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#2445 - 10/01/00 02:15 PM Advisory - 6:00 A.M. CST
Mervino Offline
<img align=right width=133 height=115 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/6asunloop.gif">
WTNT35 KNHC 011155
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN OCT 01 2000

...DANGEROUS INNER CORE OF HURRICANE KEITH EDGING ONTO THE COASTS OF
YUCATAN AND BELIZE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

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<img align=right width=207 height=167 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/sun6aat200015.gif">
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

KEITH HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL
MOTION IS A DRIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY
TODAY...BUT THE DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY
PARTIALLY OVER LAND. A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE OVERNIGHT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES KEITH A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

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<img align=right width=156 height=195 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/11-keith-csm.gif">
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ISLANDS OFFSHORE BELIZE HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 69 MPH...
111 KM/HR.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE
...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
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<img align=right width=291 height=342 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/map6amtrack.gif">
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...18.2 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
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<img align=right width=222 height=169 hspace=8 vspace=8 src="http://AmbergrisCaye.com/art/keith/6asunsatellite.jpg">
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN





[This message has been edited by Marty (edited 10-01-2000).]
_________________________
So you've come to the tropics?
Mervino

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#2446 - 10/01/00 02:24 PM Re: Advisory - 6:00 A.M. CST
Marty Offline
Official NOAA/NHC (Marine) Advisory


377
WTNT25 KNHC 010831
TCMAT5
HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1500
0900Z SUN OCT 01 2000

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 87.3W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 87.3W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 87.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 87.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.7N 87.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 87.3W

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 24.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH

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