Now upped to CAT3 (111-130mph) around noon on the 5th.

time to put the shutters up, pull the boat,and take the planks out of the dock deck. dang

Okay, now its time to get serious. First things first - I want our Jim JanMohamed back on the island! I guess he won't be getting any rest this season.

Here you go. Midday Belize time the storm is projected to be centered at 17.5 north and 88.0 west. 110 kts.

That's us.

Good luck, start preparing.

Amanda

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 01, 2007

the last aircraft pass through the storm a few hours ago indicated
maximum flight level winds of 70 kt and the stepped frequency
microwave radiometer (sfmr) showed 60 kt winds at the surface. Thus
the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt...and could be a little
conservative as hints of an eye feature have been observed on
visible satellite images.

The intensity forecast appears to be straight-forward. The main
question is how fast the storm will intensify. All of the global
models show an extremely favorable upper-environment and the waters
of the Caribbean Sea are very warm. It is a little puzzling why the
GFDL/hwrf are so slow to strengthen the system. So far...the
statistical models have done very well with this storm...and the
NHC intensity forecast is just a little below the SHIPS/lgem
models. It is of note that probability of rapid intensification...
as diagnosed by SHIPS...is rather high.

Felix has resumed a motion of 280/16 after a brief westward jog this
morning. A persistent ridge to the north of the storm should steer
Felix on a west or west-northwestward track for the next couple
of days. Thereafter...the forecast hinges on how strong the ridge
remains over the Gulf of Mexico. The UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/hwrf allows
a high over the central Gulf Coast to shift eastward near Florida
and causes a more northwestward track of Felix in about 5 days.
However...the GFS/ECMWF keep the ridge in place and maintain Felix
on a west or west-northwestward motion. In general the guidance
has shifted a little farther north from six hours ago...and the
official forecast is nudged in that direction as well.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 01/2100z 12.7n 65.3w 60 kt
12hr VT 02/0600z 13.1n 67.9w 70 kt
24hr VT 02/1800z 13.8n 71.4w 75 kt
36hr VT 03/0600z 14.5n 74.8w 80 kt
48hr VT 03/1800z 15.2n 78.2w 90 kt
72hr VT 04/1800z 16.3n 83.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 05/1800z 17.5n 88.0w 110 kt
120hr VT 06/1800z 19.5n 92.0w 65 kt

$$
forecaster Blake/Avila

Felix is expected to move past
Honduras at about 17 mph, so will not linger as long to dump heavy rains.
Even so, Felix's rains could reach 10-15 inches over Honduras, Nicaragua,
Guatemala, and Belize. Officials in those nations need to prepare now for
the possibility that Felix could bring a major flooding disaster to their
nations.

+++ from http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html +++
Felix a major threat to Central America; new disturbance could develop
Posted By: JeffMasters at 3:09 PM GMT on September 01, 2007
Tropical Storm Felix lashed the islands of Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago,
Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines with winds near tropical storm
force and torrential rains this morning. Visible satellite loops show that
Felix is a small storm, but is steadily expanding in size and growing more
organized. Low level spiral bands have formed on the eastern side, and
there is one respectable upper-level outflow jet that has formed to the
storm's north. Dry air on the northwest side of Felix continues to hamper
its intensification, but the storm is small enough that dry air drawn in
from the north coast of South America has not been a problem.

Felix is a major danger to Central America

The latest GFDL model forecasts that Felix will intensify into a Category 2
hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Belize Wednesday. The SHIPS
intensity model is more aggressive, making Felix a Category 3 hurricane.
Given that the environment in the Caribbean is much the same as we saw for
Dean, I think we can expect a steady intensification of Felix to a Category
2 or 3 storm when it approaches the Honduras/Nicaragua border Monday night.
On the current projected track of Felix, it would pass just north of the
coast of Honduras, which would be an extremely dangerous situation for that
country.

When I started this thread 4 days ago, I hoped it would have a sudden death. Unfortunately not so. We all have to practice some positive thinking...........Back off Felix....Back off!!

WTF! The U.S. NHC is projecting a dead-on hit in Belize. Unlike Dean, I want this guy to continue heading due West with no turns North. Now, I'm just plain getting pissed

Damn we never got any " I partied with hurricane Dean" t-shirts out and now Felix is already taking over.

All of us who are in love with AC let's start practicing some positive thinking and mentally steer that SOB somewhere else.....we can do it!!