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#248014 - 08/31/07 10:43 PM TD6
SimonB Offline
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200706.html

WTNT31 KNHC 312046
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND ARUBA
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO
PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF MARGARITA.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA OVERNIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...295 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...COASTAL VENEZUELA INCLUDING OFFSHORE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND
CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.8 N...58.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
WWWW

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#248019 - 09/01/07 12:45 AM Re: TD6 [Re: SimonB]
Marty Offline
headed up haulover creek in early tracks

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#248045 - 09/01/07 03:18 PM Re: TD6 [Re: Marty]
SimonB Offline
The 5AM report upgrades TD6 to Tropical Storm Felix, models have it up to CAT2 hitting Belize early on Wednesday.

WTNT31 KNHC 010854
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...SIXTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2007 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
AND ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA... BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FELIX LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
7 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

WWWW

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#248050 - 09/01/07 04:05 PM Re: TD6 [Re: SimonB]
captjeff Offline
What the [#%!] is going on ??? who did belize tick off.??? Enough already..Go storm the other way ... Calm weather please..
_________________________
Living The Dream Every Day!

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#248054 - 09/01/07 04:35 PM Re: TD6 [Re: captjeff]
elbert Offline
I'm surprised/amazed how accurate the weather predictions are.
If they say 5 days in advance it will pass in these few miles it does. Whats the predictor saying about where its going to hit Belize this morning?
_________________________
The Dive Shops Daily Blog
http://scubalessonsbelize.blogspot.com/

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#248055 - 09/01/07 04:40 PM Re: TD6 [Re: elbert]
belizeonthebeach Offline
Marty's call is still accurate. I shows Felix's eye going over the Haulover bridge, putting us on the wrong side of the storm this time.

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