From my favorite blog site - Crownweather.com
Monday, September 25, 2006
Update To This Morning's (Monday) Discussion
I wanted to make a mention about the current area of convection located in the southern Caribbean. This could be something that may need to be watched. I would like to give this area of disturbed weather to persist for another 24 to 48 hours before we should start to be concerned with it. It should be noted that the models are showing a lowering area of barometric pressure across the western Caribbean this weekend into early next week. The NOGAPS model is currently the only model that forecasts tropical storm development from this system. We are about to enter into October when activity shifts back to the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, so this may be something to keep an eye on.
I will post a full discussion by 8 am EDT Wednesday, however, if the convection in the southern Caribbean persists tomorrow, then I will issue a discussion tomorrow instead.