<img align=left width=114 height=100 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9-30-10panim.gif"><img align=right width=177 height=251 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9-3011p10-keith-csm.gif">HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT SEP 30 2000

...KEITH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT NEARS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES
...130 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.
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<img align=right width=254 height=152 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9-309p3sm.jpg">
KEITH IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

HEAVY RAIN IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE
...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
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<img align=right width=246 height=175 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/9p_strikesm.gif">

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...18.1 N... 87.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT...SUNDAY.
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<A HREF="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/globe.jpg" target="new"><img align=right width=200 height=200 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/globesm.jpg" alt="click for larger version"></A>
FORECASTER LAWRENCE

HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000
CORRECTION...CENTER IS NOT INLAND IN 72 HOURS

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 270/02. THE GUIDANCE IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM SIX HOURS
AGO WITH THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWING KEITH IN A COL REGION BETWEEN
ANTICYLONES TO THE WEST AND EAST AND A WEAK TROUGH JUST NORTH AT 500
MB. THE GFDL AND AVIATION MODEL MOVE KEITH MOSTLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE UKMET IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO
MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS BELIZE AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 72
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY MOVING KEITH ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN...EXCEPT THAT THE
HEADING IS A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT HEADING
THAT KEITH TAKES...HURRICANE WINDS AND STORM SURGE SHOULD SHORTLY
AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. AND IF THE WESTWARD
DRIFT CONTINUES FOR MUCH LONGER...NORTHERN BELIZE COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE HURRICANE WINDS.

THE LAST RECON FIX AT 21Z GAVE 966 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE MAX
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB WAS 101 KNOTS. THIS IS A DROP OF 11 MB
IN 3 HOURS. A DROPSONDE SHOWED WINDS TO 120 KNOTS NEAR 900 MB
DECREASING TO 87 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. SINCE THEN SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO THE 100 TO 115 KNOT RANGE.
BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS FOR
THE 03Z ADVISORY AND FORECAST TO 110 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS. THE
STRENGHTENING IS MOST IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THAT SOME 25 PERCENT OF
THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER LAND. SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 24 TO 48
HOURS...SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
STRENGTHENING AGAIN AT 72 HOURS WHEN THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE
WELL AWAY FROM LAND IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 18.1N 87.1W 100 KTS
12HR VT 01/1200Z 18.3N 87.4W 110 KTS
24HR VT 02/0000Z 19.0N 87.5W 90 KTS...NEAR LAND
36HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 87.6W 80 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0000Z 21.0N 87.7W 70 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0000Z 24.0N 88.0W 85 KTS...OVER WATER


Official NOAA/NHC (Marine) Advisory


278
WTNT25 KNHC 010241
TCMAT5
HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1500
0300Z SUN OCT 01 2000
CORRECTION...CENTER IS NOT INLAND IN 72 HOURS

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 87.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
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Code:
 64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW  75NW.
 12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.
 
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WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 87.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 87.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.3N 87.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N 87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 87.1W

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 21.0N 87.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 24.0N 88.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

HURRICANE KEITH PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT SEP 30 2000

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2000
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Code:
 LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
  
 19.0N  87.5W      83  X  X  X 83   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  2  2
 20.0N  87.6W      29  1  1  X 31   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  2  2
 21.0N  87.7W      14  8  2  1 25   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  3  3
 MWCG 193N 814W     X  1  3  3  7   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  3  3
 MUCM 214N 779W     X  X  X  2  2   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  3  3
 MUCF 221N 805W     X  X  2  5  7   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  3  3
 MUSN 216N 826W     X  3  6  4 13   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  3  3
 MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  4  7 11   BURAS LA           X  X  X  5  5
 MUAN 219N 850W     2 10  5  2 19   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  4  4
 MMCZ 205N 869W    25  2  1  X 28   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  3  3
 MZBZ 175N 883W    32  X  X  X 32   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  2  2
 MGPB 157N 886W     1  X  X  1  2   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  3  3
 MHNJ 165N 859W     5  1  X  1  7   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  3  3
 MMFR 185N 926W     X  X  1  2  3   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  X  2  2
 MMMD 210N 897W     1 11  4  2 18   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   X  X  X  2  2
 MARATHON FL        X  X  X  6  6   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  X  2  2
 MIAMI FL           X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  4  4
 W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  5  5
 FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  7  7
 COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  7  7
 KEY WEST FL        X  X  1  6  7   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  5  5
 MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X  5  5   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  4  4
 FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  4  4   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X  3  3
 VENICE FL          X  X  X  4  4   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  X  4  4
 TAMPA FL           X  X  X  3  3
  
 COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
 A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM SUN
 FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
 B FROM  7PM SUN TO  7AM MON
 C FROM  7AM MON TO  7PM MON
 D FROM  7PM MON TO  7PM TUE
 E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM TUE
 X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
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