from Dr.Jeff Masters Blog:
The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.

The blob off Panama vanished overnight.

From the Crown Weather Blog:

The area that we will really need to watch is the western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. All of the global models are at the least forecasting lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean in response to a strong cold front that is forecasted to stall out over this area next week. The NOGAPS Model is the most aggressive and forecasts a tropical storm to form near the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday, October 3rd. The ECMWF Model is also forecasting lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean next week and it forecasts the upper air pattern to shift late next week to a southeast to northwest flow from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. This type of upper air flow suggests that anything that gets going down in the Caribbean could be steered into the Gulf of Mexico by next weekend. This is something that I am going to monitor very closely and keep you all updated.

Just typical. Everytime we have a holiday weekend on the horizon - something comes up.

Let's hope we get a little rain and not much else!

I Amanda - I think it's not the holiday but probably Sean Keating that is responsible for pending weather issues. My old boat was wrecked in Keith. Sean bought it and took it home to his yard. It's been under repair there ever since ------- until a few days ago when the boat (beautifully restored by Sean) was launched.
:rolleyes:

DISCLAIMER - THIS IS A JOKE

But seriously folks - see the new blob off the coast of Honduras ? As Amanda says - hope it's just the much-needed rain.

Today's Crown Weather Blog, nothing definite yet:

The area that we will really need to watch is the western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula next week. I know I keep saying this, but I feel strongly that this is a key area to watch over the next 7 to 10 days. All of the global models continue to forecast lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean in response to a strong cold front that is forecasted to stall out over this area next week. The ECMWF Model continues to forecast lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean next week and it forecasts the upper air pattern to shift late next week to a southeast to northwest flow from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. This type of upper air flow suggests that anything that gets going down in the Caribbean could be steered into the Gulf of Mexico in about 8 to 14 days. This is something that I am going to monitor very closely and keep you all updated.