Well, we have now arrived at a difficult phase in regards to this hurricane - the waiting game.

Should I stay or should I go?

This is a small window of opportunity.

This morning the models have shifted the storm south, slamming into Nicaragua/Honduras and emerging the Gulf of Honduras briefly before entering Belize in the deep south.

Of course as the eyewall collapses and regenerates this track can change, fluctuations in speed of forward motion will affect the direction too.

We'll be keeping our eyes on this one today.

Continue to pray, it might work and spare us the brunt of this monster.

I wouldn't attempt to aid on such a life or death decision, but the good news is Felix has gone way south of track. And it's a good thing because he has become like Wilma at her worst with a devilishly tight eye and compact category 5 shape. The good thing is it looks like a southern track into Nicaragua/Honduras has established, possibly clearing Belize of the worst of any direct hit. BUT - hurricanes do strange things and can change course suddenly. ALSO they are still saying it will reemerge and hit very southern Belize after going back out over water from Honduras. So if it doesn't pull up by later today you could start feeling better in northern Belize.

There's going to be hell where this hits in Nicaragua.

Yes the storm has moved south. It is imperative that we in Belize do not let our guard down. LOVE FM is encouraging all Belizeans to stay on alert. The storm could go into the Bay of Honduras and sneak back up on us.

Remember Mitch, or was it Keith - the one that appeared to miss us completely then realised its mistake and came back for another go, and once it had found us decided to stay for a while. I wasn't here then, but people who were speak of it in awe.

Believe that was Mitch... Barefoot Skinny wrote a song about 'him'.. and there were paper placemats that showed the dance around Belize.. don't know if any of those are still in existance. Maybe ask at BC's, think they had one posted on the wall for some time.
Yes never too soon to let down your guard when a hurricane is in the neighbourhood.
Gail

Here is a good link for historical info
http://belizetrip0.tripod.com/belizeweather/id1.html

It was Mitch that did the dance around Belize

At the moment, Felix is aimed squarely at those of us in the south (I am between Dangriga and Placencia). But...

Felix is narrow (like Iris was) -- only 30 mile radius hurricane winds and about 100 mile radius TS -- so: devastating right where it lands and just a lot of wet and blow to each side.

And, from where it sits now (barring a Mitch) it will be scraping Honduras, meaning...

An inch further south and it'll fizzle out over Honduras (mudslides and loss of life there), an inch further north and it stays more over water and some place in southern Belize gets creamed, and another inch north of that and it wheels up to y'all there in the north and we southerners are getting off easy again...

Of course, this all presumes no unexpected change in the track between now and Wednesday morning.

Yeah, right.

'Lena

Regarding the stay-or-go quandry:

At present, I myself am up in the Seattle area on business and faced with the same question. I have decided not to go until afterward, if needed.

My reasoning is that, as uncertain as these tracks can be, and especially as narrow as Felix is, the probabilty of any particular village being hit is small.

Of course, some village is gonna get it in the teeth.

'Lena

Just a reminder to tune into reef radio for updates. Jim Janmohamed was speaking earlier. he is head of NEMO here and very solid information.

http://reefradiofm.tripod.com/

I am also doing updates on my blog http://tacogirlblog.blogspot.com/ so people can check or write comments in regarding people and information.

Still headed for Nicaragua and not pulling up. A pressure rise has occurred with wind decrease (slight weakening). Belizians should hope Honduras will rip Felix apart. That, unfortunately, will involve a bad situation for Hondurans.

Perhaps we are going to be able to enjoy a big sigh of relief. At the last 5pm edt report Felix has been predicted to hit Nicaragua and Honduras - and perhaps not even touch Belize. The storm is compact and swift which is a blessing.

San Pedro is boarded up tight and many folks have voluntarily left.

Although people have reacted swiftly and without panic it was absolutely heartwrenching looking at the faces of many that were leaving - since they are going into conditions much harsher than at home, no work, no income and uncertain if home and a job will be here upon their return.

Hurricane fatigue will certainly be a factor if there are any more scares this year. Most people's evacuation budget has probably been streched the limit after this run and people may be less quick to react in the future.

Let's hope that our islanders can keep their chins up and continue to act in such an admirable manner.

Please continue to think of us here in Belize and don't stop the prayers. I know we will be channeling our strong good thoughts to Nicaragua and Honduras tonight.

Have been feeling a little relieved that we may not get the worst of it but still getting all done and ready. Just heard that Jim Cantore has just arrived in Belize City so that is a little scary. We always said if we ever see him we are out of here!!!!!

the media went to cancun for the last one. and nothing happened there

from caye caulker....

How do you board up your place for a hurricane? With strips of boards? Big plywood pieces? Do you bolt them in, nail them in? Do you cover the entire window, or just parts of it? I think the boards across the windows and doors are real works of art. I wish I had the digital camera handy to photograph the different styles.

Here at Auxillou Suites, Immer took his time and cut the plywood pieces into exact sized parcels. So, they fix across the windows and doors in a patterned geometric shape. I think its a beautiful piece of art. He also didn't nail them in. No, that would have been too cheesy for him. He drilled into the cement walls putting in those metal things you screw bolts into, and then he bolted all the plywood pieces into their special place.

Every single piece is symmetrically placed. Awesome!

At Caye Caulker Condos down the road, they also have the plywood pieces bolted into the buildingl. But theirs is no ordinary bolting. First there are pieces bolted on horizontally, and then on top of that there are pieces bolted on in the opposite direction. Fabulous.

Across our office plywood is written:

Felix, Felix
go away
little Blayd
wants to play
Come again
another day

The house across the street from Caye Caulker Condos has strips of wood nailed across the windows. Neat!

Well, it would be worth marking the boards so that they fit into exactly the same places next time you need to board up. My wooden shutters are numbered, fit into the window frame and are bolted into place. Works great. Of course I also have some of the accordian aluminum shutters which are a piece of cake and work great if you want to secure the place while you away on holiday too.

Heres some interesting reading while you wait:
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/mitch/mitch.html

Interesting (unfortunate) read, Jesse. Thanks for posting.

Re: Amanda's post.

I spent a lot of the day running around and chatting with people and when I hit the water depot one of the staff I know well said "how much more of this can we take". We're all taking a hit from this business wise but for this person his biggest worry was that he had been unable to send a paycheque home for the last few weeks to support his family as he was being hit so hard financially (he works 3 jobs) and his income has dropped radically, much more so than in a regular low season.

It costs many of the workers a small fortune (in their terms) to leave their jobs for unpaid leave and travel back and forth to their homes to take care of their families every time they have to evacuate. You have to remember that a large portion of the workers on the island are here alone and support their families on the mainland without having to see them for weeks on end.

Thats a very sad reality Simon.

from a friend...
For those of us living downstream of the Macal River, it
was Heather Duplooy who, earlier today, posed the question about a warning
system in the event of a dam break.
The question was directed to BEL - PR person Vonetta Burrell informed
that the question was directed to the operators of the Dam, BECOL.
Below is a response from Gina Moro' BECOL'S PR person:*

*Dear ++,*

* Thank you for contacting us. Please note that BECOL has an Emergency
Preparedness Plan in place and would work with the National Emergency
Management Organization to ensure the safety of downstream residents. In the
case of such unlikely event, we advise you to listen and adhere to all NEMO
advisories. We would like to remind residents that a natural flood can be
far more serious than a dam break.*

* **Thank you,*

*GINA MORO, Public Relations Officer - BECOL*

huh?

I guess it depends on whether or not the resevoir had water in it at the time...