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#2378 - 10/01/00 07:06 AM midnite official update
Marty Offline
HURRICANE KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT SUN OCT 1 2000

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KEITH DRIFTING TOWARD THE YUCATAN/BELIZE
BORDER...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SHOULD BE IN THE EYE SHORTLY...


A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES
...105 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

KEITH IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH LATER TODAY. IF THE SLOW WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES MUCH
LONGER...THE CENTER COULD REACH THE COAST LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KEITH IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
HURRICANE TO GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF KEITH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

HEAVY RAIN IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE
...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...18.1 N... 87.4 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

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#2379 - 10/01/00 07:10 AM Re: midnite official update
Marty Offline
Tracking Info For Hurricane Keith
<font size=3 face="courier, courier new">
Code:
Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 09/28/00  16.1N 82.9W     30       1004     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 09/29/00  16.2N 83.2W     30       1004     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 09/29/00  16.2N 83.2W     35       1004     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 09/29/00  17.2N 84.3W     35       1004     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 09/29/00  17.6N 85.2W     50        995     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/30/00  18.1N 86.3W     70        985     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/30/00  18.0N 86.6W     80        984     Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/30/00  18.0N 86.8W    100        970     Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/01/00  18.1N 87.1W    115        960     Category 3 Hurricane
</font>

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#2380 - 10/07/00 10:31 PM Re: midnite official update
Anonymous
Thought I'd go looking at the history of Keith. As you can see, Keith was not a Hurricane until 3pm on Saturday, October 1.

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#2381 - 10/07/00 10:41 PM Re: midnite official update
Gerald Brown Offline
The 30th was Saturday. Amazing how quickly the thing grew.

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#2382 - 10/07/00 10:50 PM Re: midnite official update
Marty Offline
How about this one from John Lankford. He sure knows his hurricanes....

Midnite San Pedro, 10/1

We just had some terrible squalls go through. Power out in a few areas...

the storm is approxiamtely 55 miles due east of San Pedro and
approximately 10 miles north. I'd feel much better if that was 55 miles due north.
This dog is givin' us trouble. I hope the midnight advisory indicates
a little more northing. A little land friction slowdown wouldn't be
unwelcome, either. Gettin' noisy around here!


Better watch the outside excursions from now on -- gusts can hurl
debris. Sounds like I'm about to become a sheet metal roofing offender
myself.


>From the front porch, which is the lee side, I saw lightning. That
happens in the inner area of the eyewall. To the north, wasn't all
that close. The north island is getting worse than we are.


The latest Intellicast shot shows a second wall forming. Sort of
spirals off the interior one at first, then, if strengthening
continues, becomes concentric. Anyway, that one is going to slap us
after the eye passes, probably with winds from the south-southeast.


We're going to know Keith well before he bids us adieu.

John



[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-07-2000).]

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#2383 - 10/08/00 09:02 AM Re: midnite official update
Marty Offline
i

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