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#2404 - 10/01/00 10:41 AM Advisory - 3:00 AM CST - 30 Sep 2000
Mervino Offline
<img align=right width=259 height=247 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/sun6astrikesm.gif">Official NOAA/NHC Bulletin

970
WTNT35 KNHC 010849
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SUN OCT 01 2000

...KEITH STRENGTHENS EVEN FURTHER...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE...MENACING YUCATAN AND BELIZE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

KEITH HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TODAY. HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD MOTION
COULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA. A SLOW
NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KEITH A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE
...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.0 N... 87.3 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH


[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-01-2000).]
_________________________
So you've come to the tropics?
Mervino

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#2405 - 10/01/00 11:14 AM Re: Advisory - 3:00 AM CST - 30 Sep 2000
Gary Offline

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#2406 - 10/01/00 12:39 PM Re: Advisory - 3:00 AM CST - 30 Sep 2000
Marty Offline
HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000

KEITH HAS A SPECTACULAR APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED 15-20 N MI DIAMETER EYE. AIR FORCE RECON FOUND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 942 MB AND...FROM A GPS DROPWINDSONDE...
A MEAN WIND OF 140 KNOTS OVER THE LOWEST 150 METERS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. THIS REDUCES TO A SURFACE WIND SPEED NEAR
115 KNOTS. KEITH IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR TODAY IF THE INNER CORE REMAINS OVER
WATER. HOWEVER SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED...DUE
TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WHICH ARE COMMON IN INTENSE
HURRICANES. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER
YUCATAN. ASSUMING THE CENTER REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RESTRENGTHENING MAY BE LIMITED BY INCREASED SHEAR AND/OR DRIER AIR.

RECON FIXES SHOW A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION...SO KEITH REMAINS IN A WEAK
STEERING CURRENT AT THIS TIME. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC COL BETWEEN A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF REGION AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY MORE
DOMINANT ONE IN A FEW DAYS TIME...AND PRODUCE A NORTH-NORTHWEST
MOTION WHICH WOULD MOVE KEITH OVER EASTERN YUCATAN AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE MOSTLY
SPREAD FROM A NORTHWARD TO A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING
A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND BRINGING
KEITH INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS
ALSO SIMILAR TO THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE EXPERIMENTAL FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

ONE SHOULD RECALL THAT 48- AND 72-HR FORECAST POSITIONS ARE SUBJECT
TO ERRORS OF A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES.

FORECASTER PASCH
<font size=3 face="courier, courier new">
Code:
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN
 ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
   1  16.10  -82.90 09/28/21Z   25  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   2  16.20  -83.20 09/29/03Z   25  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   3  16.20  -83.20 09/29/09Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   4  17.20  -84.30 09/29/15Z   30  1004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 +12  17.50  -84.50 09/30/00Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
 +24  18.00  -84.70 09/30/12Z   40     - TROPICAL STORM
 +36  18.50  -85.00 10/01/00Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
 +48  19.50  -85.00 10/01/12Z   50     - TROPICAL STORM
 +72  20.50  -85.00 09/02/12Z   65     - HURRICANE-1
</font>

[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-01-2000).]

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