Weather experts - please comment on the big blob that blew up off the coast of Panama and Columbia last night?
Anti-cyclonic flow was noted in NHC's morning report. I'd love to learn that this is merely some much needed rain on the way, but having watched Mitch form up in the same place and about the same time of year, I tend to be concerned whenever something appears there.
Expert opinions please?

go to this link for live time view...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Looks big but too early to say? Wilma had also started out in this area am I not correct? Yes, rain would be nice but without the sturm un drang.

Wow....haven't received any emails from them yet, but you're right, looks kind of creepy......

This drawing sums up the situation, guess we now have to wait and see what it's going to do:

From my favorite blog site - Crownweather.com

Monday, September 25, 2006
Update To This Morning's (Monday) Discussion
I wanted to make a mention about the current area of convection located in the southern Caribbean. This could be something that may need to be watched. I would like to give this area of disturbed weather to persist for another 24 to 48 hours before we should start to be concerned with it. It should be noted that the models are showing a lowering area of barometric pressure across the western Caribbean this weekend into early next week. The NOGAPS model is currently the only model that forecasts tropical storm development from this system. We are about to enter into October when activity shifts back to the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, so this may be something to keep an eye on.

I will post a full discussion by 8 am EDT Wednesday, however, if the convection in the southern Caribbean persists tomorrow, then I will issue a discussion tomorrow instead.

A note from Winston Panton:
As the tempo of the Atlantic Hurricane season slows around late Sep/Oct the developing tropical systems favour the Western Caribbean as source of origin.
The ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) becomes more active in this location.. Panama.
Pulses of Low pressure regularly detach from the Zone and move Northward and can act as a center of tropical development.
If this coincides with a Weak Cold Front, or a weak Tropical Wave or both then the stage is set for an area of disturbed weather to develop especially if the sea surface temperature is above 80 degrees F.

Which these days is usually the case....higher surface temp degrees that is. Oh well....did look interesting on the sat loop this morning.

nogaps says our chances of a blow will be elevated starting early next week for a period of about 2 weeks.

Just keep an eye out, and do a search on a great hurricane preparation list that Diane wrote a few months ago!

yes, couldn't believe how high the water temps were last week! Actually uncomfortably hot in some areas. Let's hope this blows by...

Thanks Amanda for reminding me to check the Blog on Crown Weather! Here is that Blong's Tuesday morning update on our little swirly thing - note that it refers to an approaching tropical wave, and see above Winston Panto's commentary (weather's post) on how that can begin to stir things up.

*************

The NOGAPS model has been and is still the most aggressive with this scenario and forecasts a tropical storm to move northward out of the southwest Caribbean this weekend and forecasts it to be located near the western tip of Cuba by Sunday. At the current time, the deep convection that was present throughout yesterday has diminished, however, surface analysis indicates that there is a tropical wave approaching this area from the east and this may interact with a vorticity maximum that is now over the southwest Caribbean. This may be is what the models are picking up on to develop and this is a system that I am going to monitor very closely and keep you all updated.

from Dr.Jeff Masters Blog:
The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.

The blob off Panama vanished overnight.

From the Crown Weather Blog:

The area that we will really need to watch is the western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. All of the global models are at the least forecasting lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean in response to a strong cold front that is forecasted to stall out over this area next week. The NOGAPS Model is the most aggressive and forecasts a tropical storm to form near the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday, October 3rd. The ECMWF Model is also forecasting lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean next week and it forecasts the upper air pattern to shift late next week to a southeast to northwest flow from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. This type of upper air flow suggests that anything that gets going down in the Caribbean could be steered into the Gulf of Mexico by next weekend. This is something that I am going to monitor very closely and keep you all updated.

Just typical. Everytime we have a holiday weekend on the horizon - something comes up.

Let's hope we get a little rain and not much else!

I Amanda - I think it's not the holiday but probably Sean Keating that is responsible for pending weather issues. My old boat was wrecked in Keith. Sean bought it and took it home to his yard. It's been under repair there ever since ------- until a few days ago when the boat (beautifully restored by Sean) was launched.
:rolleyes:

DISCLAIMER - THIS IS A JOKE

But seriously folks - see the new blob off the coast of Honduras ? As Amanda says - hope it's just the much-needed rain.

Today's Crown Weather Blog, nothing definite yet:

The area that we will really need to watch is the western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula next week. I know I keep saying this, but I feel strongly that this is a key area to watch over the next 7 to 10 days. All of the global models continue to forecast lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean in response to a strong cold front that is forecasted to stall out over this area next week. The ECMWF Model continues to forecast lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean next week and it forecasts the upper air pattern to shift late next week to a southeast to northwest flow from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. This type of upper air flow suggests that anything that gets going down in the Caribbean could be steered into the Gulf of Mexico in about 8 to 14 days. This is something that I am going to monitor very closely and keep you all updated.