tonight with isolated showers
and thundershowers.

The highest temperature will be near 84degrees F after
midday.

Winds will be light and variable at times or blow from
East at 5 to 12Kts.

The sea state will be smooth to light chop or choppy.
Seas will be 2 to 3 feet beyond the reef.

The outlook is for cloudy and showery weather through
Friday.


Current Weather:
San Pedro Lagoon 070 hrs
Cloud
Overcast
Wind (direction & speed)
East 3 Kts.
Tide level
0.58 m
Precipitation
None

Western Caribbean:

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO
EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 18N88W NE ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR W
CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF
THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO OVER BELIZE NEAR
17N89W. AS A RESULT THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA W OF 75W.


Special Feature:

THE TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BROADENED OVER THE PAST
24 HRS...BUT STILL STRETCHES NE ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA.


IT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY
SAT THEN DRIFT INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN...AND
SIMULTANEOUSLY INCREASING SE WINDS FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO GULF OF HONDURAS AS IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

Central & Eastern Caribbean:

ATLC RIDGE E OF 70W WILL KEEP AT LEAST 20 KT OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN AND
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH MON.

June 9th, 2006 (6 a.m.)
SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center)
TODAY’S WEATHER
A slow moving surface trough has developed into a Low pressure center in the Western Caribbean and over the gulf of Honduras and Belize. Overcast conditions and scattered showers and thundershowers will continue.
Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Overcast skies today and tonight with several showers and thundershowers and periods of rain.
The highest temperature will be near 84degrees F after midday.
Winds will be variable and light at times or between 5 to 12Kts.
The sea state will be smooth to light chop or choppy. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet beyond the reef.
The outlook is for cloudy and showery weather through Sunday.

Current Weather:
San Pedro Lagoon 0700 hrs
Cloud
Overcast Nimbostratus
Wind (direction & speed)
Light & variable.
Tide level
0.60 m
Precipitation
Continuous Moderate
Western Caribbean:
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 16N87W ENE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC NEAR W CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO A STRENGTHENING 1008 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18N86W.
THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND DRIFT N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Special Feature:
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OSCILLATING E-W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS NOAA BUOY 42056 (WHICH HAS BEEN NE THEN SE THEN NE AGAIN DURING THE PAST 24 HRS OR SO).
THE AXIS NOW APPEARS TO STRETCH FROM NE HONDURAS (WITH LOWEST PRESSURES INLAND) NE TOWARDS THE ISLE OF YOUTH WITH WINDS NOW RUNNING NEAR 15 KT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH...AND EVEN A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 21 KT AT BUOY 42057 AT 9 P.M. LOCAL TIME.
SEAS ARE STARTING TO BUILD SLIGHTLY WITH THESE WINDS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE FROM BUOY 42057 EWD. FORECAST IS FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMET OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THIS TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH A NWD MOVEMENT NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SAT. OR WITH A NORTHWARDD TRACK NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
SIGNIFICANT WIND/WEATHER WILL OCCUR TO THE E OF THE AXIS.
Central & Eastern Caribbean:
THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BE UNABLE TO BUILD W AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THROUGH AND WILL KEEP THE TRADES MAINLY IN THE 20 KT RANGE. THIS SETUP IS CONTINUING TO GIVE THE E CARIBBEAN DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES.
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE W THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 11N67W.

June 10th, 2006 (6 a.m.)

SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center )



TODAY’S WEATHER



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORMED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20.9N 85.3W AT 10/1200 UTC. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 44 NM/80 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA .



Overcast conditions over the gulf of Honduras and Belize and scattered showers and thundershowers will continue.




Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:



Overcast skies today and tonight with showers and thundershowers and periods of rain mainly late afternoon and evening.



The highest temperature will be near 80degrees F after midday.



Winds will be westerly between 5 to 12Kts but will gradually back towards the south.



The sea state will be light chop or choppy. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet beyond the reef.



The outlook is for cloudy and showery weather through Sunday.





Current Weather:

San Pedro Lagoon 0700 hrs

Cloud

Overcast stratus

Wind (direction & speed)

West northwest 6 Kts.

Tide level

0.65 m
Precipitation

Rain early morning



Western Caribbean :



THE MAIN WEATHER INTEREST IN THIS AREA IS A 1003 MB LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS.



LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE SLY FLOW FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ELY FLOW FROM THE ATLC RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NW OF COLOMBIA FROM 9.5N-12.5N BETWEEN 76W-79W.



Special Feature:



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORMED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20.9N 85.3W AT 10/1200 UTC. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 44 NM/80 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA . THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES 10 KT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.



THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS

SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.



THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA ...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA . THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.



TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA .



Central & Eastern Caribbean :



UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAMAICA EASTWARD TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO WITH ELY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SAVE FOR A SMALL AREA OF UPPER TROUGHING IN THE FAR SE WINDWARD ISLANDS.



ELSEWHERE UPPER CONVERGENCE IS LEADING TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN .

June 11th, 2006 (6 a.m.)

SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Tropical Prediction Center )



TODAY’S WEATHER



THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS NEAR 23.5N 87.0W AT 11/0900 UTC.(3 a.m. local time)..OR ABOUT 335 MILES WSW OF KEY WEST. A tail of moisture associated with the depression will linger over the Northwest Caribbean and Belize producing cloudy and showery weather.



Ambergris Caye, San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:



Cloudy skies today and tonight with isolated showers late evening and early morning.



The highest temperature will be near 86 degrees F after midday.



Winds will be westerly around 5 kts. at first then gradually back towards the southeast between 5 to 12Kts.



The sea state will become light chop or choppy. Seas will be 3 feet or less beyond the reef.



The outlook is for partly cloudy through Tuesday.





Current Weather:

San Pedro Lagoon 0700 hrs

Cloud

Overcast stratocumulus

Wind (direction & speed)

West 4 Kts.

Tide level

0.59 m
Precipitation

None



Western Caribbean :



AN UPPER HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W RIDGING EASTWARD ACROSS HAITI THEN ALONG 20N IN THE ATLC BEYOND 60W.



RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A TAIL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO LINGER FROM W CUBA TO YUCATAN WITH SHOWER CHANCES SLOWLY GOING DOWN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE .



WINDS/SEAS WILL EASE UP NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN ADVANCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE (WINDS 20-25 KT SEAS TO 10 FT).



Special
Feature:



THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS NEAR 23.5N 87.0W AT 11/0900 UTC.(3 A.M. LOCAL TIME)..OR ABOUT 335 MILES WSW OF KEY WEST... MOVING NW 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT.



THE MOST RECENT NIGHT-VIS SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE BEST CENTER IS W OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH IS SUBSTANTIATED BY NEARBY BUOYS AND SHIPS REPORTS.



THERE STILL MAY BE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION LIKE YESTERDAY.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED A 10 MIN MEAN WIND OF 30 KT GUSTING TO 38 KT...AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WOULD GIVE IT THE NAME ALBERTO. BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SW WINDS ALOFT OVER THE CENTER. A GENERAL NLY TRACK IS EXPECTED WITH SOME QUESTION ON WHERE IT GOES AFTERWARD.



THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA CAUSING DEVASTATING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W.



Central & Eastern Caribbean :



A SMALL AREA OF UPPER TROUGHING LIES IN THE FAR SE WINDWARD ISLANDS OTHERWISE ELY WINDS ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA. UPPER CONVERGENCE IS LEADING TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY AN OCCASIONAL DIURNAL TSTM FLARE-UP OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES .



THE ENTIRE LESSER ANTILLES TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TUE INTO WED.