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#234356 - 04/04/07 04:08 PM Hurricane article
tacogirl Offline

Hurricanes Hardly Happened Last Year - But What About
This Year?

"We foresee an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2007." says Dr . Gray the well known Colorado forecaster. http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2006/dec2006/

The forecast predicts 14 named storms, 7 of them hurricanes, and 3 of those hurricanes will be 'intense', with 8 intense hurricane days.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College London, says "based on past, current and projected climate signals, tropical cyclone activity is forecast to be about 75% above the 1950-2006 norm in 2007. This is the highest March forecast for activity in any year since TSR forecasts began in 1984."caribbean hurricanes

Two predictors are the forecast July-September 2007 trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2007 sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic. The former influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) in the main hurricane track region, while the latter provides heat and moisture to power incipient storms in the main track region.

One of the other important questions for the upcoming hurricane season is whether El Nino conditions will continue through the 2007 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Forecasts are that by summer it will die away and therefore not inhibit the spawning of hurricanes.

There were four hurricane seasons since 1949 with similar characteristics to October-November 2006, these were 1952, 1958, 1966, and 2003 all active years.

Although global surface temperatures have increased over the last century and over the last 30 years, there is no reliable data available to indicate increased hurricane frequency or intensity in any of the globeís seven tropical cyclone basins.

source : http://www.caribpro.com/Caribbean_Property_Magazine/index.php?pageid=83
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#234384 - 04/04/07 08:16 PM Re: Hurricane article [Re: tacogirl]
Otteralum Offline
I work for an insurance company and planning no bonus into my personal budget next year frown
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I will have a Belikin -- put it on klcman's tab.

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#234385 - 04/04/07 08:20 PM Re: Hurricane article [Re: Otteralum]
Ernie B Offline
Well OK, Otter. Go ahead and put it in mine then. smile
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#234386 - 04/04/07 08:22 PM Re: Hurricane article [Re: Ernie B]
Otteralum Offline
Sure thing E -- 100% of zero is still zero wink
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I will have a Belikin -- put it on klcman's tab.

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#234389 - 04/04/07 08:31 PM Re: Hurricane article [Re: Otteralum]
Ernie B Offline
No, No, No Otter. Put a bunch of zero's with a 10 in front of them. Please send cash. Wire trans. will be OK too.


Edited by immissing (04/04/07 08:32 PM)
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#234432 - 04/05/07 07:14 AM Re: Hurricane article [Re: Ernie B]
Chris Offline
I don't think you'll see the annual hurricane forecasters EVER predicting a quiet year any more. Look what happened in 2006....it was expected to be the End of the World as we knew it and it turned out to be whisper quiet hurricane-wise.

No criticism of the "experts" followed.

Imagine if they predict a quiet year and all hell breaks loose!

Here's the Official "Chris Hurricane Prediction 2007 thingy:"

1. There will be some tropical storms and hurricanes.

2. Some of the hurricanes will be strong or strong-ish.

3. We should keep our eyes open for hurricanes and tropical storms because in 2007 there will be some tropical storms and hurricanes.

4. The hurricane season for 2007 is expected.


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#234436 - 04/05/07 01:16 PM Re: Hurricane article [Re: Chris]
Otteralum Offline
Chris. Thank you. I have family on Panama City Beach in Florida. I forwarded your forecast and asked them to make plans accordingly.
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I will have a Belikin -- put it on klcman's tab.

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#234440 - 04/05/07 01:59 PM Re: Hurricane article [Re: Otteralum]
tacogirl Offline
Good one Chris that gave me a laugh this morning.

(I like the bbq celebration on the last day of the season.)
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#234441 - 04/05/07 02:02 PM Re: Hurricane article [Re: Otteralum]
mobow Offline
Well done Chris. Now I'm ready. thanx keith

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#234443 - 04/05/07 02:10 PM Re: Hurricane article [Re: mobow]
Sun&sand Offline
Too funny, Chris. I needed that chuckle...thanks.
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